Venezuela - Juan Guaidó: Things are getting tight for the interim president

It will be tight for Juan Guaidó, Venezuela's young and charismatic opposition leader. Nine months ago, the president of the National Assembly had called himself the interim president, citing the constitution. But in recent days Guaidó had to take several blows:

• His mentor was first sawed off in Washington with John Bolton. US President Donald Trump had lost patience with his security adviser, and Venezuela was one of the motives: Bolton had promised him months ago a rapid regime change in Caracas, in which Guaidó should play a key role. But the fall of Maduro was missing, Bolton turned out as well as his protege in Caracas as a paper tiger.
• Then, a Colombian NGO released photos showing Guaidó in February along with two right-wing Colombian paramilitaries of the gang Los Rastrojos, suspected of drug trafficking. The Venezuelan Procuratorate has now opened a lawsuit against him. He did not know who he was posing for a selfie with, assures Guaidó. But that's hard to believe.
• Finally, the common opposition front is crumbling. On Monday, several leaders of smaller parties signed an agreement with the government to negotiate with Maduro for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Among other things, a reform of the supreme election authority CNE is under discussion, which has so far been controlled by the government. Guaidó is not involved in the talks.

Maduro has managed to split his opponents again

Although the parties involved have little support in the population, the symbolic importance of the agreement is not to be underestimated: Once again, Maduro has managed to split its opponents. For him, the agreement is a great propaganda success.

AFP PHOTO / VENEZUELAN PRESIDENCY

Nicolás Maduro clocks successfully

A few days ago, Guaidó had announced the end of international efforts for a negotiated settlement, negotiated by Norway on the Caribbean island of Barbados, after Maduro had left the dialogue.

Now Maduro can act as a friend of peace and mediator, without that it will cost many concessions: The bargaining power of the small parties is low, they can hardly exert pressure. In addition, the agreement may pave the way for the ruling socialists to return to the National Assembly, which has so far been controlled by the opposition. Parliament is the last bastion of the Maduro opponents.

Trump unintentionally promotes the collapse of the state

What's next? A military solution is as good as impossible. Trump is not interested in a war adventure in South America a year before the elections. He is pushing for a quick transition; What role Guaidó should play here is unclear. A way out of the Venezuelan drama will only succeed if Maduro and his supporters are involved in the solution.

The Americans have already signaled that they would accept Maduro's candidacy in free elections, but he is not interested in early presidential elections. How long he can sit the conflict is open: The sanctions of Americans make it difficult for him to access foreign currency, they strangle the sluggish economy. The benefice with which he can keep his supporters at the bar, are becoming increasingly scarce.

At the same time, the sanctions continue to drive the entire system into illegality. Unintentionally Trump promotes the disintegration of the state and helps guerrillas and gangsters who plunder the resource-rich nation.

The international community must put pressure

Guaidó is not out of the game despite the many political defeats. He is the only representative of the opposition to have the charisma and stature to defeat Maduro at the ballot box. Now the international community is in demand again: it must increase the pressure for a negotiated solution on both sides. You do not have to tighten the sanctions, as the Americans demand, only exacerbates the misery and drives even more Venezuelans abroad.

• A first step would be for Washington to rule out a military solution once and for all. As long as she does not do that, the US government only helps the radicals on both sides: the hawks in the opposition will not negotiate seriously, and at the same time the threat of invasion welds the clique around Maduro together.
• In a second step, Washington must seriously seek the conversation with Maduro. All attempts to sow dispute with conspiracy theories and play off their supporters against each other have failed. Even the opposition will only take negotiations seriously if Trump is behind it.

He runs the risk of bouncing off the large communities of exiled Venezuelans and Cubans in Florida, which could be crucial in the coming year's US elections. But if he does nothing, he is also weak.