Elizabeth Warren now has a dog. She also introduced her friendly husband, Harvard professor Bruce Mann, in a recent TV interview. The presidential candidate of the US Democrats is visibly striving to gain sympathy points with a larger audience.
"It was love at first sight," her husband whispered. And Warren revealed, "I saw him in shorts with his beautiful knees - that's what happened to me." Then Golden Retriever Bailey hopped into the picture.
US President Elizabeth Warren? That sounded a few months ago like the wild dream of their most faithful followers. But now the left Senator from Massachusetts is more and more the official secret favorite in the race for the White House.
The full exclusive Elizabeth Warren, Bruce Mann interview that aired tonight> pic.twitter.com/1a3VPeq77R
- MJ Lee (@mj_lee) October 1, 2019To understand why this is so, one has to look at the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy and the special rules of the US election campaigns.
At the moment, Democratic opposition leader Joe Biden is still in the lead. He is the darling of the moderate party supporters and comes on average of all surveys in the statistics of Real Clear Politics to 26 percent. He is followed in the polls by the two leftists Warren (24 percent) and Bernie Sanders (17 percent). All other applicants are far behind.
No candidate has gained as much in the surveys over the past few weeks as Warren. The sudden heart disease of Bernie Sanders could change the situation further in Warren's favor. Sanders is on the road to recovery after an emergency operation. But the 78-year-old senator from Vermont has once canceled all election campaign dates.
Brian Snyder / REUTERS
Bernie Sanders had to undergo surgery for heart problems
What happens to Bernie Sanders?
Warren is poaching heavily in Sanders' electoral reservoir on the party left. It holds huge rallies of up to 15,000 attendees and leads the polls for the first time in some key pre-election states such as California.
Although Warren is already 70 years old, she looks much more dynamic and intoxicating than Sanders. Should the senior from Vermont have permanent health problems, doubts about his suitability for president would certainly grow. Then more and more of the so-called progressive Democrats could switch to Warren.
That would be bad news for Biden. He would have little chance with the Sanders voters, for them he is simply to the right. And: The sum of the Warren Sanders voters in the party may be greater than that of the Biden fans. Biden would suddenly be on the defensive. If Warren were able to outdo Biden in the early pre-election states, such as Iowa and New Hampshire, her campaign for the remainder of the vote could win the famous "momentum" that every candidate who wants to win the nomination needs.
FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP
Elizabeth Warren in front of supporters in Los Angeles
And then there's the ukraine affair. She too can help Warren. While she's happily talking about dogs and men on TV, rivals Trump and Biden are increasingly entangled in a political war of attrition that may end up losing both of them.
Although Trump can continue to rely on the core of his hard-hitting supporters. The impeachment seems unlikely as long as his party keeps to him. But it is clear that Trump's behavior in the Ukrainian affair and his savage attacks on his critics are likely to deter more and more moderate voters. At the moment, the number of Americans who are critical of Trump is clearly rising again. On average, 53 percent of citizens are dissatisfied with their work and only 43 percent are satisfied.
Biden's reputation as a clean man is in danger
For Joe Biden, the Ukraine thing is not necessarily better. His image as a political cleaner is in danger. Trump and his supporters take every opportunity to call the ex-vice president and his son Hunter "corrupt." In addition to the shops of the Biden offspring in Ukraine Trump now wants to additionally investigate its activities in China. Even if there is no evidence of wrongdoing in both cases, this is hardly helpful for the senator's presidential candidacy. The policy is merciless: Something always gets stuck.
In the Biden camp, they see the attacks against the former vice-president as an attempt by Trump to influence the primaries of the Democrats. Trump wants to "vote for" his rival candidate for the presidential election, scolded Biden on Twitter.
The message behind it: If Biden fails as a candidate and Warren takes over, Trump could start a campaign against a threatening left-hander in the country - and thus easier to win the election.
Mr. President, you can not extort foreign governments to help you win re-election. It's an abuse of power. It violates your oath of office. And it jeopardizes our national security. I'm not going anywhere. https://t.co/LZQ8W3fmU6
- Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 3, 2019Warren keeps out of such squabbles skilfully. The candidate is likely to slowly but surely focus on the grand prize: the conquest of the presidency in the November 2020 election.
In any case, they are already excited about the stock markets: According to a report in the "Wall Street Journal", traders are now also nervous because they think that a potential presidency of Elizabeth Warren is more likely after the illness of Bernie Sanders.
What that would mean for the financial institutions is clear: Warren wants to regulate banks and exchanges more heavily and tax rich areas higher. That would be a whole new experience for Wall Street.