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New Brexit deal: Johnson laughs

2019-10-17T19:23:25.594Z


Britain and the EU celebrate their Brexit agreement at the beginning of the summit. But it could die a quick death after two days in the British Parliament. EU diplomats are already counting.



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"Mr. Johnson, a question from France," shouts the journalist, stretching her arms. But Boris Johnson has now answered enough questions, if only those of the British press journalists, whom he knows all by first name. He must now go to dinner with the other leaders of the EU. "I'm late."

The French journalist does not give up so easily. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) had warned that Britain could now become a rival to the EU. But the British Prime Minister waves and is almost at the door.

Johnson really does not need questions about future economic competition. Britain's prime minister has only one message this evening, and that's positive: he was looking for a last minute Brexit deal with the rest of the EU. "It was a very productive day for the UK," he says. "This is a great deal for our country, but also for our friends in the EU."

But the key question is whether the MPs in the British House of Commons think the deal will be great. On Saturday they are to vote on the deal - and currently it looks rather not as if that will work out.

When British journalists ask, Johnson, who is otherwise said to be a brilliant speaker, mutates into a speech robot. Brexit has not always been a simple experience, he says. "But now is the time to get together."

May was back in Brussels shortly after - and asked for changes

Boris Johnson sounds like Theresa May in those moments. Even his predecessor was already standing at the desk in the British press room in the EU Council building and said: great deal, good for the country, the deputies will agree. A little later she was back in Brussels and asked for changes to her great deal.

Then came Johnson. On that day, it looks like a winner. Jean-Claude Juncker, the outgoing Commission chief, even did the British prime minister, before a first meeting in the afternoon, the privilege of excluding a postponement of the Brexit date. So Johnson hopes to increase the pressure on British MPs. They should have only one choice: his deal or the abyss of hard Brexit.

However, Juncker does not have much to say on this issue. The decision lies with the heads of state and government alone - and they do not even think of excluding an extension from the outset. "We have made no statement," Chancellor Merkel said after the agreement. One will wait for the decision of the "old and wise" lower house before deciding what to do next.

Should the deal fail again on Saturday in the lower house, the so-called Benn act would automatically take effect. The law requires Johnson, in this case in Brussels to ask for a further deferment of Brexit. It would be a humiliation for the Prime Minister, who had previously tended to prefer "to be dead in the ditch", rather than to take this step.

Video analysis on the Brexit deal: "For Johnson it will be very close"

Video

Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD / AFP; Christian Daitche

But Johnson could not help remaining in the end. For unlike his predecessor Theresa May, Johnson has not had his own majority in parliament since he dropped 21 rebels from his own Tory faction. And as soon as the Brexit deal became public on Thursday, the northern Irish small party DUP already announced its intention to vote against the deal.

In turn, the Brexit hardliners of the European Research Group within Johnson's Tory party have promised to follow the Northern Ireland Unionist in this case. So Johnson would need dozens of MPs from the opposition Labor Party to get him a majority in parliament.

Opposition Leader Corbyn: "Negotiated Deal Negotiated May"

But that too seems doubtful. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn castigated Johnson's deal as a "treacherous deal" that would endanger food safety, undermine environmental standards and workers' rights, and make NHS - a sort of popular shrine in the UK - a victim of American investors. Johnson, tweeted Corbyn, "negotiated an even worse deal than Theresa May." A bad judgment is hardly conceivable in British politics.

An internal calculation from an EU capital, the diplomats pass around nervously, also gives little cause for hope. According to him, even if there were several ERG Brexiters, critical Tory MPs and the Labor people who had previously voted for an agreement, Johnson would lose five votes to the majority. On the other hand, should the ERG remain true to its promise and stay with the DUP, Johnson would remain 55 votes below the necessary threshold.

At best, he would have a majority of 29 votes - then according to the table 22 Labor MPs would have to vote for his plan. However, they would have to forgive Johnson for forgetting that he recently tried to shut down the parliament illegally and dismissed worries of Brexit-critical MPs as "nonsense" against violent extremists.

Hard Brexit, new elections, second referendum - everything is still possible

What would happen after a rejection in the House of Commons and another Brexit reprieve, nobody knows. Everything would be possible, such as new elections or a second referendum, which may still stop the Brexit.

The Brexit drama could go on - in Brussels some diplomats even fear that it could drag on until the next summer. It is not without reason that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said he was "happy and relieved" that they had finally agreed on a deal.

Then he was asked what he had to say - as if to say goodbye - to the 48 percent of British voters who had voted against the EU withdrawal at the Brexit referendum in June 2016. Juncker's terse answer: "You were right."

Source: spiegel

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