They called him "Kurdish Obama": Selahattin Demirtas was considered the main challenger of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan because of his charisma and political instinct. He once co-chairs the left-wing pro-Kurdish HDP party. In the fall of 2016 Erdogan Demirtas then arrested for alleged terrorist support. He had obviously become too dangerous for him.
Since then, Demirtas has been sitting in a fifteen-square-meter cell in the high-security wing in Edirne, in western Turkey. He has no TV, no radio. He is forbidden to contact other inmates. For a long time it looked as if Demirtas would not be released as long as Erdogan is in power. An intervention by the European Court of Human Rights has had no consequences.
Ozan Kose / AFP
Supporters of Selahattin Demirtas in Edirne in 2018: new hope
Now however movement comes into the procedure. A Turkish court dismissed Demirtas in early September from suspicion of terrorism. His lawyers say her client could soon be released from prison.
Demirtas return to politics would strengthen the opposition significantly
Until a few months ago, Turkish politics was still frozen, Erdogan seemed almighty at the latest after his victory in the presidential elections in early summer 2018. Suddenly, however, the balance of power is shifting. Since the surprising electoral success of the Social Democrat Ekrem Imamoglu in Istanbul in June, the opposition looks like a substitute. A return of Demirtas to Turkish politics would reinforce this dynamic.
Huseyin Aldemir / REUTERS
Imamoglu is a danger to Erdogan
Imamoglu has managed to persuade people over the first few months that another Turkey is capable of ensuring that the Erdogan rule, which for many Turks is now associated with repression and violence, does not last forever.
Imamoglu's Republican People's Party (CHP) is now ruling not only Istanbul. It has conquered in the local election five of the six largest cities, including the capital Ankara. According to calculations by the Istanbul think tank Edam, it oversees more than two thirds of the Turkish economy. Although Erdogan still controls the state institutions, including the judiciary. But the days when he could durchregieren undisturbed are over. More and more often, judges make independent decisions, as in the case of Demirtas.
For the head of state Imamoglu is also so dangerous because he not only inspires the secular, urban upper class, but also devout Muslims. At the Istanbul election, he took in ultra-conservative neighborhoods such as Fatih or Üsküdar, Erdogan's residence, a majority.
"The era of partiality is over," Imamoglu said after the election victory
The CHP is the party of state founder Atatürk. Among Muslims she is described as elitist and withdrawn. Imamoglu corrected this image. His mother is wearing a headscarf. In the election campaign he was photographed while breaking the fast. Imamoglu has scared the Conservatives that, in a change of power, discrimination against the pre-Erdogan era will start anew. "The era of partiality is over," he said after his electoral victory. "The era of law and justice has begun."
At the same time, the CHP politician, unlike many of his party friends in the past, demonstratively rehearses a close alliance with the Kurds. When Erdogan dropped HDP mayor in August and had him replaced by foreclosure officer, Imamoglu traveled to Diyarbakir for a solidarity visit, where he was celebrated like a pop star.
The HDP is currently down. Hundreds of officials were arrested for allegations of terrorism, along with Demirtas sits the former co-chair Figen Yüksekdag in prison. If Demirtas returned to politics, it would revive the party. The former human rights lawyer also addresses citizens who are not part of the Kurdish core constituency of the HDP. Together with Imamolgu he could form an alliance, as they have not yet existed in Turkey.
President Erdogan is under pressure as never before in his career
In addition, Erdogan is also confronted with resistance in its own camp. It was not until Friday that former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, a long-time Erdogan vassal, stepped out of the AKP. Even more serious for the President is that his former Minister of Economic Affairs, Ali Babacan, has announced that he will have his own party by the end of the year.
SEDAT SUNA / EPA-EFE / REX
Architect of the boom: Ali Babacan wants to start his own party
Babacan is considered the architect of the economic boom of the early Erdogan years. His party could appeal to those conservative voters who are suffering from the current economic crisis.
Although the next elections in Turkey are only scheduled for 2023, Erdogan opponents are already discussing a scenario of how the president would be chased out of office earlier. After that, the three opposition parties CHP, IYI and HDP and the Babacan supporters in the AKP would have to join forces to bring about a parliamentary referendum on a referendum on the presidential system again. Erdogan secured extensive powers in 2017 by referendum. Many MPs would like to reverse the system change.
The plan is risky. He assumes that parties that were previously enemies are working together in a disciplined manner. Erdogan has repeatedly reinvented himself in crisis situations. But through the trio of Imamoglu, Demirtas, Babacan, the president is under more pressure than ever before in his career.
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