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Podcast "Voices": fight for the SPD presidency - finally it starts right

2019-10-31T17:52:44.936Z


The SPD goes into the runoff election. Why the duel Geywitz / Scholz against Esken / Borjans confrontation will offer and could be very nasty, explain Christoph Hickmann and Veit Medick in the new podcast.



Vote # 119 SPD runoff election: finally confrontation?

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Only about half of the party members participated in the SPD member vote. The SPD wanted in search of their new leadership team out of the back rooms, ran to the base. Why is that and what is going to happen, what must happen differently in the ballot now?

"So far, it was a race next to each other, now it will go into a confrontation," says Christoph Hickmann . With him and Veit Medick we discuss in the new episode of our policy podcast about the upcoming duel between Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz against Walter Borjans and Saskia Esken. Who has what opportunities? And what does the candidate constellation mean for the continuation of the grand coalition?

The podcast as a text to read

You want to read what's said in the podcast? Then you are right here.

The complete transcript

[00:00:09] Yasemin Yüksel Welcome to Stimmenfang, the political podcast from SPIEGEL. The search for the new SPD leadership continues. After the member survey has not brought a clear result, now two candidates have couples in the runoff. How confrontational is this duel Scholz / Geywitz against Borjans / Esken? Who has what opportunities? And how does it all affect the already rather shaky coalition peace? That is our topic today when it comes to casting votes. And I can talk about it with my two colleagues Christoph Hickmann and Veit Medick. Nice that you are there, hello.

[00:00:37] Veit Medick Hello.

[00:00:37] Christoph Hickmann Hello.

[00:00:38] Yasemin Yüksel At the very beginning: The participation in this membership poll in the SPD, which was not too high. 53 percent of the members participated at all. That's not too many. Is the SPD members more or less caring who is leading the party?

[00:00:52] Veit Medick To be honest, I do not think it's that low. 53 percent is somehow still a bit more than half. And you have to keep in mind that this was the first round - there were six couples, at times seven couples, on stage. Maybe many of them did not know, who should I vote for, not all of them were good, and the voice counts a bit more in the second round. It really depends on that. That's why I expect that the participation also increases a bit.

[00:01:18] Yasemin Yüksel Christoph, you just shook your head a bit when Veit said: The participation is not that bad. Do you see that differently?

[00:01:25] Christoph Hickmann Of course everything is completely right, what Veit says. I just think that we already have a bit of the inner view of the Berlin business. I believe that if you look at it from the outside, then in the past few weeks and months there has been a huge gallop.

[00:01:38] Lars Klingbeil (SPD) We are proud that we have succeeded in showing what the SPD is passionate about. At 23 regional conferences, we have managed to put forward programmatic and strategic issues. We showed a positive, another SPD and again a big thank you.

[00:01:54] Christoph Hickmann Again and again candidates have introduced themselves. Say, what was perceived mainly in the wider public by the SPD, was this selection process, this gigantic selection process with great organizational effort. And then there come out in the end 53 percent who only participate. I think that this is strange for many people out there and reinforces the feeling: Look, not even they are interested in their own party.

[00:02:20] Yasemin Yüksel If one then remembers that the SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil, whom we had already heard - he had praised the whole time about this procedure, ie this member survey.

[00:02:31] Lars Klingbeil (SPD) We deliberately promoted this new path. We have said that we will not decide in the Willy Brandt House who will lead the party in the future. Somewhere two, three people, in the back room, thinking about who in future can hold the party chairmanship.

[00:02:43] Yasemin Yüksel That means, they had been set on the idea that there might be such a bit of vitalizing effect going through the party. But somehow it seems like a mess. Why is that? Has one miscalculated?

