[Seoul 2nd Reuters]-North Korea appears to have experimented with a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on the 2nd. The development of SLBM is relatively short from the start, but it has been progressing rapidly toward the loading of nuclear warheads. If this launch is SLBM, it will be the first time in three years.
A few hours before the launch, North Korea announced that it would resume talks with the US on nuclear development issues this weekend.
The exact type of missile and launch platform are still unknown, but experts pointed out that it seemed to move "beyond existing limits."
What happened
After 7:00 am on the 2nd, a missile was launched about 17 kilometers northeast of Wonsan (Motoyama) in North Korea. Wongsan is one of the military bases in the country, and missiles have been fired in the past.
The Japanese government initially announced that two missiles had been fired, but later corrected that one was separated. It has fallen into Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
South Korean defense minister Jeon Kyung-Doo explained that the Aegis ship was detected in a “lofted orbit” where a missile was detected and the flight distance was 450 km, the highest altitude was 910 km, and the flight distance was reduced at a high angle.
It is unclear whether the missile was launched by a submarine or a maritime platform.
A senior US government official indicated that, based on the current analysis, the missile was launched from a maritime platform and could be mounted on a submarine.
◎ What new threats are there?
If missiles are launched in a standard orbit, they can travel up to 1900 km and are classified as medium-range missiles. Korea and all of Japan fit within range. For both countries, missiles from submarines deployed in the sea are more difficult to respond with the missile defense system.
The threat of SLBM increases with the range of the submarine. North Korea's “Romeo class” is expected to have a cruising range of about 7000 km, and can reach near Hawaii on one way.
However, Romeo-class engines are diesel-powered and very loud, so they are easy to detect. In particular, the US military has experience dealing with former Soviet submarines for decades.
◎ History of SLBM development in North Korea
North Korea embarked on the development of SLBM in 2015, with the first launch in August 2016. A two-stage fixed fuel "Arctic Star" was launched in a lofted orbit and flew 500 kilometers, and the experiment was considered successful.
Since then, no information about the experiment has been heard, and it seems that North Korea has been developing SLBM over medium and long distances.
The previous launch experiment was conducted at the port city of Simpo (Shinpo), about 110 kilometers away from Wonsan. This place seems to be the basis for the majority of North Korean submarine units.
North Korea's total number of submarines is one of the largest in the world, but most are small or old types from the former Soviet era, and only one is expected to have ballistic missile capability.
In July this year, Kim Jong-un, the Korean Labor Party chairman, visited a large new submarine and announced that it was close to practical deployment.
Experts have shown from a photo published by the North Korean state media that the new submarine is not a larger new model, just an improved romeo class and an expanded outer shell.
◎ Did you have the second hit ability?
The SLBM is considered to be the key to securing the “second strike ability” that retaliates when it receives a preemptive nuclear attack.
To have this capability, submarines need to not only launch nuclear ballistic missiles but also continue to navigate as long as they can attack the enemy.
Military experts are skeptical that North Korean submarine technology has risen to the point where it gains its second strike capability.
◎ Other recent missile experiments
North Korea has conducted a total of nine missile launch experiments since Kim Jong-un met with President Trump at the Panmunjom store on June 30 this year and promised to resume discussions on nuclear issues.
Except for this time, all of them are short-range missiles and rockets, and the target of attack is the Korean and US forces in Korea.
In November 2017, there was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch experiment, which can reach a maximum of 13,000 km in the standard trajectory.
However, experts believe that North Korea has not yet mastered the technology to produce a small nuclear warhead that can withstand re-entry into the atmosphere and reach the target precisely.