The new elections in Israel should provide clarity: because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to form a majority after the April election, the country had to re-elect. Today, Israel was elected a second time - and nothing is clearer.
Netanyahu's Likud and Benny Gantz's center-right alliance blue-and-white are almost on par. According to first forecasts
- Likud comes to 31 to 33 out of 120 Knesset mandates,
- Blue-white on 32 to 34 mandates.
The first forecasts are error-prone, and often the numbers still turn during the night. But already at this point in time one thing seems to be certain: Neither Netanyahu nor Gantz will be able to form a coalition from scratch. It threatens the same stalemate that had made the re-election at all necessary.
For Netanyahu, this election outcome could mean the end. Since 2009, Israel's Prime Minister has ruled the country throughout. Now he stumbles - and could fall.
In the process, Netanyahu fought for his throne until the end. Israel's archenemy publicly attacked Iran, promising to annex parts of the West Bank and the Palestinian city of Hebron in the event of an electoral victory. It did not help: "Bibi," as the Israelis call it, lost voters.
Voices lost to the personal enemy
Especially to his personal enemy: Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman is founder and head of the party Israel Beitenu, in German "Our Home Israel". This right-wing party has been chosen by Russian-speaking immigrants in the past. Most recently, however, Lieberman turned to the mass of Israelis and staged himself as an antidote to Netanyahu: politically conservative but not religious. With this tactic, Israel Beitenu was predicted to have eight to ten out of 120 seats in parliament. So far, Lieberman's party is represented by five MPs in the Knesset.
The fate of an entire country depends on these mandates. Israel's party landscape is fragmented, a government formation without the participation of Israel Beitenu hardly possible. This is precisely the reason for today's election: Lieberman, long-time Netanyahu's ally, refused to join a right-wing coalition after the first vote in April. It was a mixture of personal feud and power calculus. Both worked: without the seats of Israel Beitenu Netanyahu could not form a majority.
During the election campaign, Lieberman repeatedly advocated a coalition of Israel Beitenu, the opposition center coalition Blue-White and Netanyahu Likud. His condition: Netanyahu must go. Even Benny Gantz does not want to govern with Netanyahu.
Gantz does not get enough coalition mandates together
Gantz is unlikely to set up a coalition of his own: according to forecasts, Blue-White won more mandates than Netanyahu's Likud. But the number of possible coalition partners is smaller for the more moderate Gantz. Even with the help of the Arab-Israeli parties, a center-left coalition under blue-white would not have the necessary majority of 61 seats.
Now there are only a few options. One: Netanyahu leaves - or is gone from his party - and makes way for the grand coalition of Likud, Blue-White and Israel Beitenu.
The other: a third round of voting.
Netanyahu will do anything to prevent it. For him, it's not just about political power, it also threatens an indictment in three corruption cases. A right-wing religious coalition would have allowed Netanyahu to launch a law to protect him from prosecution. For this it will - if the forecasts prove to be true - at least for now at least not come.