Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of the terrorist organization "Islamic State" (IS), has published a fairly precise wish list. "The prisons, the prisons, oh soldiers of the caliphate," he said in a 30-minute audio recording a month ago. "Do your utmost to save your brothers and sisters and tear down the walls that keep them locked up."
What sounded a bit illusory a month ago now threatens to become true: since the beginning of the Turkish offensive, IS supporters have been able to flee, possibly hundreds. No one knows it right now. And there could be more.
The Turkish offensive in northeastern Syria threatens to destroy the successes against the terrorist organization. The Syrian-Kurdish militiamen, of whom thousands have died in the fight against the jihadists, are now busy repelling the Turks and their allies. So far, about 84,000 IS supporters have sat in their prisons, about 11,000 fighters and 73,000 of their wives and children. Some of the prisons are located near the Turkish border - exactly where fighting takes place.
Who released IS fighters - two theories, no evidence
Already jihadists escaped from the prison of Ain Issa on Sunday. The Syrian Kurds speak of more than 800 foreign fighters. But how exactly could that happen? Even if the prisons are fought and the guards are withdrawn, this does not automatically mean that the doors open or the prisoners manage to break out.
At first it was said that projectiles could have hit and damaged the prison walls of Ain Issa. Whether this is true is still unclear. US President Donald Trump claimed on Twitter that the Syrian Kurds had released the IS prisoners themselves - to force the United States to intervene again in the conflict. He presented no evidence for his claim.
But Turkey now takes up this thesis:
- On Monday she presented video footage showing soldiers storming through an empty prison.
- It said: This is the prison of Tel Abiad, in which so far jihadists were sitting - but it was empty, because the Syrian Kurds had released them before the Turks.
- Only: You can not see all this in the video. It is even unclear whether the Tel Abiad jail is also empty, or whether IS fighters continue to be trapped there.
The journal "Foreign Policy" reports on its homepage meanwhile from another version:
- The paper says the militias allied with Turkey deliberately release the IS fighters from the unguarded prisons.
- The report cites as a source two US officials.
- In other words, the US security apparatus has very different insights than the tweeting US president. And they suggest that Turkey's allies are fulfilling Baghdadi's request.
Turkey is working closely with Syrian militias on their offensive, which are usually invading the ground in front of Turkish soldiers. It is partly extremist and criminal fighters of the "Free Syrian Army" - Syrians who took up arms eight years ago to protect the demonstrators against the Syrian regime and its security forces, as well as intelligence prisoners.
However, after eight years of violence, most of these fighters are dead, escaped, or brutalized and radicalized. They are now fighting for the one who is paying the highest amount. In Afrin, for example, in north-western Syria, Turkey's partners are Islamist and radical Islamist militias that terrorize sections of the population. In northeastern Syria, Turkish-funded militias have already committed war crimes, executed captured Syrian-Kurdish militants, and possibly also murdered a Syrian-Kurdish politician.
The IS Strategy: Dive and Lurking for the Next Chance
It is a new horror scenario that the captured IS jihadists in northern Syria could now be deliberately released in the wake of the Turkish offensive. Because in the midst of the chaos of the ongoing fighting in the northeast of the civil war country, it is unlikely to be able to recover quickly. They will now dive and wait for their next chance.
IS chief Baghdadi had pledged his followers this year on the medium-term plan: Under the ambush, the enemy should be demoralized and wiped out with smaller attacks, until the time has come to beat him decisively and to proclaim the caliphate again.
Similarly, the predecessor organization of the IS had acted - with success: In the summer of 2010, the US and the Iraqi army believed that they had weakened the jihadists so much that they would not make a comeback as before. Four years later, the IS controlled large parts of Syria and Iraq.