Impending impeachment: Three scenarios for Donald Trump

In the "Washington Post" they speculate about a US President Mike Pence. Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador, is acting as his vice-president. That's it.

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Issue 40/2019

The deal too much

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Nancy Pelosi is also in talks as the new president. She would move into the White House should both Donald Trump and his vice pence stumble over the Ukraine affair. The spokeswoman for the House of Representatives would be number three in the presidential ranking, according to a 1947 law.

Does it sound crazy? Right. The emotions boil high in US politics, hyperventilating left and right media, the president plays the wild man on Twitter. It is all the more important to look in all the excitement with a calm view of the actual situation. Here are three possible scenarios for the outcome of the Ukraine affair.

Scenario 1: The impeachment procedure goes smoothly - Pence takes over

Chris Kleponis / POOL / EPA-EFE / REX

Donald Trump's Vice Mike Pence could become the next US President

The impeachment threatens. But right now the Democrats are still in the investigation phase. There is a lot of back and forth with the government over who should say what and when. In this scenario, however, the House of Representatives would decide to impeach the majority of the Democrats by November at the latest. Then it would be the Senate's turn. Donald Trump would go to trial in the second chamber, then the 100 senators will pronounce their verdict - by vote. Should 20 Republicans overflow into the 47 Senate Democrats because the evidence against Trump is overwhelming, the two-thirds majority would have been achieved and Trump dismissed from office.

It would be the "worst case" for Trump: his own party would give him up because the mood in the population turns against the president. That's what happened to Richard Nixon in 1974: He remained popular for a long time, but lost all support in the course of the "Watergate" investigations in Congress when it became clear that he had simply lied and cheated too much. He resigned even before the initiation of the actual impeachment trial. Of course, Trump would still have that option in such a scenario.

Either way, the US would then need a new president: Trump's Vice Mike Pence would automatically be sworn in as the new president. Within the republican party, a power struggle would erupt at the same time. For the November 2020 election, other prominent party members in the primaries could challenge Conservative Pence's presidential candidacy. Here, the moderate candidate Nikki Haley would be a viable alternative or Mitt Romney, Senator from Utah.

Scenario 2: Trump survives the impeachment process

ERIK S LASER / EPA-EFE / REX

The most important Republican for Donald Trump in the Senate: Majority leader Mitch McConell

A key role in any possible impeachment will go to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConell. The experienced Washington strip-puller has already announced that he would have no choice but to "take the case" in a decision of the House of Representatives for the impeachment under the rules of the Senate.

In this scenario, McConell would actually allow the formal trial of Trump in the Senate. In the end, the vote in the Senate would also be here. But the Democrats would not reach the required two-thirds majority because they might find only ten but not 20 Republicans willing to give up the president.

In this scenario, Trump would certainly celebrate as a winner, as well as his followers. That should give him a boost for the 2020 election campaign, but the Democrats could benefit as well. Especially if the trial in the Senate should make the failure of the president in the Ukraine affair clear. A brief exit from the impeachment process could motivate many citizens to punish Trump at the ballot box. If next year also economic problems would be added, such as the trade conflict with China, Trump would have to fear for his re-election.

Scenario 3: The impeachment operation becomes a disaster - for the Democrats

Carolyn Kaster / DPA

Donald Trump is spoiled for success: Can he save himself from the crisis?

At the moment, there is a general belief that things are going to be politically positive for the Democrats. Trump and his supporters are clearly struggling to justify the president's behavior in the Ukraine affair. New revelations threaten. And: There are also initial surveys showing that popular support for possible impeachment is growing. But caution is advised here: The surveys are not clear, about half of Americans continue to reject the President's impeachment. It would also be a big process: a few dozen senators would quasi cancel the voting decision of 63 million Americans for Trump.

The mood is not clear against Trump: The president and his people continue to have many opportunities to win the opinion. They attack Joe Biden and his son Hunter, they speak of an alleged conspiracy against Trump, yes, even of an attempted "coup d'état". Trump's campaign team is investing heavily in social media ads defending the president. For many Americans, Trump's PR tactics are still catching.

In the end, the Democrats can also face a disaster: For example, when the initiation of the impeachment procedure fails in the vote in the House of Representatives, because even the democratic majority does not even stand. Or when Mitch McConell buries the impeachment in the Senate, while he absorbs it, but then with the simple Republican majority by vote invalidated. And even that can happen: Trump is being tried in the Senate, but the subsequent vote will be a bad defeat for the Democrats because even Democratic senators vote for Trump.

In all these cases, the Democrats would be exposed. Trump would triumph and declare himself invincible. For the election year 2020, the Democrats would begin a phase of uncertainty, self-doubt and quarrels. Four more years Trump, they would be very clear again.

Graphic: How an Impeachment works

THE MIRROR