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The reconfiguration of Latin American politics

2019-10-05T02:38:17.722Z


[OPINION] Daniel Zovatto: The results of the three South American presidential processes still pending will be decisive in defining the trends of political reconfiguration ...


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Editor's note: Daniel Zovatto is regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean of IDEA International, Non Resident Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution and member of the Advisory Council of the Latin American program of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (both of the United States) . He is also a member of the Editorial Board of the Foreign Affairs Magazine in Spanish, an international analyst and lecturer. He is the author of 40 books (as author, co-author, editor, coordinator or compiler) and more than 100 articles on elections, human rights, democracy and governance in Latin America. In 2014 EsGlobal de España included it in its list of the 50 most influential Ibero-American intellectuals. He is a frequent contributor to several Latin American newspapers as well as CNN in Spanish. Follow him on Twitter at @ zovatto55.

(CNN Spanish) - The Latin American electoral cycle enters this October in its final stage, with an electoral marathon of three presidential elections. Bolivia begins on the 20th, followed by Argentina and Uruguay on the 27th. By the end of this year, 14 of the 21 countries in the region will have elected their leaders in a period of only 36 months (2017-2019).

These elections take place in a regional context that is characterized, politically, by a high level of uncertainty, volatility, polarization and populist tendencies; economically, for mediocre growth (0.6% regional average according to the IMF); in the socially growing tension (with stagnant poverty and inequality reduction); and complex in matters of governance. The current institutional crisis in Peru is a final example of this. To all this we must add the high levels of corruption, citizen insecurity and impunity, consequence among other factors of the general weakness of the rule of law. As we see, the region does not give time for boredom.

2019 electoral agenda

The electoral agenda 2019 is intense. It is made up of six presidential elections: three lessons in Central America that already took place during the first semester - El Salvador, Panama and Guatemala - and another three in South America during the month of October.

On October 20, President Evo Morales (Movement to Socialism) will seek his fourth consecutive term. The defeat he suffered in the referendum on February 21, 2016 had closed the possibility of seeking a new nomination. However, the president forced the interpretation of the Constitution, and with the help of the Constitutional Court and the Electoral Tribunal (both under his influence) he was enabled to seek a new mandate. The latest polls put him at the forefront of the intention to vote, but without winning, at the moment, in the first round. The survey published by the newspaper Página Siete, gives Morales a seven-point advantage over former president Carlos Mesa, the main opposition candidate, leader of the Citizen Community movement (33% to 26% respectively), and places Oscar Ortíz in third place ( Bolivia Says No) with 9%. Keep in mind that, in the Bolivian case, there will be a need to go to a ballot if the winner of the first round does not get 50 percent plus one of the votes, or if he does not get 40 percent of the votes with a difference of 10 percentage points over the second.

As we can see, the choice is open. After 13 years of Morales' government, the opposition has possibilities of coming to power (despite not having the ability to join), as long as it manages to conquer the vote of the undecided, who by their high number (15%) are that will determine the final result.

In Argentina, the elections of October 27 will take place in a context of deep economic and social crisis, combined with high volatility and political uncertainty. The surprising and forceful results of the PASO (simultaneous open and compulsory primary), held on August 11, caused a real political earthquake. The broad victory of the opposing binomial of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Front of All) over the formula of Mauricio Macri and Miguel Angel Picheto (Together for Change), by 16 points (47.7% to 31.7% of valid votes), politically weakened the president and left Fernandez as the clear favorite to win the elections on October 27.

All the surveys project a wide difference (between 15 and 20%) in favor of Fernández and show that Macri will find it very difficult to reverse this trend and avoid an opposition victory in the first round. But the last word has not yet been said. We will have to wait until Sunday, October 27 to know if the vote rages (as a result of the mediocre Macri government) will prevail over the vote of fear (against an eventual return of Kirchnerism), or if it will be the other way around. It is also not defined whether there will be a need or not to go on a ballot, scheduled for November 24. In Argentina the second round will take place if the winner of the first round does not get more than 45 percent of the vote (blank votes are not counted) or if he gets 40 percent of the votes and a percentage difference less than 10 percent over the second.

With these rules of the game, the objective of the ruling party is to try to avoid a victory for Fernandez in the first round and then, on the ballot, try to defeat him with a broad anti-Kirchner coalition. In this sea of ​​uncertainty, the only certainty is that the economy and governance will be the main challenges of the new president, since whoever is elected must face a very complex and serious economic, social and political situation.

On October 27, Uruguayans will hold the most uncertain and competitive general elections since 1989. The Frente Amplio accuses a significant level of attrition after three consecutive periods of government (15 years), an economy in trouble and not having any of its three main figures to dispute the presidency: former president Pepe Mujica, former minister Danilo Astori and current president Tabaré Vásquez. The interns celebrated on June 30 defined the candidates of the three main parties: Daniel Martínez (Broad Front), Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou (White Party) and Ernesto Talvi (Colorado Party). For the moment, Martínez leads all the polls for the first round with an intention to vote between 33 and 40%, followed by Lacalle Pou with 26%, Talvi 13% and General Guido Manini Rios (candidate of the conservative right-wing party Open Town Hall with 10%).

The same polls anticipate that there will be a need to go to a ballot on November 24, and that, in this second round, Lacalle Pou would have a good chance of beating Martinez. In Uruguay there is a need to go to a ballot if the winning candidate fails to reach 50 percent plus one of the first-round vote. The only certainty at this point is that the new Congress will be more plural since a greater number of political parties will enter and, therefore, that most likely no organization obtains a majority in both houses of Congress.

Balance: The results of the three South American presidential processes still pending will be decisive to finish defining the trends of the political reconfiguration of our region.

I wonder: would a defeat of Macri, if taking place, be anticipating the return of left or center-left governments and the end of the right and center-right political cycle and promarded policies that Macri himself inaugurated with his triumph in 2015 in several countries from Southamerica? Not necessarily from my point of view.

What we are seeing, especially in South America, is a higher level of volatility and vote punishment for the offices and, consequently, the replacement of the long cycles of government of the past decades, by shorter cycles due to the strong and rapid wear and tear that currently affects the leaders when they have to govern in increasingly complex and difficult contexts.

But this adverse situation does not only affect right-wing or right-wing governments; it also affects the left or center-left governments that currently govern in Uruguay, Ecuador, Bolivia and, especially, in Venezuela.

Summing up: 2019 is a year in which new leaders must concentrate their energy on regaining citizen confidence, learning to govern in a context of high uncertainty and volatility, and producing results quickly to respond to high expectations and citizen demands. Otherwise, as we observed in several countries of the region, citizen frustration could trigger an accelerated loss of popular support and an increase in divorce between politicians and citizens in a regional context characterized by mediocre economic growth, growing social unrest, disaffection with politics, democratic fatigue, high polarization and populist tendencies.

Argentina Vote 2019 Bolivia Vote 2019 Uruguay vote 2019

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2019-10-05

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