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Podcast "Voices catch": bad luck or mistake - what makes AKK wrong?

2019-10-10T12:50:21.328Z


As the head of the CDU, AKK wanted to win the party, win the elections and eventually become chancellor candidate. Almost a year in office, she fights against a series of breakdowns and bad poll numbers. What's happening?



Stimmenfang # 116 - Chronicle of a breakdown series: Why do Kramp-Karrenbauer pass so many mistakes?

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More or less accidental jokes in carnival, irritating statements about freedom of expression, thoughtless comments on Twitter. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer stumbles from one breakdown to the next. Every time she has to row back and explain what she said.

Why do a political professional such as the CDU party leader and Federal Defense Minister make such mistakes? What effects do the glitches have on their survey results? And has AKK already gambled away her chancellor candidate?

This is what we are talking about in the new podcast episode with Sebastian Fischer , one of the directors of the Spiegel-Hauptstadtbüro. He recognizes a systematics in Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer's mistakes - and looks at their competitors in the race for the chancellor candidate of CDU / CSU.

The podcast as a text to read

You want to read what's said in the podcast? Then you are right here.

The complete transcript

[00:00:02] Yasemin Yüksel Welcome to Stimmenfang, the political podcast of SPIEGEL ONLINE. I am Yasemin Yüksel.

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[00:00:50] Yasemin Yüksel Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has been head of the CDU for almost a year now and things are not going well for her. Last December at the party congress in her application speech, she sounded rather self-assured.

[00:01:03] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) Yes, and I stand here as someone who has had tough campaigning with you and has won successfully. And not, even though I am the way I am, but just because I am the way I am. And I'm proud of that.

[00:01:16] Yasemin Yüksel For many, AKK was pretty much the next chancellor candidate of the Union. Today, this is more or less openly doubted, because in the foreground are rather their weak poll numbers and a kind of non-disruptive breakdown series. What is going wrong? Is she unlucky or does she make mistakes? That's what this episode is about. And I can talk about the questions with my colleague Sebastian Fischer. Hello Sebastian.

[00:01:39] Sebastian Fischer Hello Yasemin.

[00:01:40] Yasemin Yüksel Sebastian, let's start with a number - or rather two numbers - in the SPIEGEL there is a regular poll, the so-called Politician's Steps. It asks: Would you like politicians or politicians X or Y to play an important role in the future? And in the last issue was this survey and only 29 percent of respondents said: Yes, we wish AKK an important role in the future. And in December, 58 percent of respondents said: Yes, we wish AKK an important role in the future - that means a crash from 58 percent down to 29. Where does this crash come from? Why is that?

[00:02:14] Sebastian Fischer And at the same time an important other value is only 18 percent of Germans trust her to the chancellorship. She started with a big leap of faith back then. It was a situation - not so long ago - shortly after the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse, where the CDU and the CSU had made heavy losses, Angela Merkel as chancellor and party leader came under pressure and announced to give up her office.

[00:02:40] Angela Merkel Today it is time for you to announce the following decision: First, at the next CDU party convention in December in Hamburg, I will not run again for the office of chairman of the CDU Germany. Secondly, this fourth term is my last as Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, in the general election in 2021 I will not compete again as Chancellor candidate of the Union.

[00:03:08] Sebastian Fischer And it was clear then that her successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, is here. At that time, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz, who ran against Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer at this Hamburg party congress, registered. But Kramp-Karrenbauer gave a really good speech and you just played this part and Friedrich Merz made a really rather bad speech. As a result, she won and therefore this leap of faith. But since then it was just relatively quickly then downhill.

[00:03:37] Yasemin Yüksel Yes, that's right. But what happened then? Why did that go so quickly downhill, after she had actually prevailed against the rivals Merz and Spahn in the race for the party leadership? What were the reasons?

[00:03:47] Sebastian Fischer That was certainly a mixture of the question, how do you find yourself in this new party chairmanship office, which you deliberately did not want to pair yet with a ministerial office at that time, to fully and completely to focus on this Presidency. And on the other hand, there were also one or the other breakdown in the course of the months, which then led to more and more doubt even within the CDU, whether Kramp-Karrenbauer is actually the right successor to Angela Merkel.

