Three governments in the past two and a half years, a permanent power struggle between president and executive, and again and again mass protests - no other country in the east of the European Union is as much in crisis mode as Romania. And: An end is not in sight.
The final act of this drama began in late August, when the nominal social-liberal coalition government collapsed, superficially, because Social Democrats (PSD) and Liberals (ALDE) could not agree on a common approach to the presidential election in November. Last week, the Cabinet of Prime Minister Viorica Dancila was dropped by a vote of no-confidence.
On Tuesday, President Klaus Johannis nominated the head of the opposition National Liberal Party (PNL), Ludovic Orbán, as Prime Minister and commissioned him to form a government. However, it will only become a transitional cabinet, because the parliamentary elections will take place next year.
Eleven prime ministers in five years
In any case, a Cabinet Orbán is expected to be only a minority government, as several parties have announced their conditional parliamentary support for Orbán and the PNL, but do not want to enter the government. This is not new. Romania is unstable since 1989:
- Since then, only two governments have held a full four-year mandate
- Eleven prime ministers have served in the past five years alone.
The current crisis period began after the parliamentary elections in late 2016, when the Social Democrats came to power and formed a coalition with the Liberals. Since then, the government has mainly been concerned with defusing the fight against corruption:
- For example, Laura Codruta Kövesi, the long-time head of the anti-corruption authority DNA, was deposed - many politicians and high-ranking officials were convicted under her name.
- Numerous legal anti-corruption regulations also changed the coalition.
- The consequences included a massive conflict with the EU Commission, which repeatedly called on Romania to withdraw its judicial reforms, and a power struggle between the government and President Johannis, who is close to the National Liberals.
There will be no real new beginning in Romania with the designated Prime Minister Ludovic Orbán. All parties are already in campaign mode. And the National Liberals promise to take back the reform of the judiciary and depoliticize the public administration. But for many, especially for the withdrawal of certain judicial reforms, they are currently unlikely to find a parliamentary majority.
The time after the election is likely to remain stable unstable. Romania's party landscape is fragmented, alliances change frequently, absolute government majorities have not existed for years.
Romania's policy has a corruption problem
Although the National Liberals are considered favorites. However, radical reforms in social, educational and health policy, as urgently needed by Romania, are unlikely to occur with them either.
In addition, while the National Liberals - unlike the Social Democrats - are not the symbol of corruption in the last three decades. But in recent years, numerous PNL MPs and local politicians have been convicted of corruption affairs. Even the designated transitional prime minister Orbán was accused of a campaign donation affair, but was acquitted in March 2018.
Romania's continuing crisis also has European-political consequences: two candidates for the Romanian post in the European Commission have already been rejected. The reason: suspicion of corruption. When a new candidate - and which - is nominated, is unclear.
Although head of state Johannis is likely to win the presidential election in November. He is a reliable partner of the EU, but in the unstable political situation in which Romania is, he has also made a lost impression in recent years. That is why Europe must continue to adapt to a Romanian constant: unpredictability.