Exhausted but happy, Alberto Fernandez appeared in front of his supporters in Buenos Aires on Sunday evening to give his first speech as newly elected president of Argentina. Fernandez spoke of a "new logic" that Argentina voted for that day. He sees this election as a mandate, he said, to form a country that is "more solid and egalitarian" and "privileges those who work and produce".
48 per cent of the vote went to Fernandez and his future representative, former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Incumbent Mauricio Macri came to 40 percent.
Magali Druscovich / REUTERS
Election party: De Kirchner and Fernandez in front of their supporters
Although Fernandez's electoral victory turned out to be a little tighter than forecasts suggest, it is the clear expression of a change in sentiment that has emerged in recent weeks:
- For two years, the third largest economy in Latin America has been in a serious crisis.
- Since the beginning of 2018, the peso has lost more than two-thirds of its value.
- Inflation has leveled out at just under 50 percent.
- This year alone, three million Argentines have slipped into poverty.
In the face of this dramatic situation, Macri, who had pledged to reduce poverty to zero, had run out of arguments. Although he had repeatedly pointed out during the election campaign that he had not had enough time for his neo-liberal reforms, the Argentines in the end rather trusted his challenger to lead the country out of the crisis.
"We will do everything we can to reopen the factories"
When Macri sent his congratulations to the election winner by telephone in the evening, he promised an orderly handover of government affairs. On December 10, Fernandez is officially sworn in.
What exactly Fernandez is up to now, is largely unclear. In the coming weeks he will have to come forward with a concrete plan to overcome the recession and stabilize the currency. How disturbed the confidence of the Argentines in their own economy is, you could observe on Friday, as in the whole country in front of the banks of people were waiting to buy dollars.
"We will do everything we can to reopen the factories," Fernandez said on election night. "We want the machines to restart and people to find work again."
Argentina's new president faces tough negotiations with the IMF
He promised to invest in public education and in the health system. During the election campaign, he had emphasized that it was important for his government to boost domestic demand because people who are starving can not pay debts.
This is perhaps the biggest challenge facing Fernandez. He will have to sit down with private creditors and, above all, the representatives of the International Monetary Fund to negotiate a restructuring of the immense public debt.
- In 2017, Macri had raised a record US $ 57 billion loan from the IMF.
- The first repayment will be due in the spring of next year.
- Fernandez had last repeatedly stated that under the given conditions it would be impossible to raise the required US $ 5.4 billion by then.
Although Fernandez is considered a man with a certain negotiating skills, the discussions are likely to be complicated. The creditors will insist that he does not increase the spending of the state as announced, but rather drastically lowers.
Fernandez - moderate on the left and a little less aflame
Experienced enough for the post is Fernandez. At the beginning of the millennium, he had served as President-in-Office of Nestor Kirchner as Chief of Staff. He also held this position for one and a half years under Kirchner's wife Cristina, before turning away from her in the dispute over her populist economic policy and until her peace agreement this spring was one of her sharpest critics.
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Fernandez, who also continued his criminal law lectures at the University of Buenos Aires during the election campaign, is regarded as a moderate linker, who inter alia advocates to decriminalize abortions against the will of the Catholic Church, which is traditionally powerful in Argentina.
Is there a conflict with Brazil's President Bolsonaro?
Another flank with potential for conflict is Argentina's relations with its big neighbor Brazil, where Jair Bolsonaro, an ultra-right-wing president since January, whom Fernandez calls a "racist" and "misanthrope".
In the event that Fernandez intended to foreclose his economy with protectionist measures such as in the Kirchner era, Bolsonaro threatened to exclude Argentina from the Mercosur economic union.
Now that the election campaign is over, both countries are likely to find a more pragmatic tone. Both Fernandez and Bolsonaro know that their close-knit economies need each other in the crisis.
Latin America is in crisis mode - many tasks for Fernandez
The election in Argentina falls in a week in which other countries in the region are shaken by serious uprisings. In Chile's capital, Santiago alone, more than a million people were protesting against the consequences of the neoliberal policies of President Sebastian Pinera on Saturday.
In Argentina, analysts believe, the election has channeled the anger of the citizens in recent weeks. Fernandez is now resting hopes that his policies will lead to a fairer distribution. The question is how much leeway he can fight for.
