Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan: why more people are fleeing to Europe

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not shy away from misusing refugees as a lever. On Thursday he threatened the EU: "We will open the doors and 3.6 million people will come to you." Moreover, Erdogan's involvement in the northeast of the country seems to do a lot to force more people to flee Syria. Tens of thousands have left the border regions of Ras al-Ain and Tall Abjad in the direction of Syria, according to international aid organizations.

The Turkish army is also attacking, among others, Qamishli, a city that has been largely spared in the conflict that has lasted for more than eight years. Nevertheless, some Syrians had left the place years ago. Not only because of possible dangers of war: the Syrian-Kurdish militia ruling there had reorganized the education system. School reports from Qamishli were worth nothing in Syria, the way blocked at universities. So many families preferred to go.

Refugee movements are not always easy to predict. This is especially true for the flight from the war zones of the Near and Middle East to Europe. Because the vast majority of people stay in the region. They bring themselves within their own country to safety or flee to the neighboring country. Only a few travel on.

Of the nearly 20 million Syrians, 6.2 million are in Syria, for example. 5.5 million are registered as refugees in Syria's neighboring countries. Over one million live in Europe, of which around 780,000 are in Germany.

Triggers for onward travel are often events that are hardly noticed in Europe. Sometimes the situation in the home country has not changed significantly, but the situation in the host country so far: the situation there is becoming more precarious, new restrictions are being introduced, doors are closing. And that currently affects many countries in the Near and Middle East.

Turkey: mood change with consequences

Thus, significantly more people from Turkey arrive on the Aegean Islands. In September, there were 10,551 more than since the entry into force of the EU agreement with Turkey in March 2016, almost three times as many as last year.

If Erdogan now threatened with "opening the border": Since June, something has changed. On the Aegean Islands, significantly more is coming back - in September almost three times as much as in the same month last year, record since Turkey deal in March 2016. (Graph: UNHCR) https://t.co/JfYhf7PLnH pic.twitter.com/IKJM3GiGvU

This trend should accelerate further. Turkey is the country that houses most of the world's refugees - 3.7 million Syrians, but also around 150,000 Afghans. After Erdogan had taken the Syrians long generous, he is now therefore politically under pressure. Many Turks are fed up with the refugees in their homeland. In addition, the Turkish economy is in crisis after decades of boom. Meanwhile, Ankara has begun to forcibly deport Afghans and Syrians. In September, Erdogan even announced plans to move one million Syrians to northern Syria.

The change of mood makes one unsure: Many Syrians in Turkey are wondering if they really have a future there - or if they would rather move on to Europe. Returning to Syria is currently an option for hardly anyone, because the war is not over; young men are burned as cannon fodder or tortured as suspected political opponents. In addition, the economy of the country is on the ground.

Iran: nuclear conflict with side effect

Iran is also one of the most important host countries in the world: the country houses about one million Afghans registered as refugees. In addition, according to estimates, nearly two million unregistered Afghans live there.

But last year, a record number of around 780,000 Afghans from Iran returned to Afghanistan. According to estimates by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), this year will be another 570,000. This is due to the difficult economic situation in Iran as a result of US sanctions in the nuclear dispute. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi even threatened to send Afghans to Europe in May if Iran were to suffer longer under the punitive measures of the Americans.

Video: Turkey offensive threatens security in Europe

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The Afghans from Iran are now returning to a country where violence is on the increase again and was hit by a terrible drought in 2018 affecting two-thirds of the population. The UN Refugee Agency and the IOM assume that Afghanistan will be overwhelmed by the admission of so many people and many will therefore start again - some probably also to Europe.

Iraq: No alternatives

Something is also brewing in Iraq. Last week, thousands of young men demonstrated against corruption and mismanagement in Baghdad. They call for radical reforms that the government is unlikely to be able to do. The protests were bloodily defeated, at least for the time being. But the problems persist and aggravate. Every year more university graduates enter the job market with no prospect of finding a job. In addition: The war against the "Islamic State" (IS) could flare up again in Iraq as a result of the escalation in northern Syria.

But many places of refuge in the region are now out. When violence erupted in Iraq in 2003 after US troops invaded, up to 1.5 million Iraqis fled to Syria, around 500,000 to Jordan. This would hardly be possible today: there is a war in Syria, and Jordan is now demanding visas from Iraqis. It has already taken in around 650,000 Syrians and no longer wants more refugees.

If the neighbors increasingly fail as host countries, this could delay the flight movements: instead of remaining in the region, more people could directly focus on Europe than before.