United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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More than 1,200 days have passed since the British voted to leave the EU. Well, a good three weeks before the planned exit on October 31st, it is still unclear how Brexit should go about.
An agreement can not be presented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, an unjustified exit from the UK or a postponement of the withdrawal date become more likely. Some dates on which important decisions could be made are still pending.
French President Emmanuel Macron recently called on Johnson to submit an improved proposal by the end of the week. Johnson's recent offer was rejected in the EU - mainly because it provides for customs controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland that could disrupt peace on the island and cause massive damage to the economy.
DPA / AP / Jean-Francois Badias
Emmanuel Macron shows less patience than most of his EU counterparts
The EU has not changed its position on the issue of Ireland for years. Johnson received for his proposal therefore a discharge with announcement. However, the deadline from France is not binding - because Macron can not negotiate on behalf of the EU and set deadlines. What remains until October 19, are a few dates. The overview.
October 11: Lunch, a conversation - many questions
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier will be having lunch with UK Brexit minister Stephen Barclay on Friday while Johnson and Irish premier Leo Varadkar want to meet. Groundbreaking progress is not expected from either event.
17-18. October: 48 hours for the solution - the EU summit
Just over a week before the announced departure date, European leaders will meet in Brussels. On 17 and 18 October, Brexit will become its most important topic, for a long time the summit was the final opportunity for agreement.
However, media in the UK reported that UK chief negotiator David Frost had received several cancellations from EU circles for last-minute negotiations. Meaningful proposals must be made in advance - which de facto gives Macron's deadline reprint, at least apparently.
At the same time, the EU is openly open to suggestions and will probably not change this attitude until the end. Because no head of state would like to blame for the absence of an agreement.
The "Blame Game", with which Johnson blames his former negotiators in Brussels for the failure so far, has so far decisively rejected the European side. "It depends entirely on the will of Mr Johnson, because from the European side, we are always open and want an agreement," said about the Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins the BBC.
October 19: Day X, once again
If the EU summit does not make progress - which seems likely at the moment - Johnson will have to apply for a moratorium on 19 October in Brussels. Reason is the so-called Benn Act, a law that the British Parliament had rushed through in September to prevent a no-deal Brexit. Johnson's dealings with the law caused confusion in the past:
- On the one hand, the PM said that he would obey the law
- On the other hand, he said his country would definitely leave the EU on October 31, with or without a deal.
Statements from government circles suggest that Johnson might try to do both, even though it seems to exclude:
- He could send an application to Brussels
- with a second letter but question his serious intentions and thus sabotage the application.
The EU would then have to decline. In addition, individual states are apparently to be pressured not to agree to an extension. That's at least from a message received by the British "Spectator" attributed to Johnson's closest adviser, Dominic Cummings. The calculus: A petition for Brexit postponement would have to be unanimously approved by all 27 EU states - if only one country rejects, there is no extension.
October 19: Showdown in the lower house
Johnson has called the British Parliament for the same day. Immediately after the EU summit, then. An absolute exception - it will be the fifth time in 80 years that the lower house meets on a Saturday:
- For the first time, this was the case when World War II took place,
- most recently on the occasion of the invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982.
The session could be crucial to the way forward in the Kingdom. If, contrary to current expectations, an agreement with the EU takes place beforehand, Parliament would have to vote on this agreement. If a majority were in favor, the scramble for the deal would be over and the British would leave the EU on 31 October.
However, the deal would have to be essentially in line with the deal negotiated with Johnson's predecessor Theresa May - for more than cosmetic changes in the Ireland issue, the EU will not be persuaded. If there were an agreement with the EU, but no majority in the British Parliament, this deal would be off the table - as well as Mays earlier agreements.
21st October: The last resort - a letter from Scotland
Johnson says he complies with the law and yet he does not want to ask the EU for a delay - a contradiction. Since some British politicians do not believe that Johnson will actually follow the Benn Act, is currently running a lawsuit in the highest Scottish court. There, three plaintiffs - a Scottish politician, a British industrialist, and a lawyer - want Johnson to be forced by new legal action to seek renewal.
Since the court relied on Johnson's lawfulness, the application was initially rejected. However, the Scottish judges can still exercise a special right and write the letter on behalf of the Prime Minister and submit it themselves in Brussels. The decision on this "nobile officium" was postponed to 21 October - then it would be decided for sure whether or not Johnson complied with the law on 19 October.
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