[00:02:54] Veit Medick I have to disagree again because I think we might look a bit too much on the glasses of the politicians. And we somehow believe that every member of the SPD somehow ticks like us and has to be electrified, what's going on and how it ends. It's not like this. That has never been so in parties. If you look at the membership structure of the SPD, 30 percent - I checked the other day - 30 percent of the SPD members are older than 70 years old! If you put yourself in such a member - sometimes 80 years old - they have other things to do, their lives to organize and they have to go to the post office and submit their postal ballot papers and so on. That's a bit of a hassle. That's why I think you can talk about a mobilization effect in just over half of those who participate. And I would just wait for the second round and see how it will work. If it goes down, that would be a bad sign, because that would be the sign: We do not really trust any of the two teams somehow. There must already be a certain, polarized duel situation there must also increase a bit the participation.

[00:04:01] Yasemin Yüksel Nevertheless, I have in mind: On Saturday, when the votes were counted by the SPD treasurer - that had already such an appearance of such an administrative act. But maybe I will look at it with a critical eye.

[00:04:12] Dietmar Nietan (SPD) Since none of the candidate teams has achieved the required absolute majority of valid votes, according to Section 13 of the Procedural Guidelines for Conducting the Membership Survey, a second vote is between Klara Geywitz and Olaf Scholz on one side, and Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans on the other, necessary.

[00:04:32] Christoph Hickmann I think that must have the appearance of an administrative wing. Even when he read it then, the result, notarized. Otherwise it is of course not legally secure. There have always been attempts to doubt this procedure. Especially the online participation. I would like to go back to Veit anyway. I think, then maybe one would have to think in a different direction and consider whether the thesis that we - you have said, we politicians - is so happy to base, namely the basis of parties wants to be more involved and more involved, the famous backroom decision must be abolished - maybe it's different. Maybe a lot of the base is looking for leadership and says: We really want you to decide, that's why we chose you. Perhaps a party congress would have been enough to make that up among themselves. One could have saved a million euros and a whole set of organizational effort.

[00:05:23] Yasemin Yüksel Instead, however, the party has chosen this complicated and protracted procedure. And now we are facing a runoff election. In fact, Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz as a duo and Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans as the second duo will go into a second round and that will be at the end of November. Both of you, say something to those two duos who are now meeting. And what will change now in the runoff election?

[00:05:46] Christoph Hickmann Then I'll start with Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz, who have a little bit the stamp of "keep it up" on their foreheads. Olaf Scholz is, if I remember correctly, for a decade as deputy SPD chairman. So he has to all major decisions that have undoubtedly contributed to the current decline - there he was behind it. He was there. He was involved. He carried it all along. That is, the question that is raised against him is, of course, what exactly should change now, when you are chairman?

[00:06:19] SPD member at regional conference Olaf, how can anyone credibly explain to anyone that the one who ultimately led us - also significantly involved in function - into this valley of tears, into those lowlands of today's results stands for credibility and social justice in the SPD today and in the future? Since I have an explanation problem!

[00:06:39] Christoph Hickmann Klara Geywitz, his partner, is a new face in federal politics; However, is also a long time in politics, was longer in Brandenburg Member of Parliament, was Secretary General of the local SPD. I would say, even with her, you can say, professional politician.

[00:06:58] Klara Geywitz (SPD) Olaf and I, we are a team from East and West because, dear comrades, the SPD must never let it fall to the AfD in the East. We have to get this right back from the parliaments and for that we have to make the East-SPD strong. Thank you very much.

[00:07:12] Christoph Hickmann And someone who does not stand for the disruptive, for the revolution, for the radically new, but actually for continuity. And the two of them have - and it goes without saying - very clearly - which means quite clearly - unequivocally in favor of remaining in the Grand Coalition.

[00:07:31] Yasemin Yüksel Anders, Veit, it looks like the duo Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans - called NoWaBo, I have learned now. Since at least Saskia Esken has said several times, including at the last regional conference in Munich, decidedly:

[00:07:45] Saskia Esken (SPD) And the Union says the distribution question does not arise. And that's why we say: Groko does not build a fair future. The GroKo has no future. We have to get out of there - but with a plan.

