comment
Olaf Scholz loves to control political processes. Deals and legislative procedures, elections and mood tests - the cool Hanseat usually leaves nothing to chance. In this respect, it was almost a sensation when Scholz plunged into the race for the SPD presidency a few weeks ago and thus passed into the hands of the party members. There is nothing controllable, nothing. You can see that now.
When you look closely, the disillusionment comes
Yes, Scholz and his tandem partner Klara Geywitz may have won the first round in the party's membership vote, but if you look closely, you realize that the result of the two is sobering. At 23 percent, they are not even two percentage points ahead of the favorites of the Jusos, Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken, who are widely unknown beyond North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg. And because only half of the SPD members voted at all, in fact only one in ten Social Democrats has voted for someone who, as Vice Chancellor and Federal Finance Minister, had a far greater stage than any other in the field. Ouch.
Three forecasts can be made. First, the Grand Coalition can breathe only partially, if at all. Scholz's role in the Federal Government is weakened rather than strengthened by the vote. The Union does not know now, rudimentarily, what it will get presented at the party congress of the SPD in December. Either Scholz and Geywitz, who want to continue the alliance. Or Walter Borjans and Esken, who tend to end the coalition. This uncertainty is likely to complicate the compromise in the government. Why should CDU and CSU the SPD now generous to meet - for example, when so fundamental for the Social Democrats theme land rent?
Does Olaf Scholz help his routine?
Second: The first round was a nice touch, the ballot in the SPD is now the direction decision - with clear role distributions. Whether the grand coalition or the black zero, whether the future of Hartz IV or the distribution of wealth: There are several fields in which the teams tick differently. The rebellious, tried with the Walter-Borjans and Esken in the first round of introductory to score points, may seem set up, at least Esken did not appear in the parliamentary group so far as the most generous in appearance. But because they have never played a role in the federal SPD, they will somehow stand for the new and Scholz and Geywitz for the next.
The latter is the more miserable part, at least in a party where dissatisfaction with the status quo was probably never as high as it is now. Scholz will now have to pull the chancellor's card, the announcement that the presidency also decides on the next top candidate. The Hamburger has an advantage, he is experienced, he has already won elections and knows his way around the world stage. Its disadvantage is that the currently so miserable polls make a chancellor candidate seem like megalomania.
Experiment or well-tried?
The third forecast may sound bleak, but it should not be kept silent: at the end of November there will be a winning pair. But maybe the SPD will not help either team. Scholz and Geywitz know each other, but they stand for an old, far too much on the internal organization directed party and political understanding. Walter Borjans and Esken stand for an experiment, only the SPD was rarely in their history to have for experiments. Whichever duo wins, victory will be tight. And the tighter the victory, the greater the likelihood of having to deal with serious authority issues from day one.
And so it could end in the end, as so often in the SPD: Actually, it's just about a transitional presidency again.