United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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Let's tell you again, Europe can not be fast! Just over a week ago, Boris Johnson signaled a willingness to compromise following a meeting with Ireland's premier Leo Varadkar. Now British Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the European Commission, is in Brussels, and both announce: We have a deal. Michel Barnier, the Brexit chief negotiator, his team and their British colleagues have been working in the chord. (Follow all developments in the news blog here)
Sure, all of us, the EU and the UK, have been at this point, even several times. Even Johnson's predecessor, the hapless Theresa May had already taken in Brussels, only a little later to beg cheerfully for changes to the withdrawal contract. And what Johnson's assurance that he has a majority in London this time is really worth it will soon be seen when the British House of Commons meets for the first time in decades on a Saturday.
But at least: There is a deal - and that's good news for now. Right from the start, the EU has had its leverage in the negotiations, not least because it would not hit the economic consequences of a Brexit without a deal as hard as the British. The now achieved compromise, however, does not look at this balance of power. Both sides have given in, especially the EU.
Big concession of the EU, but also Johnson gives way
This mainly concerns the backstop, the so-called emergency solution, which should prevent a hard border on the Irish island. The backstop is no longer all-weather insurance. Instead, the solution now found, Northern Ireland largely in the EU single market and at least de facto partly in the Customs Union to be left, after some years with certain democratic majorities in Northern Ireland to be changed. This is a big concession from the EU and especially from Ireland.
Johnson in turn gives in when it comes to future relationships. He acknowledges that he can not simply get rid of EU consumer, environmental or state aid rules if he wants to do business with the EU at the same time. In front of the shores of the continent - as it is today - no British tiger will roar. For many in the EU, that is a relief.
Sure, it would have been possible to have the deal much earlier, if the British and the EU negotiators had negotiated as effectively as in previous weeks. Crucial parts of the compromise now found are reminiscent of the Northern Ireland backstop, which Theresa May - and Boris Johnson - had rejected as unacceptable in February 2018.
Whether the lower house in London agrees on Saturday is open
Nevertheless, the agreement remains a later victory of reason. The "squaring of the circle", which Chancellor Angela Merkel repeatedly talked about, has succeeded. In the end, everyone moved, albeit for different reasons:
- Boris Johnson wants to win the upcoming lower house elections in autumn and shrink the Brexit party. He succeeds best when he fulfills the only promise that interests his followers - and ensures Brexit, an orderly one at that.
- Merkel also wanted a deal. After all, the economy is already slowing down noticeably in Germany anyway and the dent, which would have brought a hard Brexit without an agreement in addition, Merkel did not want to risk.
- Even Emmanuel Macron sought the agreement. France's president has one main goal at Brexit - he wants to get rid of the British. The EU must finally take care of its own problems, climate change, slow economic growth, the lack of clout in foreign policy.
There are plenty of opportunities at the EU summit on Thursday and Friday. Europeans are debating whether and how much they should tackle Turkey and whether North Macedonia may join the Community.
During the Brexit negotiations, EU members have not been torn apart over the past two and a half years. This is one of the few positive surprises of the departure of the British.
Whether the London Parliament approves the agreement is completely open at the moment. However, the remaining EU members should definitely use Brexit as an opportunity to reboot.
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