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Editor's Note: Dan Restrepo is a lawyer, Democratic strategist and political collaborator of CNN. He was presidential advisor and director for the Western Hemisphere of the National Security Council during the presidency of Barack Obama. The opinions expressed in this article are exclusive to the author.
(CNN Spanish) - It is possible that one of the unexpected beneficiaries of the potential political trial against Donald Trump is the object of so much contempt for himself: Mexico.
And it could be because the political trial makes the approval of the Mexico, United States, Canada, or T-MEC Treaty more likely by the US Congress.
Although the initial reactions to the start of the trial process against President Trump predicted that this marked the end of useful legislative work, there are reasons to think otherwise with the T-MEC.
And those reasons begin and end with the president of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, one of the most effective legislators in Congress and perhaps the president of the most effective House in modern history. (In her first instance as president of the Chamber (2007 to 2011, Pelosi was instrumental in both the initial rescue of the liquidity of the US and global financial system in the fall of 2008, and in the approval of Obamacare in the spring of 2010. )
Pelosi, who regained the presidency of the House when the Democrats won a majority in the midterm elections of 2018, understands that in order to maintain that presidency, the Democrats have to demonstrate that they are able to legislate for national benefit while they pursue a formal political trial against President Trump
With a president with few ideas of his own and fewer legislative projects and in front of a Senate in Republican hands that has refused to consider more than 100 bills passed this year by the House, there are few vehicles with which to demonstrate legislative successes.
The T-MEC is perhaps the only project with which the ability to continue governing can be demonstrated, while the Chamber fulfills its constitutional duty in the framework of the investigation of the alleged abuse of power by the president.
But beyond being the only possible legislative vehicle, that the T-MEC is more likely to move forward today than before the beginning of the president's formal investigation and its POSSIBLE abuses correspond to another characteristic of Pelosi: his willingness to protect the most vulnerable of yours.
Democrats, electorally most vulnerable to Trump's possible political trial, turn out to be, to a large extent, those who would benefit most politically from the approval of the T-MEC.
That coincidence is the seed of hope for Mexico and for the T-MEC, but only if the three challenges that remain between today and a possible approval are overcome.
The first is the negotiation between a group of House Democrats and the US Trade Representative. Robert Lighthizer Yes Lighthizer successfully resolves the issues on which the Democrats are insisting - labor and environmental protections, drug prices and access to pharmacists - and compliance mechanisms: the agreement will be an important step closer to its realization.
But it will only move forward if Lighthizer turns out to be a valid interlocutor in those negotiations. That is, if the president and his closest advisers in the White House, including economist Peter Navarro, accept the results of the negotiation between Lighthizer and the working group of the Democrats.
Under normal circumstances, the validity of that interlocution would not be in doubt. With this president, nothing is normal.
And there comes the third challenge that remains for the T-MEC: Donald Trump and his hostility towards Mexico. In almost every moment of political and / or legal danger to the president, he has used the same tool to ensure the support of his base: attacks against Mexico and Mexicans.
Entering the stage of maximum political and legal danger that is a formal investigation that could result in making him the third president in the history of the republic to be formally prosecuted by the House of Representatives, it does not require much imagination to think that Trump would prefer to keep Mexico as your favorite political target instead of declaring a legislative victory.
After all, Mexico and the T-MEC are on the table in a very troubled Washington where almost all the attention is on the possible political trial of the president.
The coming weeks will tell us if they are as a privilege site or as the menu of the day.
Foreign Trade Political Judgment to Donald Trump