[00:07:58] Yasemin Yüksel Veit, tell a little something. Who is this duo? Which profile do you use in this runoff?

[00:08:04] Veit Medick The two of them try to stage themselves a bit as the opposite duo to Scholz and Geywitz in very different political fields. Whether this is the social policy now, where they plead for the softer approach, away from Hartz IV, away from sanctions. Whether this is fiscal policy, where they say: no black zero. Whether this is the strengthening of the municipalities:

[00:08:23] Norbert Walter-Borjans (SPD) I've always said in the 22 events, that's like a big bus of the SPD - on the front: social justice and future. The bus is now almost empty. People do not ride because they do not believe we're going there. And that has to do with the fact that in the past we have fallen for consultants and lobbyists who have led us away to the neo-liberal pampas.

[00:08:47] Veit Medick Where they say we want to do something different than Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz. And we want to break with the previous approach of the SPD and set up the SPD left, maybe a little more radical. But I think the point Grand Coalition is a total Achilles heel for the two of them, because they do not even seem to know how they really want to act. So Mrs. Esken intones the much more skeptical, much more critical, as far as the GroKo is concerned. Walter Borjans is a bit more careful. He probably also realizes that they are riding on this No-GroKo wave and driving on this ticket. But when they are elected, they face the difficulty of having to answer the question of whether or not they really go out there. You can not really say, no, we stay in there. But just go out there, could end up in disaster for the SPD. This is a total dilemma the two are heading for. And that, I think, will be pretty exciting to watch in the next few weeks, as they figure this out because of their position.

[00:09:46] Yasemin Yüksel So, you're assuming that the confrontation will increase in some tension or drama over the next few weeks until this runoff is over?

[00:09:53] Veit Medick I think so, because of course the congress is also coming up in early December, where the central issue will be this question. It is still not clear whether there will be a formal vote on yes or no Grand Coalition or just supplementary projects for the coalition agreement. But I believe that this will be a major conflict and a point of conflict, which of course does not depend entirely on the SPD, of course, but what is happening in the Union, of course, is also very interesting. There is, I would say, a blockade attitude, as far as the basic pension plans of the SPD. And that is a very important issue for the Social Democrats, if that does not come - this topic before the congress - could of course also once again move in the direction of "we want to get out of this coalition".

[00:10:40] Yasemin Yüksel These consequences for the Grand Coalition and the topic of basic pensions, all this, will definitely be on top of it. I would like to stay briefly with Olaf Scholz, because he was considered a favorite. Why, Christoph? Only because he is known? Or what qualities does he bring?

[00:10:56] Christoph Hickmann His youthfulness.

[00:10:58] Yasemin Yüksel His youthfulness? You surprise me Christoph!

[00:10:59] Christoph Hickmann In fact, it's only half funny. In fact, I find it a funny footnote that Scholz and Geywitz are the younger duo compared to Walter Borjans and Esken, who are considered, let's say, the renewal duo. So I think Walter Borjans is 67, Olaf Scholz 61 something like that. There are still a few years in between. But that is meant rather jokingly. What Olaf Scholz really can play with what he should and must play, if he wants to have a chance, is the chancellor candidate card. After all, it's not just about determining an SPD leader, but also about the perspective: what's next for the next election? So, and if you then imagine Norbert Walter-Borjans or Saskia Esken compete against Robert Habeck, Friedrich Merz, Armin Laschet or perhaps Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. This will be hard for most SPD members to imagine, I would imply. The vice-chancellor, finance minister and former mayor of Hamburg are probably more likely to oppose it. That's what Olaf Scholz has to play in this race, I think.

[00:12:12] Veit Medick I agree with your thesis that he has to play it - I'm very skeptical if that would be useful, because it was obvious in the first round that Olaf Scholz just did not mobilize. He is not a political leader who mobilized in the SPD. And of course that's a huge problem at a time when, as you've seen in the state elections, for example, the person becomes more and more important for election campaigns and for the success and failure of parties. And if the SPD then starts with someone who is so half-liked in the SPD and all of whom say: Yes, yes, that may somehow Chancellor, but what exactly should be here now social-democratic, we can not say is that potentially very dangerous?

