United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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Boris Johnson did not just look to Brexit on October 31st. It was his most important promise in the past months. A promise that he scored in the Tory power struggle, with which he became party leader and finally Prime Minister.
At the end of October they will leave, repeated Johnson mantrahaft - "Come what may". He would rather "lie dead in the ditch" instead of asking for a stay in Brussels.
On Thursday of this week, something extraordinary happened: Britain's head of state had to officially admit that his protestations are of little value. A remarkable process - after all, it is about trust and the most powerful man in the kingdom. Only, that went down a bit. Instead, Britain has been discussing other things ever since. New elections for example. Or the Labor Opposition.
One, at least that's clear, Johnson has already achieved with his recent tactical maneuver: he has successfully distracted from his own failure - and instead, his opponents into focus.
Johnson's Brexit trade
The latest idea from Downing Street is a poisoned offer to the opposition: The prime minister wants to give parliamentarians more time to debate his Brexit treaty. MEPs demanded that earlier this week when Johnson tried to rush the deal through the House of Commons.
By 6 November, Johnson announced it, the House of Commons should now be able to ratify the deal. However, only on one condition: The opposition would have to approve new elections on 12 December.
Why Johnson wants campaigning is clear. His situation is currently extremely tricky. The Tories in parliament are far from a majority, normal government work is impossible. Many conservatives no longer believe in approval for the Brexit deal in the House of Commons, at least not in its current form. New elections should be the way out, a liberation to strengthen and be able to undermine Brexit undisturbed by a clear majority.
But the proposed trade has another function. He should put the opposition under pressure. What's more, Labor is now in a true credibility dilemma.
For years demands for new elections
For years, the party has been pulling this same demand through the country: new elections. But now that the opportunity to challenge Johnson is close enough to touch, one adores oneself on the opposition booths.
An election before Christmas was "very unusual," said Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn. And anyway: Johnson should first step on Monday before the parliament and exclude a "No Deal" end of 2020. In that case, the transitional period agreed with the EU will expire. If it is not renewed and there is no trade agreement with Brussels until then, London would be in a sense retroactively faced with a hard Brexit.
Recently, Corbyn had suggested that he could agree to new elections when it is clear that the British will not be leaving the EU on 31 October. It now seems clear that Brussels will grant a corresponding reprieve. But that is no longer enough for Labor.
The reason seems clear: The party is in the polls are not good, is sometimes up to 15 percentage points behind the Tories. And it could get worse. Although Corbyn proved in 2017 that he can mobilize the masses and catch up with a large gap. But then the situation was not so pointed.
The problem: Many traditional Labor constituencies in the Midlands and North are also Brexit strongholds. And Johnson is already planning a major attack on the actually red areas. His strategy is foreseeable:
- Can he still enforce his deal, he would be the big Brexit winner.
- If he fails, he will blame his opponents.
Either way, Labor would remain on the defensive. Consequently, many oppositionists feel little desire to risk their own seat.
No real chance for change
And even the promise of further debates in the lower house seems less attractive on closer inspection. For a real prospect of being able to re-steer in Brexit this way, have hardly Johnson's opponent. It is safe to assume that the government will withdraw the Brexit legislative initiative as soon as it softens its amendments. In addition, the period now offered is extremely tight and offers few opportunities to get in the way of the government with other procedural tricks and parliamentary tricks.
But can Labor allow itself to be blown away? At any rate, it would be hard for the party to explain why it is now avoiding direct confrontation. Johnson knows that, too. One can be sure that the Premier would relish defaming the opposition as a quitter if she did not play his game.
Corbyn and his people probably have something else in mind: they probably want to play for time, Johnson in a wear and tear fight in the Commons, until his image is battered even at its biggest supporters.
But even in this case, the prime minister has a means of pressure at hand. It is a particularly perfidious threat: Should the parliament reject new elections, he had his spokesman announce that the government would practically stop the work actually being done in the lower house - and thus offer as little as possible a platform for anti-government initiatives.
Instead, you will continue to fight for new elections, "every day". That means: No decision on the budget, no further Brexit debates, instead rage and hate and repeatedly voting on elections - until the opposition at some point, so the calculus. It would be the next chaos scenario.