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SPIEGEL survey on Thuringia: Left, CDU and AfD head-to-head races

2019-09-26T14:07:43.335Z

A month before the Thuringia election is a SPIEGEL survey according to a three-way battle for the top position. The ruling red-red-green alliance would no longer have a majority.




It's currently running into a tight race between Left, CDU and AfD. Four weeks before the state elections in Thuringia on 27 October, the three parties are almost equal. This results from a representative survey of the opinion research institute Civey for the SPIEGEL.

Accordingly, the left of Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow is currently around 25 percent, the CDU follows with about 24 percent and the AfD reaches about 22 percent. The sampling error is 2.7 percent.

Ramelow governs in the fifth year with a red-red-green alliance in Erfurt. However, according to the SPIEGEL survey, his coalition currently has no more majority: the partners reach just under 43 percent.

Because Left and AfD are strong, a very complicated coalition formation is to be expected. For example, the coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens in Thuringia, which is targeted in Saxony and Brandenburg, currently has no majority. And Thuringia's CDU lead candidate Mike Mohring has ruled out both a coalition with the Left and the AfD.

The Greens reach in the survey about 9 percent, the SPD 8th The FDP fights with the five-percent mark. 3035 people were interviewed between the 2nd and 26th of September.

The right-wing populists have apparently not been harmed by the recent debate over their top candidate Björn Höcke of the party's nationalist "wing" network. Höcke had wanted to repeat an interview with the ZDF, because he was not prepared for the questions, according to his spokesman. The ZDF journalist dismissed this request as completely unusual, whereupon Höcke and his speaker broke off the discussion after a short discussion (read more about why Höcke loses importance in his party, read here).

Thuringia's CDU wants to return to the government after five years on the Opposition Bank. The aim of the state parliament election is to become the strongest party and to take responsibility again, said CDU chief Mike Mohring a few days ago. "The question is, will Thuringia be governed in the future by the margins or from the middle," said Mohring with reference to Left and AfD.

State election Saxony 2019

Final result

List voices Result

Shares in percent

CDU

32.1

-7.3

The left

10.4

-8.5

SPD

7.7

-4.7

AFD

27.5

+17.7

green

8.6

+2.9

FDP

4.5

+0.7

Free voters

3.4

+1.8

allocation of seats

Total: 119

Majority: 60 seats

14

10

12

45

38

The left (14)

SPD (10)

Green (12)

CDU (45)

AfD (38)

Source: Provincial Returning Officer

Results in detail

According to the results of the survey in Thuringia, the polarization between the governing parties and the AfD is also intensifying there - as it had been in the provincial election campaigns in Saxony and Brandenburg. In Saxony, the ruling since 1990 CDU fell to a new low (32 percent), the AFD came to 27.5 percent - their best state election result ever.

Landtag election Brandenburg 2019

Final result

Second vote result

Shares in percent

SPD

26.2

-5.7

CDU

15.6

-7.4

The left

10.7

-7.9

AFD

23.5

+11.3

green

10.8

+4.6

BVB / Free Voters

5

+2.3

FDP

4.1

+2.6

other

4.1

+0.2

allocation of seats

Total: 88

Majority: 45 seats

10

25

10

5

15

23

The left (10)

SPD (25)

Green (10)

BVB / Free Voters (5)

CDU (15)

AfD (23)

Source: Provincial Returning Officer

Results in detail

In Brandenburg, the Social Democrats took 26.2 percent of the vote. The AfD came second with 23.5 percent just behind in second place (2014: 12.2). The traditionally weak CDU in Brandenburg fell to 15.6 percent (2014: 23.0) on their worst national result and now ranks - as in the European elections in May - behind the AfD in third place.


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Source: spiegel

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