[00:12:56] Christoph Hickmann I would say something against it. You say Olaf Scholz did not mobilize. I would hold against it. I find it totally amazing that he was in first place, because there was always this Scholz bashing at every regional conference. Say: There was already a movement "Not Olaf! All against Olaf". The fact that he nevertheless, albeit scarce, has claimed in the first place shows for me: There is still a solid basis on which he can still build in the party.

[00:13:18] Veit Medick At the Regional Conferences, the mood was like this, yes, but if you look at the basic structure of the SPD membership and so on, that's usually a bit more pragmatic than we politicians often also think like that. That was the case with the Grand Coalition decisions in 2013 and 2017 or 2018 - and that's just the way it is now. But I would have thought, so to speak, he has bigger stages than any other competitor, he is Federal Finance Minister, he is Vice Chancellor, he is the most prominent figure in this race. And that's just barely manages to land in front of a duo, which basically, hardly anyone knows outside of the SPD - not even within the SPD knows everyone - I find amazing. That also says something about his standing.

[00:14:00] Christoph Hickmann Another antithesis: He made it, even though the two largest member associations of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony, each with the largest membership, nominated two other duos. Sorry, the man is from Hamburg, who has no regional power.

[00:14:14] Veit Medick Yes, only, Walter Borjans is not the candidate of the North Rhine-Westphalian Landessverband ...

[00:14:18] Christoph Hickmann vote by the state committee.

[00:14:20] Veit Medick Right, but ...

[00:14:20] Christoph Hickmann Of course that has a certain appeal.

[00:14:21] Veit Medick Which national association? There are at least two or three state associations in this country.

[00:14:26] Christoph Hickmann If you have a third of NRW, you still have a lot of wood anyway.

[00:14:30] Veit Medick That's right.

[00:14:31] Yasemin Yüksel So you two are not in agreement on the question anyway. I find that very interesting. I have another consideration to Olaf Scholz: What is actually the fact that there is a flaw in his candidacy? Because in early June, he was on the show with Anne Will, and at that time he categorically ruled out to compete at all.

[00:14:50] Olaf Scholz (SPD) That would be totally inappropriate if I were to do that as Vice-Chancellor and Federal Minister of Finance. Time does not work at all. This is not synonymous with a normal party chairmanship to connect. But of course that would be a phase in which it certainly can not work. That's why we focused on thinking from the outset: how can you organize that to work? Anyway, I immediately excluded this variant for me.

[00:15:14] Yasemin Yüksel How much does such a statement weigh on you today?

[00:15:17] Veit Medick I think that does not burden him at all. I would not blame him for that, because, that's really not amusement tax, to apply for an SPD presidency. That's almost a victim, he goes there.

[00:15:28] Yasemin Yüksel Today, but we remember Mr Müntefering:

[00:15:29] Franz Müntefering (SPD) The most beautiful office next to Pope - to be chairman of the SPD.

[00:15:34] Veit Medick There the SPD was still at 30, 35 percent. That's another situation. I think he has another flaw rather. That is - as far as his style of politics is concerned - he stands for what is extremely unpopular in the SPD. The compromise-oriented, cautious, pragmatic approach to politics, the government-fixed policy model.

[00:15:59] Olaf Scholz (SPD) We are applying for the presidency of the SPD because we want it to get more support, that it gets more support from the citizens in Germany and that we as a strong party can also lead government. That's what it's all about, and that will be central to future debates.

[00:16:15] Veit Medick Which, of course, always ensures a certain lack of recognition of the social democratic program. In a time when you have to show who you exactly are, what you stand for, that you have to be clearly recognizable, that's not without danger. And that could of course also have a negative impact in the coming weeks - especially with Walter Borjans and Esken two people standing there, who say simply: Oh, we still have no responsibility. Let's just say what we think and formulate more clearly. We have no governmental responsibility here and we can now also say: we want to somehow wealth tax, we want to present no black zero and a more radical programmatic, almost a kind of vision. Although that is a bit naïve, of course, because they are not responsible. Then you can finally say everything.

