For a while, the MEPs from CDU and CSU can still press. With two new deputy posts to occupy at the head of the European People's Party (EPP), there are more and more indications that one of these seats could go to a representative of Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party. But no Fidesz representative has been nominated for the vote this Tuesday. The question of whether they should vote for him, the German MEPs first do not have to answer.
But the problem is only postponed. At the beginning of November, Croatian parliamentarian Dubravka Suica is joining the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyens. "The place is for the Hungarians," says the EPP. The German MPs know that too.
For the EPP, the decision is a balancing act. Although Fidesz - like CDU and CSU from Germany - belongs to the party family of the EPP, the membership rights are suspended. So it had decided the governing bodies of the party, in protest, for example, against the controversial judicial laws of Orbán, but also to increase the chances for the then top candidate Manfred Weber (CSU) in the European elections. Immediately after the election, the Hungarians had to renounce a parliamentary vice, although they had the job for proportional reasons actually granted.
The EPP is reluctant
But now the firewalls threaten to invade. The first signs of détente were the election of Fidesz's wife Lívia Járóka as Parliamentary Vice-President, also with votes from the EPP. At the end of November, the EPP party congress will be in Zagreb. Then one could clarify the handling of Orbán's people. At about the same time, a report by the expert group on former EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy is expected. He will investigate how the constitutional problems of Hungary fit in with the values of the EPP. As the "world" reported, the report could be quite favorable for Orbán.
An initial test for future relations with Fidesz is likely to be the hearing of the Hungarian candidate for Ursula von der Leyen's EU Commission. Lazslo Trócsányi has many opponents in the EU Parliament, is regarded as the architect of Orbán's controversial judicial reforms and, according to information of the SPIEGEL, it was not always so with the separation of his economic and political interests.
But while many MEPs are determined to fail the man at the hearing, this sounds much more cautious in the EPP. "He's not even Fidesz party member," it says.
On Tuesday, EPP leader Weber pleaded for giving Trócsányi a "chance to convince" at the hearings. The request is not without irony, but Trócsányi is considered the architect of many of Orbán's controversial reforms, which prompted the European Parliament last September to open a constitutional procedure against Hungary.
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The relaxation signals in the EPP are in clear contrast to the discussions among the EU member states. In a joint statement on Monday, Germany and France described the situation in Hungary as "worrying". "The dangers to the rule of law and fundamental rights in Hungary affect us all," it said.
Previously, the EU Council of Ministers had for the first time heard of Hungary's ongoing criminal proceedings under Article 7 of the EU Treaties, which in extreme cases could lead to the suspension of Hungary's EU membership. The Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga described the procedure as politically motivated. Your country has just "different views on some topics".
France's Secretary of State for Europe, Amélie de Montchalin, said Germany and France wanted a further referral to the Council of Ministers "until our concerns are cleared up". The next step in the Article 7 procedure would be to establish a "clear risk of serious injury" to EU core values in Hungary. This would require a four-fifths majority of the other member countries.
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Future EU Commissioners: From the Leyens WunschteamAccordingly, the Hungarians show themselves outside the meeting room. "The anti-Hungary, pro-migration lobby is back in business," wrote Orbán spokesman Zoltán Kovacs in a blog post on Monday. He published an official 158-page note from the Hungarian government on the Article 7 hearing. According to Kovács, "the same left-liberal forces want revenge on Hungary for opposing the influx of migrants." He hopes for the future EU Commission President von der Leyen. Unlike current incumbent Jean-Claude Juncker, "Miss Leyen" will understand what Orbán means when he says "that the Hungarians come first".
However, the Hungarians are not only concerned with the European Commission. Various member countries no longer want to watch the democratization in the country. Above all, Finland, which currently has the rotating EU Council Presidency on Budapest's grief. The Finns had put the Article 7 Hearing of Hungary and the negotiations on the next seven-year EU budget together on the agenda for the ministerial meeting on Monday.
For Orbán, this is highly explosive, as his opponents are apparently determined to turn down the money if necessary: The payment of EU funds, on which Hungary's economy is highly dependent, should in future be linked to compliance with EU core values.
What majority is needed to withdraw money from Hungary?
Such a mechanism should be laid down in the next seven-year budget of the EU, which will apply from 2021, according to the will of Germany and other countries. From Berlin, there is a clear message: A multi-year budget without rule of law mechanism will not agree.
Insiders consider it likely that the mechanism will flow into the budget - the question is, in what form. Germany and other states support a proposal from the European Commission. If it recommends withdrawing money from a country because of the systematic weakening of the rule of law, this is automatically accepted in the Council of the Member States - unless a qualified majority of 15 Member States, representing 65 per cent of the EU population, voted against.
According to diplomats, Hungary and Poland want to reverse this procedure: a qualified majority would then have to vote in favor of withdrawing money. A blockade would be much easier to organize.
It will still take until a decision. In Brussels, it is likely that the final of the conflict will fall into the second half of 2020 - into the German Council Presidency.