Jacob Rees-Mogg is probably the most elegant political rioter in the UK. The 50-year-old likes to wear double-breasted suits, nipples a pronounced upper-class English, quotes ancient authors. But when it comes to his opponents, the official government representative in the House of Commons knows no mercy.
Rees-Mogg was head of the ultra-conservative European Research Group, the hard Brexit has been his mission for years. Ex-Prime Minister Theresa May, theoretically a party friend, wanted to put the Tory politician once out of office, because it was to his liking to Brussels compliant.
This Sunday, Rees-Mogg writes in a newspaper column: "In the final stages of the Brexit negotiation, compromise is inevitable." Even the most ferocious Brexit followers would recognize that.
Wonderful Volte
The British government is launching the next wondrous Volte these days. For weeks, people had propagated a "eat-or-die" policy. If the EU does not move, you go without a withdrawal agreement. That was the motto. On Tuesday it was said that the possible deal with Brussels was practically dead.
But suddenly both sides gave themselves demonstratively hopeful again. New talks were scheduled, this weekend was negotiated again in small group. Is there still a deal in it? Or is it just a new feint from London?
Boris Johnson had informed his cabinet on Sunday that "a road to an agreement with the EU" is recognizable, reported a government spokesman. Even Brussels are more skeptical tones, there is "no breakthrough". But to the details one does not learn anything from official side.
Video: Brexit fear on complaints
DER SPIEGEL / Fabian Pieper
Nevertheless, rumors are circulating. If they agree, the British would have made concessions. The highly controversial backstop (read more here), the emergency solution for Northern Ireland, was indeed off the table, they say. Nevertheless, London allegedly committed to a Northern Irish special status. Belfast would therefore remain officially in a customs union with Britain, but would have to de facto enter into a customs partnership with the EU in order to prevent controls at the inner-Irish border. And even a veto right of the Northern Ireland Regional Parliament, as Johnson had recently brought into play, is now apparently no longer speech.
Course: New elections
A spontaneous change of heart? Hard to believe. For weeks, Johnson's government has followed a risky but clear course: preparing for new elections to re-establish clear majorities in the lower-house split into groups and factions - their primary goal. Johnson stages himself as a Brexit hardliner and a fighter against the establishment. It is a strategy designed to prevent the Tories from being overwhelmed by the radical Brexit party.
And viewed in light, the latest twist, the demonstrative willingness to talk, in no contradiction to this tactic. Because every scenario could make Johnson the winner in the upcoming elections.
- Scenario 1 - The EU agrees to a Johnson deal without the much-hated backstop of many hardliners, Parliament agrees: The PM may celebrate itself as the politician who has finally pushed Brexit.
- Scenario 2 - Parliament accepts a deal, but ties the agreement to a second referendum: Johnson can present himself as a successful negotiator and promote his deal. The result of a referendum would be completely open.
- Scenario 3 - Johnson gives up, the EU does not join or the agreement fails in the House of Commons: In this case, Johnson may blame Brussels or the Westminors for failing. Even with this message, he could succeed in the election campaign - as a staunch leader in a no-deal exit on 31 October or continue as a Brexit contender in the event of a deferment.
- Scenario 4 - The deal bursts, the opposition overturns Johnson, forms an interim government, and requests an extension of the withdrawal period: Johnson would probably accuse his opponents of betraying the people and possibly even running for office with this slogan in new elections.
All this may sound like wild birds. But in Westminister dominates the chaos anyway: old political rules are hardly worth anything and Johnson had from the beginning no working government majority. Against this backdrop, the strategists at Downing Street have maneuvered their prime minister into a position that at least gives him a power perspective.
Merkel under pressure
On top of that, the British prime minister is now putting the EU under pressure - above all, one person: Angela Merkel.
Already in the past few days, Johnson's people have brought the Federal Chancellor into focus. On Tuesday leaked information about a phone conversation with Johnson, in which the Chancellor allegedly blackmailed the Prime Minister: There is a deal only if Northern Ireland remains in the Customs Union, it is said. An agreement, it was said, was thus no longer possible.
It was an affront and an obvious attempt to put Merkel in charge of a broken deal. The populist signal to the homeland: The Germans break our Brexit. Antideutic resentments have long been part of the repertoire of Brexit hardliners.
Now it became known: Johnson wants to call on Monday evening with Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker - and put her before the election: either they accept his proposal or agree to a Brexit without agreement.
Risk manageable
In fact, it is now mainly on Merkel and Macron. They are the spokesmen in the EU. Get involved in Johnson's game? With a deal they could finally avert the danger of an unregulated Brexit. Then internal border controls would be off the table. And on the EU side nobody would have to serve as a scapegoat. But how high would the price be? What concessions would Brussels have to make?
Even if there is no agreement: The risk would also be initially manageable for Merkel, Macron and Co. Because the dreaded hard Brexit on October 31 has become rather unlikely. Johnson is required by law to apply for a Brexit postponement if in doubt. If he does not do it, the opposition is likely to take control - and another head of government will conduct further talks with Brussels. Even the complete cancellation of the Brexit would still be possible.
On Sunday evening, Macron and Merkel want to discuss a dinner in the Élysée Palace. Too much reason to panic there is not for the time being. Deal or not.