[00:17:01] Christoph Hickmann I think that's true, what you're saying. There is this longing for the famous utopian surplus that the SPD has not had for a long time. Nevertheless, it will be more difficult for Esken and Walter-Borjans in the coming weeks, I think. Because so far that was a race next to each other. Each couple has run a little for themselves. It has also refrained from attacking and leveraging each other. Now the whole thing will go into a confrontation and, of course, the closer they are to the election day of the runoff, everything they say will automatically be subjected to the reality check. What does that mean? People start to deal with it, to argue: what are they doing when they get it now? What does this mean for us? For the party? For the government? All these questions will become much clearer now.

[00:17:49] Yasemin Yüksel More confrontation you say, Christoph. Veit, as a former US correspondent, do you really think we're going to experience anything that might remind us of the temperament of US primaries?

[00:18:01] Veit Medick Here, too, I would be a bit cautious, because the SPD, of course, has little experience with such primaries - the German policy overall little experience. And I do not expect now that these two duos are slaughtering themselves on the open stage, so to speak, but of course this will continue to be a relatively cautious palpation. I can hardly imagine that when they get together on a stage, they really attack each other or get their hands on each other, as is the rule in American primaries. America has a presidential system. Of course, it is much more important to the individual political actors and to the candidates - and much less to the parties. Here the party is still the most important form of organization in the political system. And if you keep in mind that the two are now competing against each other, but if they were going to "slaughter" each other, of course, it would be harder, harder, to hold this party together, and keep those two camps together , That's why I assume that in the next few weeks they will also exercise some caution, so as not to fall into the trap, as they have to somehow bridge a split.

[00:19:07] Yasemin Yüksel ... because those who win now - a) must win, but b) when they hold the leadership, yes, the party behind them will have to congregate. And that sometimes does not work so well, you can see, I think, especially with the CDU. AKK prevailed and left Friedrich Merz and Jens Spahn behind. I do not think you can claim that you have no critics in your own party right now. Christoph, you wanted to say something right now.

[00:19:32] Christoph Hickmann I see your last point exactly the same. So you show how it should not work. To Veit's second point: You say you doubt that they are slaughtering on the open stage. I also believe that it will not happen. But what will increase in the next few weeks is a bit - I would call it - the game of the backers. Well, I think the famous environments will now start to get things going, of course, trying to make journalists look in one direction. For example, we already saw that last night. That's where it started. A poster from Hamburg was not quite viral in the social media, but that has often been shared, where Norbert Walter-Borjans obviously wants to perform at an event of the left at the end of this week. Now you could say: well, well, Kevin Kühnert has also appeared on the left. But this is of course being put into position as ammunition against him. I think such things, such as the little nasty things behind, will increase significantly in the coming weeks.

[00:20:42] Yasemin Yüksel Let's look at the consequences of this upcoming ballot for the Grand Coalition. What does it look like there?

[00:20:49] Veit Medick My gut feeling is that this Grand Coalition holds, for different reasons. I was already more skeptical. In fact, I also think that this coalition must end because there were too many grand coalitions, because somehow it no longer fits in the right time and because it strengthens the margins - for different reasons. I still think she could hold. That she might even be more stable than you think, because it's already been two years and it's not really worth stopping now. The next election campaign will start at the end of next year. Now you can continue to govern for a few months. Germany has the EU Presidency next year. This is already an important date, of course, for Merkel again. They will do their utmost to stabilize this coalition. Of course, the SPD also has a certain amount of panic about it. What happens when we get off? Then there will probably be new elections. Alternative would be that the Union makes a minority government. But let's say that there are new elections, that would be totally unpredictable for the SPD and could potentially end in disaster. That means: I do not really assume it because of course there are many unknown variables there as well. Once: How do you continue on big topics, for example, in the land rent? It really has to be tied up before the party congress, in order to be able to signal the SPD as well: Look, the grand coalition is well worth it. Olaf Scholz or whoever has to have something in the package.

