Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) has made a proposal for a turnaround in German Syria policy - an area for which she is not responsible, but her colleague, SPD Foreign Minister Heiko Maas.
In an interview with the "Deutsche Welle" Kramp-Karrenbauer demanded: "My suggestion is that we set up an internationally controlled security zone involving Turkey and Russia." How could this idea look in practice?
What is an internationally controlled security zone?
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer did not specify what she means. Should the security zone be a no-fly zone or be it on the ground? In any case, the creation of such a zone would require a decision by the UN Security Council.
But this is split, especially in the Syria question. Russia's veto has hitherto always prevented a common international approach; This month, Russia and the US even voted against a declaration made by the Europeans to condemn the Turkish offensive in northern Syria.
How could Turkey and Russia be involved?
This point seems particularly questionable. Turkey and Russia are belligerents in Syria:
- Turkey - and the militias it supports - are accused of ethnic displacement in northwestern Syria.
- Russia among other things the systematic bombing of residential areas and hospitals.
How such countries could contribute to a security zone that protects people in Syria is therefore completely unclear. Kramp-Karrenbauer's idea requires a 180-degree turnaround of Russian and Turkish politics.
How is your idea different from Erdogan's buffer zone proposal?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursues his own interests with his proposal:
- He wants to get rid of the Syrian refugees in Turkey, because of which he recently came under domestic pressure.
- He also wants to set up a buffer zone between Turkey and the Syrian branch of the Kurdish Workers' Party PKK.
Therefore, before the UN General Assembly in September, he proposed to set up a 30-kilometer-wide "peace zone" along the Syrian-Turkish border and to relocate there one million Syrians who have lived in Turkey so far. Ankara even spoke of the resettlement of as many as two million Syrians. Internationally, however, his proposal has found no support.
Now he wants to set up this zone in cooperation with Islamist Syrian militias. This would probably mean the expulsion of the Syrians living there so far, among them there are many ethnic and denominational minorities - a war crime. The extent to which he can implement his plan essentially depends on Russian President Putin, with whom he agrees on Tuesday in Sochi.
How is the AKK plan different from Trump's proposal?
De facto, the US had established a security zone under Trump's predecessor Barack Obama in northern Syria, but without an international mandate, as Kramp-Karrenbauer demands. The US fighter jets in the air and the presence of 200 American soldiers on the ground had been enough to act as a deterrent:
- Russia and Syria did not bomb this part of the country, and Turkey also refrained from invading it.
- A direct confrontation with the still largest military power in the world Ankara, Moscow and Damascus did not want to risk.
For almost a year, however, US President Donald Trump wanted to pull the American soldiers out of them and suggested that European soldiers could take their place. Only it seemed hopeless for this proposal, to get an international mandate of the UN Security Council. In July, the federal government rejected Washington's request for German ground troops for Syria.
What is the Federal Government's opinion of Kramp-Karrenbauer's idea?
The Federal Foreign Office and Chancellor Angela Merkel have reacted very cautiously to the idea - and these are the institutions that are important in this area. The German Minister of Defense alone can not initiate a U-turn - certainly not for a policy for which she is not even responsible.