... The preparations are "completed", the Turkish Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday. Troops and tanks were moved to the border with Syria, special forces were positioned. "We can strike any moment," says Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president.
Over the past few months, Erdogan's government has repeatedly threatened to invade Syria a third time after the operations in Jabulus and Afrin in order to fight the Kurdish militia YPG. Since President Donald Trump announced after a telephone conversation with Erdogan on Sunday to withdraw his troops from the region, an attack is more likely than ever.
Most of Turkey's Western allies consider such an offensive by their NATO partner in Syria to be a mistake, with potentially fatal consequences. They fear the destabilization of one of the last semi-peaceful regions in the civil war country. Again, there could be thousands of deaths and mass evictions.
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Erdogan, on the other hand, sees intervention as a necessity. At the beginning of the Syrian civil war, he hoped to overthrow dictator Bashar al-Assad's regime with the help of Islamist rebels. Instead, he had to watch as Assad consolidated his power and conquered Erdogan's archenemy, the YPG, in the northeastern part of the country.
The US valued the YPG as a partner in the war against the Islamic State (IS). Erdogan, on the other hand, regards the militia as an offshoot of the banned Kurdish Workers' Party PKK, which has been engaged in armed struggle against Turkey for decades. He has repeatedly made it clear that he will not accept a de facto state under the control of the PKK / YPG as a neighbor.
As early as January 2018, Turkish troops had conquered the province of Afrin from the YPG. Now Erdogan plans to expand the operation far into the northeast of Syria. He wants to create from the city of Manbijk up to the Iraqi border a hundreds of kilometers long, 35 kilometers deep buffer zone, which is to be controlled in future by Turkey and rebels of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
One million refugees in the buffer zone
For Erdogan, however, it is not just about driving the YPG out of the Turkish-Syrian border area. His spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, has openly admitted that the Turkish government wants to change the demographics in the region.
At the moment mainly Kurds live in the area, as well as members of minorities like Christians, Yazidis or Aramaeans. After a successful operation against the YPG Erdogan wants to relocate up to one million Syrian refugees from Turkey in the buffer zone.
It is a plan that involves enormous dangers - not just for Turkey. The Turkish military would face a long, potentially lossy war against the YPG. The militia has already announced that it will defend its territory by all means.
Even if Turkey were to succeed on this battlefield, it would not create peace or stability in the region, on the contrary. The wars in former Yugoslavia have recently shown the devastating impact of population swaps on states and societies - even decades later. To date, there are ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans, such as Serbia and Kosovo arguing about areas and the people living there. It is also unclear what would happen in the event of a Turkish military strike with IS fighters and their relatives who are currently being held by the YPG.
Lefteris Pitarakis / AP
Turkish President Erdogan: Urgently needs domestic success
Despite these risks, Erdogan is determined to press ahead with the offensive. The Turkish president has been under pressure from domestic politics in the early summer due to the economic crisis in his country and the election defeat in Istanbul. He desperately needs success to calm his nationalist voters.
Whether it actually comes in a short time to an invasion, initially still depends on the United States. Although Trump has on the one hand initiated the withdrawal of troops, on the other hand he has threatened to destroy the Turkish economy should Turkey attack the YPG. Other US leaders, such as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, also threatened Ankara with sanctions in the event of Syria's intervention. It is doubtful whether Erdogan will be impressed.
More important, therefore, is how the Russian government behaves, the main supporter of dictator Assad. The YPG has already threatened to ally itself with the Assad regime in the event of a Turkish attack. Should the YPG, Russia and Iran join forces against Turkey, Erdogan would probably have their hands tied.