[00:22:15] Yasemin Yüksel And, yes, basic rent - if I can get into that, because the topics are always not as easy as it seems at first glance - the basic pension is in the coalition agreement. That means that the two government partners Union and SPD have agreed on this. The sticking point is now that in this coalition contract just synonymous drinsteht: The comes, but with a so-called means test. And that's not what the SPD wants. And that's where the argument started. The SPD has a great interest in it - you said - to get it. With which leadership duo would increase the chance to get through the basic pension to convince the coalition partner Union: Yes, okay, SPD, we do the favor now. We now take a step towards you. Is there a team that would have a better chance here?

[00:23:05] Christoph Hickmann Until recently I would always have said, qua experience, the negotiating professional Olaf Scholz. But I think you have to turn that around a bit. Veit has just said, with parts of the Union one has the impression that now actually want to block, they do not want that anymore. And they always have to think along with who they are actually strengthening tactically. That means, if now Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz should prevail, it will have the declared GroKo advocate Olaf Scholz at a party congress but damn hard, if until then the basic pension is not through and if the Union blocks it. And I would think so - with a very low probability - but I would even consider it possible that even an Olaf Scholz comes to the conclusion: Guys, I do not see that this has any purpose. I'm not so sure if there's any need for negotiating skills or whether it's not about completely different factors.

[00:24:03] Yasemin Yüksel So that would mean from the CDU / CSU point of view: One would have to give the Grundrente to the SPD in terms of their concessions, so that one does not end up there and realize: Okay, we will get to this point disagree and at the point now really separate the ways.

[00:24:18] Christoph Hickmann If the Union wants to continue this coalition and wants someone at the top who stands for it, then at least it would have to enable a face-saving solution.

[00:24:28] Veit Medick Of course, the SPD has a problem: In its plans, it has gone far beyond the coalition agreement. The coalition agreement states that this basic pension, as you said, comes with a means test. And now the SPD argues that the pension system somehow does not work anyway, and so on, but it's a rather complex, difficult argument. The fact is that this is in the coalition contract. At the same time you have on Union side the mixed situation that of course, have also looked at the balance of the Grand Coalition.What has actually happened in the last two years, and there is a clear preponderance of SPD projects that have been enforced. And that provides a little bit of a natural feeling for the Union: Hey, we can not do that again on such a topic, where we really have problems, even giving the SPD more than the coalition agreement. And that's why I think that could be a real sticking point, where it's not just about small pension policy subtleties, but about the big question: who has the hat in this coalition here? Who is actually a chef and who is a waiter?

[00:25:34] Christoph Hickmann And then the one who - you just mentioned it yourself - plays the power struggle inside the Union.

[00:25:43] Veit Medick Total.

[00:25:43] Christoph Hickmann Where, after the Thuringian election result, quite different fronts are opened again. This is actually in both parties and in the coalition just one, I think, not very clear mixed situation.

[00:25:54] Yasemin Yüksel That means, at the latest after the two party congresses - the CDU in late November and the SPD in early December - I would suggest, let's talk again. Until then, thank you for today, Veit, Christoph. Thank you very much.

[00:26:07] That was votes. The next episode will be available as usual from next Thursday on spiegel.de, Spotify or in all common podcast apps. As always we are curious about your feedback. For example, you can send us an e-mail to stimmfang@spiegel.de. Or talk to our voice mailbox 040 380 80 400. This episode was produced by Matthias Kirsch and me, Yasemin Yüksel. Thanks for the support to Philipp Fackler, Sebastian Fischer, Johannes Kückens, Wiebke Rasmussen and Matthias Streitz. The vocal music comes as always from Davide Russo.

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Source: spiegel

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