United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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Boris Johnson has a lot to blame for in these weeks: The poisoned political climate in London, the split in British society, the crumbling trust in democratic institutions - all of which the premier with his anger rhetoric and his hard-hitting Brexit course certainly has its contribution done.
But it is also clear: Johnson has done what until recently was considered almost impossible. He has wrested new concessions from the EU in the Brexit deal - and there is a real chance that the UK Parliament will approve the deal.
Despite all the devastating defeat of the House of Commons for Johnson, the Parliament is actually deliberating on the EU's exit law. So this package is that the agreements with Brussels should pour into British law. It is the all-important stage in the Brexit process, a stage Johnson's predecessor Theresa May never achieved.
According to the will of the government everything should go very fast now. If the MEPs cramming the historic law through the House of Commons by Thursday, that's the idea, the British could actually leave the EU on 31 October. Johnson would have fulfilled one of his greatest promises. But the prime minister must expect resistance.
1) What is it about?
The British parliament must actually ratify the Brexit deal in two steps: the basic approval by a simple vote in the lower house is necessary - the so-called "meaningful vote" . But then the contents of the contract must be translated into concrete legal texts: the "Withdrawal Agreement Bill" (WAB, Retraction Agreement Act). This, in turn, has long been considered a matter of form when the MEPs have already politically approved the agreement.
In a highly anticipated vote on Saturday, however, the parliamentarians gave their consent under reservation: first everything should be legally clarified, it was said. A maneuver to prevent an unregulated Brexit in the coming week. As a result, Johnson was forced to apply for a postponement of the withdrawal date in Brussels. In addition, the willingness of the government's opponents to use the legal process to torpedo Johnson's Brexit plans has increased.
In other words, the focus is now fully on the WAB. This law will determine how Brexit will continue.
2) What is in the law?
The draft consists of 110 pages and mostly includes agreements that Theresa May had made with the EU.
- For example, there is the transition phase : until the end of 2020, EU law will apply even after the official Brexit in Great Britain. In addition, London continues to pay into the EU budget, but has no say in Brussels. The transitional period can be extended for a further two years, provided that Parliament joins Westminster.
- It also regulates the rights of EU citizens in Britain: they should retain their right of residence and social benefits for the time being. Anyone who has lived in the country for five years at a time can apply for a permanent right of residence.
- The legislative package should also create the conditions for the payment of money to the EU . How much the British ultimately owe Brussels is not yet clear. In the room are about 39 billion euros.
The dispute in recent months, however, had almost exclusively revolved around the question of what happens to the Irish island. In order to avoid a hard border, former Prime Minister May wanted to hold Britain in the EU Customs Union if necessary. Unacceptable for the Brexit hardliners.
- Johnson and the EU have therefore agreed on a trick: Northern Ireland is leaving the customs union with the entire kingdom - at least officially. This allows the British to conclude their own trade agreements and to preserve the appearance of a clear break. Nevertheless, in Northern Ireland, EU tariffs and internal market rules apply to some goods and goods. The necessary controls are to take place in the Irish Sea in the future.
- The exit law also contains a number of concessions, with which the government apparently wants to draw on remaining doubters in its own ranks and potential supporters of the Labor opposition: MEPs should be allowed to have a say in the strategy for the upcoming trade talks. In addition, British workers' rights should not fall behind EU standards without parliamentary approval.
3) What's next?
The law is debated in several stages before it goes to the House of Lords. There are two polls scheduled for Tuesday. At second reading, MEPs may, in principle, declare their agreement to the law that translates Johnson's Brexit deal into British law. This is the prerequisite for being able to go into the detailed consultation.
If the government fails here, at least theoretically an unregulated Brexit threatens on 31 October, unless the EU grants a deferral. However, it can be assumed that almost all conservative Johnson critics and some Labor rebels do not want to break the deal. The chances for the premier are so good.
On the other hand, there is more resistance to the vote on the government's timetable. Johnson wants to whip the resignation bill through the House of Commons in just three days. Many MEPs consider that totally inappropriate. Actually, the House of Commons has to deal with international treaties for at least 21 sitting days. It is quite possible that Johnson will not find a majority for his hectic plan. In this case, a Brexit on 31 October would hardly be possible.
On Wednesday, Johnson's opponents could eventually bring their own supplementary proposals - and so try to change the Brexit course of the government again in principle. It expects initiatives that should keep the UK in the EU Customs Union or call for a second Brexit referendum. The prospects are not very good. The government would presumably withdraw a correspondingly softened law anyway - and start new elections instead.