[00:04:15] Yasemin Yüksel You say trouble. Are there any individual stations that you remember in this quasi-breakdown series? How did it start, what did it start with?

[00:04:23] Sebastian Fischer Your main goal in the beginning was to split this party, which was in a sense divided, due to the refugee crisis divided party. In February, she organized a so-called workshop talk on refugee policy, where basically all people should be brought to a table again and they wanted to work their way up to a certain extent.

[00:04:45] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) All of us - and that was the starting point for this conversation - have felt very clearly that what happened in September 2015 and in the episode was an absolute exceptional situation.

[00:04:58] Sebastian Fischer The Chancellor obviously did not like it that much from the start.

[00:05:02] Yasemin Yüksel I think I remember, she did not participate either.

[00:05:04] Sebastian Fischer She did not participate. On the contrary, it was also around the corner from the Konrad Adenauer House, back then where it was held, in a bar with two other important CDU women. That was certainly not intended, but it also sent a signal. In any case, that was going so far as I believe in the back, the attempt of Kramp-Karrenbauer since reconciliation to create, because he did not go beyond symbolism ultimately. Of course, these - let's say - more conservative members of the Union, of course, realized very quickly that this rhetorical embrace was not exactly what followed. The CDU is - I would say - stood more polarized today than it was a year ago.

[00:05:47] Yasemin Yüksel And this workshop talk, that was in February, then came the carnival time and in early March, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer made a joke at a carnival performance, which did not appeal well to everyone.

[00:05:55] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) Who was in Berlin recently? You see the Latte Macchiato faction, which introduces the toilets for the third sex. This is for the men who do not know yet, whether they may still stand while peeing or have to sit. In between is this toilet.

[00:06:15] Yasemin Yüksel Sebastian, how were the reactions to this performance?

[00:06:18] Sebastian Fischer Well, at the time - you can not forget that - she had the reputation or even told herself to say what she thinks to be as authentic as possible. One should not forget that she arrived in the Saarland very, very well. She won elections there. She has been a very popular Prime Minister and it's just the usual carnival humor that I can not share that way now. But maybe one or two of them will be fine and Ash Wednesday will have reacted again.

[00:06:48] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) Today I have the feeling that we are the cramped people that are around here anywhere in the world. That can not go on like that.

[00:06:56] Sebastian Fischer And now she tried to make the story out of it: Well, if you can not even say that anymore, where do we get there? That's almost the crisis management, to catch the topic again.

[00:07:08] Yasemin Yüksel Saying something and catching it again a few days later, or at least classifying it, if we keep that in mind: In early summer, after the European elections did not go very well for the Union, there was another one Press conference with Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

[00:07:24] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) When the news came that quite a few Youtubers joined forces to launch a call, calling for election against the CDU and SPD, I wondered what was actually in this country, if a number of - let's say 70 newspaper editors two days before the election had declared: we make a joint call, please do not choose CDU and SPD. It would have been clear opinion before the election and I think it would have sparked a lively discussion in this country.

[00:07:54] Yasemin Yüksel Sebastian, we asked at the beginning, is she bad luck or does she make mistakes? How would you retrospectively classify this statement?

[00:08:01] Sebastian Fischer I think it's just rash. You can now break this statement down into its individual parts and then of course you can say that it is wrong, because it is wrong, because it is wrong. At the time everything was done in that time. But of course she comes to this press conference - that's the only way I can explain it - relatively emotionally charged. Sometimes it just has to go out and that's the way to go in this case. And that's just not a happy way, because we see again and again with Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, that she has to be re-captured in things she says, which then somehow in the days after, reinterpreted, must be re-captured. It means then, no, she did not mean it, she meant it differently, but it was misunderstood and so on and so forth. That starts with the carnival joke, about that - even then it was said afterwards, of course she did not want to restrict the freedom of expression. Is also logical. At any rate, I would not accuse her of wanting to restrict freedom of expression. Of course, complete nonsense. But there are more of these mishaps, where they have to explain and catch up again and again in retrospect, or one of the speakers has to bag that accordingly. But it is interesting, if you now listen to this original speech at this CDU party congress, which is already bursting with self-confidence, but also has something positive ...

