More than half a year, the US negotiators had to wait for an appointment. This Saturday, there are finally talks with the North Koreans about their nuclear program. The working-level meeting will take place in the Swedish capital Stockholm. It will not be easy.
As pointed out, the regime in Pyongyang on Wednesday tested an allegedly novel submarine-based ballistic missile. This was ignited in the sea 17 kilometers northeast of the coastal town of Wonsan; the place where North Korean leader Kim Jong Un spent his summer holidays as a child. Not far from the white beaches, he has repeatedly carried out rocket tests and military maneuvers in recent years.
A "new phase" of military force had begun, enthused the North Korean news agency KCNA on Wednesday. The test so close to negotiation sent a clear message: that North Korea is pushing ahead with the development of new weapons and that it intends to take a tough stance in the talks.
Pyongyang wants to negotiate from a position of strength
"The timing suggests that Pyongyang wants to return to the nuclear talks from a position of strength," says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
The US Department of State called Pyongyang to stop the provocation and engage constructively in the disarmament talks. These faltered since the failed summit of Hanoi in February. The meeting of US Presidents Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un on June 30 at the inter-Korean border made little progress in terms of content - or at least the hope that the working-level meetings could be revitalized.
North Korea is primarily concerned with easing international sanctions. Currently, most of its exports, such as coal and iron, are punishable, as is oil imports. Time and again, however, Pyongyang succeeds in overcoming this sanction. For example, goods are transhipped from one cargo ship to another on the high seas. A few weeks ago, a report by the UN expert committee (PDF, approx. 8 MB) warned against North Korea. The panel also concluded that the country has further developed its nuclear and missile programs.
Concessions are possible, a complete disarming hardly
That Pyongyang "finally, completely, verifiable" disarms, as the US so far demand, is unlikely. However, the leadership of the communist country could make some concessions because it promises economic benefits.
Some experts argue for a gradual approach. A first step could be a "freezing" of the nuclear program and the shutdown of the atomic complex in Yongbyon.
So far, the US government has not moved away from its maximum requirement - first completely disarmed, then sanctions relief. However, the release of National Security Advisor John Bolton is likely to have improved sentiment among North Korean negotiators. He was called a "warmonger" by the North Korean state media and was considered a hardliner in the Cabinet in Washington.
Video from April 2019: Trump in principle for a third meeting with Kim Jong Un ready
REUTERS
Bolton's dismissal and the impending impeachment lawsuit against Trump could encourage North Korea to believe that the US president is more ready for a "deal" than before, Ewha professor Easley believes. "Pyongyang now sees its chance." North Korean chief negotiator Kim Myong Gil said he was "filled with expectations and optimism" when stopping in China on his way to Sweden.
On Monday, Bolton warned on his first public appearance since his release that North Korea had no intention of giving up its nuclear arsenal - rather, Kim wants to expand the arsenal. The new test from Wednesday should reinforce him.
Germany, France and Britain demanded a meeting of the UN Security Council on Thursday. A spokesman for UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the incident "very worrying". The UN resolutions prohibit North Korea from launching ballistic missiles. This was also emphasized by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Enough to meet Japan
Abe has cause for concern: Pukguksong-3 - the name of the missile tested - flew 450 kilometers and crashed into waters within Japan's so-called Exclusive Economic Zone. With another launch angle, the rocket would have had a range of around 1,900 kilometers, the analysts of website 38 North forecast - enough to hit not only the whole of South Korea but also Japan.
The North Korean leadership has made it clear in the past that they want a substantial deal by the end of the year, "otherwise something would happen," said Alexandra Bell of the New York Times Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
"It did not describe what 'else' happened, but I would see this missile launch as a harbinger of what might happen if it were not for sanctioning relief or an interim agreement."
