If one believes Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, then in the parliamentary election on Tuesday, the survival of the Israeli state is at stake. If you believe his challenger Benny Gantz, then it is about the survival of democracy. If you believe the ultra-Orthodox, then voters decide whether Israel is still a Jewish state in the future.
The vote on Tuesday is the 22nd general election in Israel since 1949 and the second this year. So why do politicians from all parties call this election for the fateful election?
In the election on April 9, Netanyahu's Likud party and Gantz's alliance were blue-and-white - they each won 35 mandates. It quickly became clear from the cut of the other parties that Netanyahu alone had the chance to forge a coalition that would leave at least 61 out of the 120 Knesset members behind. The formation of the government failed, however, at the quarrel within the right-wing camp between the ultra-Orthodox and the secular party Our House Israel by Avigdor Lieberman.
So again on 17 September elected. Netanyahu has spent the goal of forming a government without Lieberman. That should be difficult. According to recent surveys, Lieberman can count on ten mandates - twice as many as in April. (Read more about the various alliances that are taking part in the election.)
For Netanyahu, not only the office of Prime Minister is at stake. A defeat for the 69-year-old could also mean the next step on the way to prison. Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit plans to announce that he is accusing Netanyahu of corruption later this year. Mandelblit is a longtime Likud member - nevertheless, an indictment against the head of government is likely. The police had already recommended an indictment in three cases last year.
Abir Sultan / Pool via REUTERS
Avichai Mandelblit: Netanyahu's fate is in his hands
By law, Netanyahu is not forced to resign in the event of an indictment. In addition, it is likely that he will introduce two laws into the Knesset if he succeeds in forming a government: one that gives him immunity. And a second, which prohibits the Supreme Court from annulling this law and future laws passed by the Knesset. Several parties from the right-wing camp have already signaled that they would support this project.
If Netanyahu fails, he faces a lawsuit and a conviction. The case of Ehud Olmert shows that the Israeli judiciary is not afraid to put former heads of government behind bars. Netanyahu's predecessor was sentenced to more than two years in prison for infidelity in 2012.
Because it's all about Netanyahu, he dropped all inhibitions in the election campaign:
- He described the critical Israeli newspapers and television stations that have exposed numerous scandals in his environment as "Soviet media" who wanted to overthrow him.
- He spread the lie that Iran's revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei said he wanted Benny Gantz to serve as Israeli head of state.
- Netanyahu's Facebook profile sent a message warning against a government of "Arabs who want to destroy us all - women, children and men - and allow a nuclear Iran that will kill us". Facebook classified the message as hate speech and locked the chatbot for 24 hours.
- Shortly before the election, Netanyahu wanted to whip up a law that would allow party representatives to film in the polling booths. Above all, this project was intended to discourage the Arab minority from voting - but failed in the relevant parliamentary committee.
On the other hand, Netanyahu's announcement that he wants to annex the Jordan Valley, and later parts of the West Bank, in the event of his re-election, is downright harmless, because this position in Israel is largely consensus anyway.
In the past 25 years, there has been little more electoral campaigner in Israel than Netanyahu. But this election campaign is not going well for the Likud boss. He was not lucky and then there was bad luck too.
- Netanyahu has boasted of his excellent relations with US President Donald Trump. But with the resignation of Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton, there is mounting evidence that the US President is not only ready to meet with Iran's head of government, Hassan Rohani, but is also considering concessions to Tehran to facilitate a meeting. The mere fact that a personal conversation between Trump and Rohani is under discussion weakens Netanyahu's position.
- When a rocket alert was triggered during a campaign appearance in Ashdod near the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu interrupted his speech. Bodyguards brought the prime minister to safety while his followers remained unprotected in front of the stage. The incident damaged his reputation as "Mr. Security".
תיעוד: נתניהו מתפנה מאולם אירועים באשדוד בזמן אזעקה pic.twitter.com/a1jLYqpLQ3
- matan tzuri מתן צורי (@MatanTzuri) September 10, 2019Netanyahu's luck is that his challenger Gantz has also put on a rather weak campaign. The Knesset has therefore received the character of a referendum on Netanyahu: It is primarily about whether the Israelis want four more years with Netanyahu. Less about whether they consider Gantz the more capable politician.
It is not unlikely that in the end neither of them will become head of government. Given the fragmented party landscape, a large coalition of Likud and Blue and White could be the only stable constellation to receive at least 61 Knesset mandates. However, Gantz has stated that he will not enter into a coalition with the Likud under Netanyahu's leadership. Then there were only two options: either the prime minister resigns voluntarily. Or rivals in the Likud venture the palace revolt and overthrow Netanyahu to keep the party in power.
