[Sydney 17th Reuters]-Employment statistics in September announced by the Australian Federal Statistical Office, the number of employees increased by 14,700 from the previous month, in line with market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell for the first time in seven months. Early signs of labor market tightening may begin to appear.
The unemployment rate was 5.2%, down from 5.3% in the previous month, the highest level in a year. The background is the decline in job seekers.
The number of full-time employees increased by 26,200, accounting for all the increase.
After the announcement of statistics, the Australian dollar <AUD = D3> rose to $ 0.6783.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (Central Bank, RBA) has cut interest rates three times this year to help boost the economy, and improvements in employment statistics are likely to be a welcome element.
However, the unemployment rate continues to be well above the 4.5% desired by the central bank, so unless further improvements are seen, the need for additional mitigation measures will not be considered reduced.
The central bank's deputy governor, Debel, pointed out on the 17th that the deterioration of the domestic real estate market has hit household consumption and is a major impediment to economic growth and inflation. Despite the three rate cuts this year, this situation is expected to continue for at least the next year.
“The RBA will be relieved that the unemployment rate has fallen,” said Mercel Thieleant, an economist at Capital Economics. “However, the employment survey shows that employment growth has slowed, and we expect the unemployment rate to reach 5.5% early next year,” he said.
On top of that, the central bank predicted that the interest rate would be cut to 0.5% in December.
The probability of a rate cut in November that the futures market <0 # YIB:> incorporates is 20%, and in December the probability has risen to 60%.