Tunisia. Coup de theater before the presidential election with the release of candidate Karoui

Imprisoned for six weeks, businessman Nabil Karoui, a presidential candidate, was released to everyone's surprise, four days before the second round.

Tunisian presidential candidate Nabil Karoui was released at four days of the second round, a coup de scene at a time when official results confirm a victory in half-hearted Islamists in the legislative elections.

Dressed in black, Mr. Karoui was welcomed as a hero in the evening when he left the prison of Mornaguia, 20 km from Tunis. His supporters carried him on their shoulders before he left the scene, in black Mercedes, without making a statement.

"This is wonderful news, it was very hard without him," said one of his party's executives, Osama Khelifi. "He wants to go to the Tunisian people, explain his program, he wants to participate in these elections and win . "

Businessman and media, Mr. Karoui was detained since August 23, ten days before the start of the campaign for the first round of the presidential election, an arrest he described as political.

Nabil Karoui offered himself a walkabout among thousands of supporters celebrating his release. | FETHI BELAID / AFP

The Court of Cassation decided on Wednesday to release Mr. Karoui, who remains charged with tax evasion and money laundering. "The arrest warrant against Nabil Karoui is canceled, the investigation continues, but he is free," said one of his lawyers, Mr. Nazih Souei.

Mr. Karoui had 15.58% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, behind the lawyer Kais Saied, 18.4%. He has two days left to campaign, during which he is invited to participate in an unprecedented televised debate with his opponent Friday night.

Parliament fragmented

The release eclipsed the official confirmation that the Islamist-inspired party Ennahdha was leading the legislative elections on Sunday with 52 seats out of 217, ahead of its main rival, Nabil Karoui's party, Qalb Tounes, 38 seats.

The leader of Ennahdha, Rached Ghannouchi, who was running for the first time in an election, was elected a deputy. Just like Mr. Karoui's brother, Ghazi, who has not been seen in public since a warrant was issued against him in August.

Ennahdha will be responsible for forming the government, a complicated task given the fragmentation of Parliament.

The dealings between the parties began as soon as the close of Sunday these legislative wedged between the two rounds of the presidential election.

Ennahdha remains the main party of Parliament, but it is far from the 89 seats obtained in 2011, and 68 in the outgoing Assembly. In addition, unlike 2014, given the fragmentation of forces, it will be difficult to find a strong partner to form a coalition government, requiring 109 votes.

Wedding ring games

Qalb Tounes, founded in June around the person of Mr. Karoui, who gathered disparate personalities and campaigns against poverty, makes a remarkable entrance to Parliament. But "will it survive for a long time or will it be a victim of its contradictions," wonders former MP Selim Ben Abdesselem.

The Social Democrat Party Attayar ( "Democratic Stream" ) of human rights activist Mohammed Abbou won 22 seats, marking a clear progression of this formation.

The winning party in 2014, Nidaa Tounes, was swept from 86 to ... 3 seats.

Sign of the deep divergences that lie ahead, the Islam-populist Karama movement has 21 seats and the anti-Islamist party PDL 17 seats.

To reach a majority, Ennahdha will have to make concessions. Questions are well over a possible alliance with Qalb Tounes, despite his promises not to ally with them.

The solution of a government of technocrats is also mentioned by many political commentators, especially since Ennahdha has kept a burning memory of the failure of his first experience at the head of a government in 2011-13.

For the Tunisian daily La Presse, "the possibility of failing all attempts to form the next government is not to be ruled out . "

But "the parties do not have interest to go to elections early," said Selim Kharrat, the NGO Al Bawsala.

For Ben Abdesselem, in the absence of a comfortable majority to legislate, "the scenario of early elections in four to six months is not to be discarded . "

"Political instability may increase the wait-and-see attitude of Tunisia's partners , " warns Ben Abdesselem, while Tunisia is on a drip from the International Monetary Fund, which granted a loan of 2.4 billion euros in 2016. euros over four years.

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