[00:09:14] Yasemin Yüksel So when she said, I did it all, not even though I am like that, but because I am the way I am.

[00:09:19] Sebastian Fischer Exactly, I would almost say, so a little bit something American in the beginning, something startling. I enter here and I am the way I am. And if you compare that with the last few months and their statements in recent months, you can see how they almost always, more and more withdrawn, more cautious, always woodier. And that certainly has its cause in what kind of reactions she triggered with her remarks, what mistakes she made. And so we come now into the present and many - even high-ranking officials in the CDU - say meanwhile: So, in the race for the possible Chancellor candidate it does not look so good.

[00:10:02] Yasemin Yüksel Then, in the summer, she makes a decision that she has always ruled out. She takes over a government office. In the middle of July she becomes Minister of Defense.

[00:10:12] Wolfgang Schäuble (President of the Bundestag) May I ask you to speak the text of the Oath Formula required by the Basic Law.

[00:10:19] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) I swear that I will devote my power to the people for the benefit of the German people, increase its usefulness, harm it, uphold and defend the Basic Law and federal law to conscientiously fulfill my duties and practice justice against anyone. So help me God.

[00:10:41] Yasemin Yüksel Why did she do that, even though she always ruled it out?

[00:10:44] Sebastian Fischer An absolute 180-degree turnaround. She had always said before, full-time party leader, to give the CDU such a sense of confidence that she is not only chancellor party, but just an independent, so even conservative party to even possible defectors who have migrated to AfD, to bring back again. That was the idea. But I believe that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has realized relatively quickly that her power in this party chairmanship without a ministerial office is simply very limited and then the conclusion was relatively close when this possibility was offered when Ursula von der Leyen moved to Brussels she could become Secretary of Defense. And then she accessed. And of course, what is added in the government office are all these insignia of power, especially as Secretary of Defense, that's one of the most important ministerial posts in the government, of course you all have. You have your security with you, you are escorted with blue lights, you have all the visits from Washington, Afghanistan. You can not underestimate that either.

[00:11:46] Yasemin Yüksel Sebastian, let's come back to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and her role in your own party. How much support does she have there?

[00:11:57] Sebastian Fischer Yes, that's hard to say. It will now be in the next few days and months as there are a few tests, I think. For one, of course, this year there will be a congress of the CDU again. There, the value union, so this conservative splinter group, announced that they would like to apply for the primary election of the chancellor candidate.

[00:12:17] Yasemin Yüksel In other words, not all listeners know that, the next chancellor candidate or the next chancellor candidate would not be elected by the delegates of the party, but by a member vote.

[00:12:28] Yasemin Yüksel Exactly, that would be something new for the CDU. The CDU is of course the classic ...

[00:12:33] Yasemin Yüksel But would that be so bad?

[00:12:35] Sebastian Fischer Well, some say so, the others say so. The SPD is experiencing precisely that this procedure leads a party chairman on the one hand, through member polls, on the other hand, that members feel more strongly demanded, that they see more sense in their membership, that they actively participate in the party life. On the other hand, of course, this is a process that continues for a long, long time. The question is, the candidate, then the base or the members want, is that the candidate who then has the greatest chances with the people?

[00:13:07] Yasemin Yüksel Can one interpret that in such a way that individuals in the party try to aggravate AKK's possible way to this candidacy at least once?

[00:13:16] Sebastian Fischer Yes, there are clear settling movement and pinpricks. The Junge Union debates at its annual meeting the question of whether or not to make such an application. The chairman Tilman Kuban, who is now not considered a friend of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has already said, there are of course other heads in addition to the party chairman.

[00:13:38] Yasemin Yüksel And while AKK's own path to a possible chancellor candidate is at least more difficult - what are actually doing in the meantime, their former rivals? Who among those is actually hoping?

