It's been a long time since a politician other than Benjamin Netanyahu emerged victorious from a Knesset election. In 2009, the long-forgotten Tzipi Livni was more successful than the Likud politician.
In the same year Barack Obama was sworn in as US President, the "King of Pop" Michael Jackson died and the financial crisis threatened the global economy. Long ago. In the end Netanyahu became Prime Minister, because then Foreign Minister Livni did not get a majority.
A decade later, a similar situation has occurred. On Monday, on his 70th birthday and 52 hours before deadline, Benjamin Netanyahu informed Israeli President Reuven Rivlin that he could not form a government.
Gantz has no parliamentary majority behind it
The president will therefore speak with Benny Gantz, tasking him with finding a majority coalition. The opposition politician and former Chief of Staff is facing a difficult task. (Read more about the backgrounds here)
Although Gantz emerged as the strongest force in the second round of elections this year with his blue-white election list in September, he has never been a brilliant winner in recent weeks. The reason: He lacks a majority in the Israeli parliament, which supports him as a prime minister.
Rather, it looks like Netanyahu, the undisputed tactician in Israeli politics, has been waiting for this moment: the Israeli Attorney General will decide by the end of the year if he will face corruption in three cases , Of this, his political future depends significantly. But it is also clear that now also Gantz has to deliver - and probably can not:
- The 60-year-old wants to form a secular government with the Likud of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israel Beitenu Party of former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. But this excludes, as well as Gantz, a government with the participation of Netanyahu.
- The problem: Netanyahu leads the Likud - so far - still with a hard hand, a coup against him is not in sight. If Gantz lacks the votes of the Likud, he can not form a government.
Given this background and the fact that neither the right-wing religious camp nor the center-left camp has a majority of 61 out of 120 parliamentary seats, Gantz could try to form a minority government over the next 28 days. Because, as the left-liberal "Haaretz" aptly stated, "fairy-tale fairies will not show up and move the blocks with magical hands to give them a government majority."
New elections as a horror scenario - and chance for Netanyahu
But he needed the support from parliament, for example, by more center-left parties and by Lieberman. But whether the secular nationalist joins a minority government of the more liberal Gantz is completely open. A toleration by the Arab party bloc, after all, third-strongest force in the elections, would help, but is also questionable.
If Gantz does not succeed in the next four weeks, the dissolution of the Knesset shortly before New Year is the most realistic scenario. Then there will be 2020 new elections - the third within twelve months.
Although a majority of Israeli voters consider this as a horror scenario. But for Netanyahu it would be the next last chance. He would be - presumably - another six months Prime Minister, at least he would run the business. And campaigning, he has proved, he can do better than any other political rival. Only the Prosecutor General's Office could ruin his bill. But it is not that far yet.
