From a purely arithmetical point of view, the answer is clear: in short, each of the parties elected to parliament, with the exception of the neos, would have a sufficient majority - with the Social Democrats, the Freemen and also with the Greens. The currently prevailing assumption that Austria's Greens are already the natural junior partner in a coalition with Kurz 'conservative ÖVP after their electoral victory, is obvious, but comes too early.
Why? Hit 'at Bowl.
More precisely: Wolfgang Schüssel. The former ÖVP leader and chancellor, praised by party friends for his "iron bargaining back", governed the ÖVP from 1995 to 2007 and Austria from 2000 to 2006. Schüssel is regarded as the foster father of Sebastian Kurz (a Nahverhältnis, both deny) and as unequaled in the art of demanding maximum potential for suffering from potential coalition partners.
1999: The ÖVP landed on election night behind the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the Freedom Party (FPÖ) only in third place, but after months of haggling the chancellor: Schüssel had first brought the left wing of the SPÖ with exaggerated demands to despair and parallel with Let Jörg Haider's right-wing populist FPÖ negotiate whether - for reasons of appearance - she would not leave him the helm in a coalition. Schüssel came through with his maneuver.
2003: Electoral winner Schüssel negotiated with the Greens for a long time over a joint government until the still inexperienced representatives of the ecology party at the end of a long, inconclusive night the towel threw. A step that Schüssel seemed to have been waiting for: He pulled out the recognizable, disheveled bride waiting in the background, the deeply divided FPÖ, and made an alliance with her a second time.
National Council election 2019
Preliminary final result without absentee ballot
distribution of votes
Shares in percent
ÖVP
38.4
+6.9
SPÖ
21.5
-5.4
FPÖ
17.3
-8.7
Neos
7.4
+2.1
List now
1.9
-2.5
green
12.4
+8.6
Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior Austria
Results in detail
One of the Green negotiators at that time, Werner Kogler, is now, 16 years later, head of the party. Another, Alexander Van der Bellen, has since risen to become Federal President. Secretary of State for Finance could have become one, Vice Chancellor the other if one had agreed in 2003. That this did not happen, was due to the stubbornness of Schüssels, who wanted to buy new interceptors for the army, say one; it was the stubborn green fundis, the others say.
Lisi Niesner / REUTERS
Green Federal President Van der Bellen: Now a key role
On Kogler and Van der Bellen, among other things, it will now arrive at the question of whether with more than a decade and a half decades delay still comes about, what then failed. From a purely mathematical point of view, the ÖVP and the Greens would have a small but sufficient majority. But because two-thirds of the green base of a liaison with the conservatives are skeptical, so far is also decorated Kogler. He, who accused the ÖVP "Scheissdreck-Populismus" in conjunction with the FPÖ and derided the closest circle around Sebastian Kurz as "cult members of the chancellor actor", currently believes he can reach out his hand.
The Green Chief Negotiator of 2003, however, Van der Bellen, is known since his election to head of state to maintain an intact, if not even trouble-free channel to Sebastian Kurz. The Federal President will now play a key role in determining the order and direction of the first exploratory talks.
What options does Kurz have, and how likely is he to pull them?
- For serious, possibly successful negotiations with the Greens at the end of the talks, there would be two election winners coming together, whose collective new beginning would have the magic of the unconsumed; in the western provinces of Tyrol, Vorarlberg and Salzburg, both parties are already working together at government level. On the other hand, economic and social policy, including environmental policy and migration issues, would require considerable willingness to compromise on both sides.
- A coalition with the SPÖ , shrunk to a historic low, would guarantee a stable majority, but make it short-lived to continue the promised path in social and security policy; the SPÖ demands a legal entitlement to the four-day week, more leave for employees and more say for their representatives.
- The comparatively cheapest for the old and presumed new chancellor would probably have the freedom, who had to fight in the wake of the Ibiza video with other affairs and on Tuesday, among other things, the fate of their fallen party leader Heinz-Christian Strache advised - even one Party exclusion is considered. An alliance with the FPÖ , which was hit by severe shocks, would incur incalculable short-term risks and is therefore considered unlikely.
- A minority government , a government with changing majorities so, was brought into the conversation by Kurz himself - not least in order to have in the upcoming poker one last ace in the sleeve, all exploratory talks were sanded. Whether such a fragile construct could last, even if there were unofficial agreements about a toleration already whispered in Vienna, is more than questionable.
Brief does not give the impression that he is in a hurry with his decision. He looks like one who will weigh the costs and benefits cool.