The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Focus: New Brexit agreement proposed to be “severely strict” for the UK economy

2019-10-18T22:58:37.425Z


[London 17th Reuters]-If British Prime Minister Johnson agreed with the European Union (EU) on the 17th, the UK EU Brexit agreement would come into effect, and the economic barriers to the EU would increase compared to the former Prime Minister May The country seems to be poor


[London 17th Reuters]-If British Prime Minister Johnson agreed with the European Union (EU) on the 17th, the UK EU Brexit agreement would come into effect, and the economic barriers to the EU would increase compared to the former Prime Minister May The country looks poor.

To implement the agreed agreement, it is necessary to obtain approval by a vote of the British Parliament on the 19th. Paul O'Connor, who runs Janus Henderson, said: “Even if Prime Minister Johnson was able to finalize the agreement (with parliamentary approval), there was widespread recognition that it would be a tough Brexit, "It may get cold soon."

According to estimates by the UK Treasury and most external economists, if the barrier to trade with the EU increases, the growth rate of the UK economy will be lower than if it remains in the EU, and the higher the barrier, the greater the negative impact It is.

According to an estimate by the research firm “UK in the Changing Europe” based on the proposal of Mr. Johnson presented last week, the income per UK citizen is 6% in the medium term compared with the case of EU remaining, £ 2,000 ($ 2570) per year ) Decrease considerably.

In the case of the former Prime Minister Mei's proposal, the rate of income decline will be less than 5%, and if it is "withdrawal without agreement", it will decrease by more than 8%.

On the other hand, British Finance Minister Javid argued on the 17th that “the obvious reason” is that the uncertainties that blocked the company's capital investment by the agreement between Johnson and EU were clear.

<Financial market>

The financial markets welcomed the agreement on the 17th, as the risk of “leave without agreement” has declined.

But Dean Turner, economist at UBS Wealth Management, sees this as a temporary boost to UK growth, but the long-term trade environment is too opaque to lead to a recovery in capital investment . “I don't feel like celebrating yet. Economic activity is likely to pick up a little, but not so much that the British economy can get out of the low growth trend.”

According to estimates by think tanks and the European Reform Center, the UK economy is already about 3% smaller than in the 2016 referendum when EU was chosen.

Analysts point out that Johnson ’s agreement is almost the same as May ’s agreement with EU, but the accompanying “political declaration” has faded.

Mr. Mei's proposal aims to “close as close as possible” to the trade agreement with the EU in the future, but the amended proposal has been replaced by “ambitious” words.

“The idea of ​​Mei ’s proposal would have been a softer agreement than a free trade agreement (FTA). The current government wants the FTA. "It seems that the situation is quite different: there remains a regulatory barrier between the UK and the EU, especially in the trade of goods."

According to Raquel Kent, Hogan Labels' attorney at the financial services sector, the original draft of a political declaration should have been tied to EU regulation to access the EU market, but the revised proposal does. Became more obvious. The UK regulators said that after leaving the EU, they would like to “make” instead of “accepting the rules”, increasing the possibility of the UK and EU financial markets being divided.

Stojjanovic believes that Britain has the freedom to sign bilateral trade agreements with countries around the world, but cannot fill the economic activity lost by Brexit. “Even if Britain has agreements with all countries, it will only push UK gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2% in 15 years. Most FTAs ​​do not contribute much to GDP.”

(David Milliken reporter, Mark John reporter)

* Add category and resend.

(* Please refer to the related content menu on the right side of the screen for related information such as original articles)

Source: asahi

All news articles on 2019-10-18

You may like

Business 2024-01-31T05:02:18.609Z
News/Politics 2024-02-04T11:50:26.682Z

Trends 24h

News/Politics 2024-03-28T06:04:53.137Z

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.