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(CNN Spanish) - The attack on the world's largest oil processing plant on Saturday morning is a dramatic escalation in the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, even if the Iranians did not fire the drones or missiles responsible.
Several shells hit the Abiqaiq plant, starting a series of fires that quickly eliminated almost half of Saudi Arabia's oil production, 5% of the world's daily production, and raised fears about the security of global oil supplies.
It is not clear when Abiqaiq, operated by Saudi giant Aramco, will be fully operational again.
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The Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed the attack, saying that 10 drones had attacked Abiqaiq, as well as the Khurais oil field. But attacks of this scale and precision would represent a sudden and notable increase in Houthis' capabilities, and neither the United States nor Saudi Arabia is convinced of the attribution.
The United States quickly discounted the Houthi claim. On Saturday afternoon, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted: "Iran has launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply." He added: "There is no evidence that the attacks came from Yemen."
In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif accused Pompeo of participating in a hoax. He wrote on Twitter: “Having failed in the 'maximum pressure', @SecPompeo is turning to the 'maximum deception' of the United States. and his clients are trapped in Yemen due to the illusion that the superiority of weapons will lead to military victory. Blaming Iran will not end the disaster. ”
But where did this attack originate and who was behind?
The Houthis have sent dozens of drones and short-range ballistic missiles against Saudi Arabia in the past two years. Many have been intercepted by Saudi air defenses; others have fallen harmlessly. A few have caused damage and limited victims.
Houthi drones are based on Iranian models, often developed from North Korean technology. They are mostly short range, up to 186 miles (300 km). However, a panel of UN experts reported in January on the deployment of more extensive drones "that would allow Houthi forces to attack targets in the depths of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."
The UN panel said it had information that one had crashed within 18 miles (30 km) of Riyadh.
Even so, the maximum range of this system, called UAV-X, would be between 740 and 930 miles (1,200 and 1,500 km), depending on wind conditions. The distance from the parts of Yemen controlled by Houthis to Abqaiq is approximately 800 miles (1,300 km).
A source with knowledge of the incident told CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen on Saturday night that preliminary indications were that the drones / missiles "did not originate in Yemen and probably originated in Iraq." A second source in the Gulf region told CNN that, although there was no evidence yet, the indications were that the attack originated in southern Iraq.
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The pro-Iranian militia is well established in southern Iraq, and the Quds Force, the unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in charge of overseas operations, has a presence there. Earlier this year, some regional analysts assessed that a drone attack at a pumping station in Afif in northern Saudi Arabia originated in Iraq. But no strong evidence was presented.
The Iraqi government issued a statement on Sunday rejecting reports "on the use of its land to attack Saudi oil facilities."
The Houthis themselves have suggested, without providing any evidence, that they received help from inside the kingdom for these latest attacks. His spokesman, Yahya Saree, said the operation followed "an operation of precise intelligence and advanced monitoring and cooperation of honorable people within the kingdom."
Analysts believe that it means elements of the restless Shiite population in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia. Abqaiq is located between the predominantly Shiite area of Qatif and Ahsa, which has a significant Shiite minority population. But they warn that it is in the interest of the Houthis to try to provoke internal tensions and it seems far-fetched that local people have been able to help such an attack.
Wherever the attack originated and who pulled the trigger, these attacks are a radical change in what has already become a dangerous confrontation, with the sabotage of merchant ships in the Gulf and the serious deterioration of the situation in Yemen, as well as several air strikes against the Shiite militia camps in Iraq in recent months.
Although he did not confirm that he was behind the attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is prepared to attack pro-Iranian actors wherever they are considered a threat, even in Iraq.
No previous attack, since the Yemen conflict began four years ago, has interrupted the supply of oil. This has removed 5.7 million barrels per day from the market and demonstrated the vulnerability of the pumping heart of the Saudi Arabian oil industry.
Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in advanced air defense systems. Ayham Kamal of the Eurasia Group says that “the critical problem for the kingdom is structural; most of the air defense systems in Saudi Arabia are designed to defend against traditional threats and are poorly equipped to face asymmetric air threats such as drones. ”
That vulnerability increases when so many essential parts of the infrastructure - "storage, processing and compressor trains - are within a small area," he adds.
The attacks have attracted the international community, with the United States stating that it is ready to open its Strategic Petroleum Reserve if necessary, and President Donald Trump calling the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman.
At present, there is abundant oil in the market. OPEC and its producing ally, Russia, have reduced production this year to keep prices. But Saudi Arabia is normally the "swing producer" of the organization with the ability to reduce or increase the flow as needed. That ability is limited for now.
Much depends on the reports of damage, and what "solutions" could be possible to restore total production and calm the nerves of the markets. "The most critical elements of Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure include several layoffs," says Kamal.
How Saudi Arabia will respond in other ways, such as redoubling its military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, remains to be seen.
Aqeel Najim and Sara Mazloumsaki, both of CNN, contributed to this report.
Drone Attacks Oil