"We want to be a strong geopolitical commission," said Ursula von der Leyen at one of her first public appearances as designated EU Commission President. It was big words, and maybe the CDU politician will regret ever having spoken to her. Because the invasion of Turkey in Syria shows: Von der Leyen has a lot of work to do. Very much.
Currently, two points show how weak the EU is in terms of foreign policy: The Turkish invasion of Syria can only watch them passively. At the same time, there is a threat within the international community of a serious disagreement over the next eastward enlargement.
Instead of playing at the same level as power and influence with the world's big players, at their summit this week in Brussels, heads of state and government will first argue over the inclusion of two miniature states on the eastern edge of the EU. Almost all 28 governments are in favor of starting accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania. The French, however, reject that strictly. It is true that the Netherlands and Denmark also have reservations about Albania. But only France, according to EU sources, categorically says no to negotiations with both countries.
Macron threatens the isolation at the EU summit
The EU had often promised the North Macedonians that the accession process would start when they showed their willingness to compromise in the name dispute with Greece. The North Macedonians joined in - but the French government believes that the admission of both countries is currently not opportune domestic policy. However, the other EU countries, including Germany, fear that new conflicts could be promoted in the region, or that both countries could be pushed into the arms of the Russians or Chinese if they were disappointed again.
"Whoever blocks the EU enlargement process is responsible for the potential destabilization of our neighborhood," says an EU diplomat. "Moving on can not win anything, but you can lose a lot if you create a strategic vacuum in Southeastern Europe." The summit on Thursday and Friday now threatens a scandal. French President Emmanuel Macron, it is said, could end up in isolation. "That's where explosives pile up," says a senior diplomat.
In addition, at least as large an explosive device: Ankara's military action in Syria threatens to launch a wave of refugees in the direction of Europe and destabilize the entire region. But the EU could not even agree on a common warning. Hungary blocked the declaration of all 28 EU states until the Turkish military started to move. This was only possible because foreign policy was one of the areas where the EU had to decide unanimously.
Erdogan wants "final victory"
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promptly thanked Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Monday for his "support on the international stage". And what he thinks of the appeals of the EU, Erdogan also made it clear on a visit to Azerbaijan's capital Baku: "We are determined to carry out the operation to its end." The battle continues until the "final victory", "no matter what others say".
Virginia Mayo / AP
Luxembourg Foreign Minister Asselborn: Warning about the alliance case
On the same day, the EU tried to agree not to supply arms to Turkey - and failed again. Now every country has to decide for itself - as before. Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn tried to win at least a few positive sides of the plight: After all, they have managed to condemn the actions of Turkey together. Sure, there is no arms embargo or even sanctions. But, according to Asselborn, "it's a step".
The Council of EU Member States also states that national arms embargoes against Turkey are the harshest sanctions available under NATO partners. Asselborn had brought before the meeting the horror scenario into the conversation that NATO could be drawn into the conflict with: What if Syria smashed back towards Turkey? Would not that be an alliance case within the meaning of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty? "In German, that means that if all NATO countries were attacked, they would have to step in to help Turkey," Asselborn said.
Is Turkey drawing NATO into war?
This is considered absurd for Nato. It is decided by consensus, says the Alliance. And that countries like the US, Germany or France should now help Turkey, after they have just condemned their actions, one considers excluded.
Also international lawyers wave. "It is not realistic that it comes to an alliance case," says Berlin lawyer Helmut Aust. The argumentation of Turkey, that defend itself with the invasion in Syria only themselves, is "under international law on clay feet". It was completely unclear against which attacks Ankara wanted to defend itself in concrete terms and to what extent the Turkish state was threatened. "On the contrary, there is much to suggest that Turkey itself is breaking international law with its military action," says Aust.
Wolfgang Richter of the Berlin Foundation for Science and Politics accuses Ankara of having left out the UN Security Council and of using force instead. "The Turks have long pursued their political interests by military means," said Richter. If the Kurds defend themselves and also meet villages in Turkey, then this is not an attack in the sense of international law.
Asselborn also knows that, but he wanted to shake things up: "You sometimes have to overdraw," he says. In addition, no one can guess how it goes out. It is also conceivable that Syria or its allies attack Turkey later - and then the alliance occurs.
How Erdogan can blackmail the EU
On the other hand, there are also many voices calling for moderation. "It is important to keep in dialogue with Turkey in order to be able to influence them, and if that does not succeed, they will have to reserve further measures," said Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas.
The caution is well-founded - because in the EU is worried that Erdogan could cancel the refugee deal, if one condemns his actions in Syria too clearly. There are currently 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey - and soon more could come.
The fact that Turkey possesses such a strong bargaining position - some also say that there is so much blackmail potential - vis-à-vis the EU is, in turn, due to the fact that Europeans have been trying unsuccessfully for years to agree on a common asylum and migration policy. They can not even agree on the distribution of those who have arrived so far.
At any rate, the EU currently seems to be a long way from the "world-political capability" that President Jean-Claude Juncker once summoned.