[00:13:51] Sebastian Fischer Once again, the two candidates come into play, who were then inferior to Kramp-Karrenbauer at the party congress for the party presidency, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz. But of course also some others, who have gradually put themselves in position. So the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, also belongs to the liberal wing of the CDU, but has also lately made more conservative tones in order to broaden there. Of course, the CSU chairman Markus Söder, who has always said that his political home, his political goal is always only Munich. But who knows, as CSU chairman, who sees himself and his country as role models, he must always be prepared to take that leap. Maybe he likes it. Let's take Jens Spahn, who has finally turned this defeat at the party congress into a profit for himself. He has proven afterwards that he is in the service of the party, he has set as health minister one law after the other on the agenda and it is quite obvious that the man aspires to higher things and also wants to prove and show that he can do that. In the meantime, Friedrich Merz has not heard too much, so he has retreated halfway. But I would not underestimate that under any circumstances.

[00:15:12] Yasemin Yüksel So, that means there are quite a few around her who, I would say, watch over her. Does she really have any friends in the party? And of course, especially in mind ...

[00:15:20] Sebastian Fischer You are thinking of the Chancellor ...

[00:15:20] Yasemin Yüksel ... yes, exactly, exactly the ...

[00:15:25] Sebastian Fischer ... because of wish successor.

[00:15:25] Yasemin Yüksel Yes, that's right.

[00:15:26] Sebastian Fischer I think it was definitely her follow-up and, to a certain extent, in the party chairmanship. But nevertheless one can notice that there is such a slight estrangement between the two since assumption of the party chairmanship. At the time I thought that this workshop talk on refugee policy in February 2019 was very decisive. We talked about what Merkel did not like so much. And then again and again there were such small things, which of course can be completely misunderstood. Since you always do not know how intentional it was, how intentionally it was not. For example, I am thinking of this trip to the USA recently. The point was that Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merkel wanted to travel to the US at the same time, one to New York and the other, AKK, to Washington as their defense minister colleague there. And the idea came up that you could fly together.

[00:16:21] Yasemin Yüksel Could do it.

[00:16:21] Sebastian Fischer Climate protection and such and besides, is also a nice sign, if you fly together and the people from the Ministry of Defense had, I think, set up and it would have fit. The delegation accompanying AKK was not that big now.

[00:16:35] One- player One goal, two planes, many empty spaces. The federal government is setting a bad example. Officially, there is talk of independent planning. Allegedly, however, it was the Chancellery, which urged to travel better separated. Both fly separately from Berlin to Washington and New York. And that at a distance of half an hour. The reasons for this remain unclear, because originally both wanted to share a government aircraft.

[00:16:58] Sebastian Fischer But shortly before that the Chancellor's Office signaled that they wanted to fly alone. And then for Kramp-Karrenbauer another such troop transport Airbus was procured, with which they then and their delegation flew alone in the United States. Where troop transporter now sounds like wood class, but is not wood class, just means.

[00:17:18] Yasemin Yüksel But definitely not exactly an event, what you write in the calendar as Chancellor has given me back support. Rather not. In the end, Sebastian, the only question left for us is how open is the race for the chancellor candidate of the Union? Does AKK have any chance at all?

[00:17:34] Sebastian Fischer As of today, I would not assume that she will become chancellor candidate or, accordingly, chancellor. Ultimately, much depends on the SPD. If the Grand Coalition were to break quickly now, then in the Union one would have to make a very quick decision as to who is going to run for chancellor, chancellor candidate. It would of course be a chance for Kramp-Karrenbauer to say: Well, hello, I'm the CDU chairman. I access this position. I'm all right. And of course it would be just because of the time pressure on the offensive and there you would first have to gather opposition against them. But if the grand coalition still holds office, and possibly the regular two years remaining, then this is a relatively long distance, and the other possible candidates for the chancellorship could show themselves and stage themselves very well.

[00:18:27] Yasemin Yüksel Thank you Sebastian, see you soon.

[00:18:32] That was votes, the policy podcast from SPIEGEL ONLINE. You can hear the next episode from next Thursday on spiegel.de, Spotify and in all common podcast apps. If you have feedback on this episode, just write us an email to stimmfang@spiegel.de or use our voice mailbox on 040 380 80 400. To the same number, ie 040 380 80 400, you can also us one Send WhatsApp message. This episode was produced by Matthias Kirsch and me, Yasemin Yüksel. Thanks for the support to Sebastian Fischer, Johannes Kückens, Wiebke Rasmussen, Rachelle Pouplier and Matthias Streitz. The vocal music comes from Davide Russo.

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Source: spiegel

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