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Why Brexit at the EU summit is not the most explosive topic

2019-10-17T11:41:25.442Z


The EU Commission and the UK have agreed on an exit deal. But as the other 27 EU states judge it is open. And Brexit is not even the most explosive topic at the summit in Brussels.



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The Brexit has often strained the patience of the EU, but rarely as much as this week. Actually, Tuesday night was the last deadline for the draft of an agreement to be submitted to the governments of the EU member states. Only then, it was said, would the Heads of State and Government have enough time to at least take a quick look at the content of the agreement before meeting on Thursday afternoon in Brussels for the summit.

But only late Thursday morning came the redeeming news that the negotiators have agreed. The three-and-a-half hour experts left EU countries with at least superficial study of hundreds of pages of treaty before the Brexit meeting of heads of state and government began.

Every trusted EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, say EU diplomats. Nevertheless, the governments did not want to give up their own examination. One thing is clear, says an EU diplomat: The agreement must prevent the emergence of a new hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and protect the EU's internal market from smuggling. "If these principles are ignored, there will be no deal."

But the bigger hurdle is in London: on Saturday British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has to submit the agreement to Parliament. And whether the lower house agrees is by no means certain. For the small, but influential Northern Irish Unionist Party DUP has filed concerns until recently, and also some Brexit hardliners in Johnson's Tory party have sharply criticized the details of the agreement known so far.

Accordingly, the backstop, the emergency solution for the Northern Ireland border, should be removed in its old form and restricted in other form to Northern Ireland. The province should remain in the EU's internal market, but not in a customs union with the EU. The United Kingdom should levy customs duties on goods that are to enter the EU via Northern Ireland after Brexit. This is to ensure that the corresponding goods comply with EU standards. At the same time, the United Kingdom will be able to conclude its own customs agreements with third countries. The result would also be a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom - which is unlikely to be acceptable to British nationalists.

Brexit is not even the most explosive summit issue

Brexit is not even the most controversial topic on the summit agenda. A real scandal threatens, for example, on the question of the start of accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania. At the meeting of Europe Ministers on Tuesday there was already a dispute: All EU members wanted to give their consent for a start of the talks, only France rejected the two candidate countries categorically. Denmark and the Netherlands also raised concerns, albeit to a lesser extent.

For the EU, the issue is about credibility, especially in North Macedonia. She had repeatedly promised to start the negotiations. The country even changed its name to urge the EU to settle the long-smoldering dispute with Greece. Since then, the EU has a duty. This is also the view of North Macedonia's Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, who stopped by in Brussels on Wednesday. "The disappointment of the people and the parliament and the loss of confidence in the EU will be great," he said with a view to a possible refusal.

But above all France's President Emmanuel Macron remains hard so far. EU diplomats can not even explain why he remains vetoed, even though his country is largely isolated on the issue. Fear of the yellow vests or the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen are possible explanations. In addition, Paris has always been one of the accession skeptics. Officially, the French also demand a fundamental reform of the accession process.

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On the other hand, the debate on enlargement hardly plays a role in the French public, according to Brussels. In addition, Macron is usually located in a powerful role in EU foreign policy. But if the EU does not deliver on its promises in the Western Balkans, it will boost the already growing influence of Russia and China in the important region. EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn already warns that it could be demotivating for other candidate countries if "objective progress" were not recognized.

As the European ministers did not move forward, EU Council President Donald Tusk put the issue on the agenda at the summit. "Not everyone was happy about that," says Tusk. But you had no choice.

"The scraps flown"

Anger threatens also in the negotiations on the next medium-term budget of the EU, the so-called multiannual financial framework (MFF) for the years 2021 to 2027. So far, the member countries pay one percent of their gross national income in the EU pot, bringing together about one trillion euros. The exit of the net payer of Britain, however, will tear a hole in the budget. The EU Commission is therefore calling for an increase to 1.1 percent, and net recipients among the EU countries also want more money.

Germany and some western and northern European countries are against it. According to Berlin government circles, Brexit would lead to additional costs in the tens of billions of euros every year even without a budget increase. At a meeting of the EU ambassadors on the subject had recently "the scraps flown", as one participant formulated. Hardly anyone in Brussels believes that the dispute is resolved before Germany takes over the EU Presidency in the second half of 2020.

But those who are referees can not at the same time powerfully defend their own interests, one fears in Berlin. The Presidency of the Council could be expensive for Germany.

Source: spiegel

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