The core of the Brexit drama contains a great deal of bitter irony. Ironically, the attempt to prevent a new hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland threatens to prevent a withdrawal agreement - and could thus lead to a hard line. If the UK leaves the EU unregulated on 31 October, the currently invisible demarcation line between the Republic of Ireland and the Kingdom of Northern Ireland would become overnight at the EU's external border - at which point the Irish government would have to carry out customs controls.
In light of the possible consequences, ranging from a deep economic crisis to a renewed flare-up of bloody unrest in the former civil war country, Dublin's policy followed until recently the motto: It can not be, which should not be. Until the summer, the Irish government simply refused to prepare border controls. Even that, it is feared, could endanger the fragile peace process on the island.
But these times are now over: Ireland prepares border controls - albeit reluctantly and accompanied by rhetorical egg dances. On a "hypothetical level", after Brexit, there would be controls on goods and livestock in airports, seaports and companies, said Ireland's Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in early September. Some of them might also have to take place "near the border". At the same time, Varadkar emphasized, one should not assume that there will actually be controls.
"The tone towards Ireland grew rougher"
A few months ago, the Irish government refused to publicly consider border controls. Last week, Irish Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney warned of "riots" in such a case. The other EU states initially considered the Irish inaction as inactive because they considered a no-deal Brexit to be unlikely anyway. "No one believed that the British could be so stupid as to risk or even aim for a no deal," says an EU diplomat. In the early summer, however, that has changed - "and thus the tone against Ireland rougher".
The other EU countries made it clear to Dublin in May and June that EU external borders would have to be controlled - even if one of them was on the Irish island. Otherwise, the EU fears that a hole in the internal market will emerge on the Irish island. Goods imported into Ireland can circulate freely in the rest of the EU, that is the rule. It presupposes, however, that close checks are being carried out at the border with third countries - after Brexit, including the United Kingdom.
Johannes Eisele / AFP
British PM Johnson: Better "dead in the ditch" as the deadline extension for the Brexit
If the Irish government fails to do so, they may need to be mixed between Ireland and the continent. "This message has now arrived," says a Brussels official. The confirmation was provided by Vice President Coveney. "If we are not careful, we will not take the necessary steps to protect the integrity of the single market," he told business officials in Dublin in early September. "And then our goods would be controlled on import to France, Germany or Belgium." That would be extremely damaging to the Irish economy. "We can not and will not let that happen."
How exactly that is to be prevented remains questionable. The checks for a no-deal Brexit would not be introduced "overnight" but over a period of several weeks, Coveney said a few days after his appearance in Dublin. Also, the checks would be "not permanent". How quickly they could disappear, where they took place, and how exactly they looked - is something the Irish government is silent on. "We're working out details with the European Commission," Varadkar said last.
Is Johnson going for the Northern Ireland backstop?
After all, the spectacular defeat that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered on Tuesday from the Supreme Court could perhaps bring a solution. Parliament reappeared this Wednesday after the court ruling and now has every opportunity to prevent it leaving without agreements. Johnson, however, wants to continue leading his country out of the EU on 31 October - and has stressed that he prefers to lie "dead in the ditch" rather than apply for a further extension of time in Brussels.
That leaves him with only one way out: he has to close a deal with the EU by the end of October, somehow. One solution could be to re-limit the so-called backstop - the clause in the exit agreement aimed at preventing a hard border on the Irish island - to Northern Ireland rather than leaving the entire UK in the EU Customs Union.
The rest of the EU would be pleased with such a pure Northern Ireland backstop - especially since it would correspond to their original proposal, the Johnsons predecessor Theresa May had still rejected. "We are open to it," says an EU diplomat. "It depends on the British."
