Israel: Benjamin Netanyahu threatens a coup in the Likud

Benjamin Netanyahu has tried everything to convince Israeli voters: TV interviews were part of his strategy, classic campaign appearances to supporters of his right-wing Likud party - and an aggressive social media campaign.

On Tuesday afternoon, the 69-year-old Prime Minister even surrounded by bodyguards with a megaphone in the central bus station of Jerusalem and warned passers-by in the manner of a market crier, the Arab Israelis were particularly numerous to vote, which was a danger. In the background of this live performance you could see the public toilets of the bus stop. The experienced politician, who has been Prime Minister for ten consecutive years, looked desperate, not statesmanship.

His use has probably brought him nothing. Although there is no official final result, that will be expected in the coming days. So far, just over 90 percent of the votes have been counted. But the trend is clear: even after the second parliamentary election this year, Netanyahu has reached no government majority.

In Israel, there is still a right-wing majority

There is - as already after the early elections in the spring - a stalemate between his Likud party and the center alliance blue and white by former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz. Netanyahu currently has 31 seats and Gantz 32.

However, the decisive factor is not the performance of the individual parties, but that of the blocks divided in the left-right scheme. And here it shows: There is still a majority in Israel who chooses right.

• The right-wing and religious parties, which Netanyahu sees as his natural political partner, come to 55 seats, according to recent projections. Exceptions to this rule are Avigdor Lieberman, the kingmaker of this election. (Read here a portrait of the politician) He is also clearly located in the right camp, but wants Netanyahu, his former boss, political companions and today's rivals, overthrow. His nine seats are likely to decide on the next premier.
• The center-left bloc around Benny Gantz has 43 seats - excluding the Arab parties (12 seats), which have become the third largest power in the alliance.

A stable government needs at least 61 seats, because the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, has 120 seats.

Tricky government formation - new elections possible

The result: the formation of a government becomes difficult. And should take a long time. There are currently three options :

• A national unity government of Likud, Blue-White and Avigdor Liebermans party Israel Beitenu. But that comes only when the Likud party opposes its long-time party leader Netanyahu. Because Blue-White will not enter into any government with Netanyahu, as will Lieberman, who after the election explicitly spoke out in favor of a unity government.
• Another - far more unrealistic - option would be an alliance of center-left parties around Benny Gantz along with Avigdor Lieberman and the Arab parties. However, the ultra-nationalist Lieberman is unlikely to want to coalesce with the Arab parties - and vice versa.
• The third option would be to choose once more . But all parties want to avoid this scenario.

President Reuven Rivlin may try to decide who to call for government formation as soon as possible, because starting in late September Israel's high Jewish holidays will continue until mid-October.

Video analysis of the Israel election: "Netanyahu has to watch"

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Gali Tibbon / AFP / AP / DPA; THE MIRROR

In addition, there are enough tasks that a new government must tackle:

• In addition to the conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the shadow war with Iran, there are also numerous domestic policy debates that must be conducted after almost ten months of continuous election campaign.
• These include the debate on compulsory military service for the ultra-Orthodox, which was one of the main reasons for the collapse of the Netanyahu government last winter.

A unity government would be needed to handle these mammoth tasks. But a revolt in Likud against Netanyahu seemed so far illusory. Since 2005 he leads the party.

Netanyahu is weak - that makes him dangerous for his opponents

Over the years he has chilled, outmaneuvered or sacked internal rivals. The result: The time-honored party turned into a Netanyahu-focused troupe.

As late as August, the PM had asked his party members to swear allegiance to him in writing. Whether this oath is still valid, is questionable. Because Netanyahu is battered, for the second time he could not win a clear victory in the elections.

The long-term premier has lost its magic power, it seems, and will likely find itself in court in the coming weeks due to three corruption scandals. Intrepid opponents could now try to exploit his weakness, depose him and thus clear the way for the entry of the Likud into a unity government. But it is also clear that the more Netanyahu is cornered, the harder he will fight.