Canada's climate campaign: This man wants to replace Trudeau

It is not often that Barack Obama is commenting on political issues. For more than one and a half years, the ex-president had a tradition and left the work of his successor uncommented. With the approach of the Midterm election in the US last fall, he finally broke with it: Obama criticized Donald Trump - and campaigned for the Democrats.

Almost exactly a year later, the former US president once again spoke out on an election campaign. While at the White House, he was proud to work with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Obama tweeted a few days before the Canadian House of Commons election on Monday.

Trudeau tackles "big issues like climate change". "The world now needs its progressive leadership qualities, and I hope that our northern neighbors will give it support for another term."

I am proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President. He's a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change. The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.

26 million eligible in six time zones are called to vote for the Canadian Parliament. Internationally, Trudeau may have positioned Canada as a climate pioneer in his first term. In the election campaign at home, however, he is exposed to the topic of attacks from the right as from the left.

First there is his conservative challenger Andrew Scheer. He recently called Trudeau a "high-carbon hypocrite" (freely translated: a "climate hypocrite"). Reason for this: The liberal prime minister and his team contested their election campaign dates with the help of two aircraft.

Stephane Mahe / REUTERS

Justin Trudeau in the election campaign in Nunavut in northern Canada: His image as a progressive model boy has suffered damage

Should he become prime minister, Scheer says, he wants to reduce Trudeau's climate policy with top priority. Above all, he plans to abolish a lower limit on the price of CO2, to which Trudeau's government in Ottawa has committed those provinces which until April did not submit their own plan for the price of CO2. This minimum price set by the federal government is currently at 20 Canadian dollars per tonne and is expected to increase by ten dollars per year by 2022.

Scheer wants to replace Trudeau's carbon tax with a series of incentives and regulations. However, few experts believe that Canada would meet its obligations under the Paris Climate Agreement - especially as Scheer plans a "national energy corridor". This will transport oil and gas from Alberta and Scheer's home province of Saskatchewan to the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

Scheer's intent was not to obscure Obama's praise for anything else: in terms of climate, Trudeau is much more realpolitiker than his international image suggests. The prime minister spent $ 4.5 billion (about $ 3.4 billion) on a pipeline that connects the Alberta oil sands fields to the country's west coast.

Even under Trudeau's climate plan, Canada would miss the Paris targets as it stands. That would not change if his government implements an election campaign proposal from the Prime Minister and planted two billion new trees. Nevertheless, Trudeau should have created a good basis with the lower limit: in the event of re-election, he could raise the minimum price for CO2 beyond the year 2022.

"What about the pipeline?"

Nevertheless, the climate policy of the head of government makes him vulnerable to attacks from the left - and endangers his backing among young voters. "What's up with the pipeline?", Young participants at the end of September called him to a climate study where Trudeau came along.

According to surveys, the support that the prime minister receives from young voters has dropped significantly compared to the 2015 election campaign. Some of them may vote for one of the parties to the left of Trudeau's Liberal Party, such as the Greens or the New Democratic Party (NDP) with its charismatic leader Jagmeet Singh.

Nathan Denette / The Canadian Press via AP

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh: Charismatic left of Trudeau

Other young Canadians could stay away from the election. "If they do not show up, that could change the situation very quickly," warned Anna Gainey in The New York Times. The former party leader of the Liberals is considered one of the architects behind Trudeau's rise. She points out that people under 35 are now the largest constituency in the country.

Trudeau's image as a liberal model boy is scratched

Unemployment in Canada is low; the economy is growing, albeit moderately. It is thanks to the Trudeau government that the Trump presidency has not changed that, despite personal attacks on the PM and a US President's protectionist economic course. This is shown not least by the Nafta successor agreement USMCA.

Trudeau also scored points in the legalization of marijuana and the admission of refugees to the left-liberal base. His image as a progressive model boy, however, has suffered considerable damage during his first term. This is not only due to the pipeline deal, but also to two scandals:

• A parliamentary ethics committee in Ottawa concluded in August that Trudeau had attempted to improperly influence the investigation of then Justice Minister, Jody Wilson-Raybould, in a bribery case involving SNC-Lavalin. Wilson-Raybould was the first indigenous woman in the post. Better relations with the "First Nations", the indigenous people of Canada, as well as an emphatically feminist profile in 2015, were among the pillars of Trudeau's candidacy. (Read more about the case here.)
• In September, a photo from the year 2001, which shows Trudeau on a costume ball with turban and dark face paint.

In both cases, the prime minister apologized. His behavior nourished nevertheless the hypocrisy reproaches of its conservative challenger Scheer. However, in factual issues, the differences between the two - aside from climate policy - are not large. Faithful Catholic Scheer is skeptical of same-sex marriage but does not want to change its legality.

Scheer's Conservatives and Trudeau's Liberals were the same in polls. However, because of the relative majority voting, demoscopi are currently more likely to see the Liberals gain more parliamentary seats. Because both parties seem far removed from the absolute majority of 170 seats, the formation of a minority government is likely.