US exit from climate agreement: What happens now with the Paris Agreement

Two years ago, Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. On Tuesday, the US President took this step now at the earliest possible date formally.

As the deal is administered by the United Nations, Trump wrote to UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday to inform him of his intentions. US withdrawal date from the contract is now November 4, 2020.

In December 2015, the participants in the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris agreed on binding climate protection goals. Among other things, governments decided to limit the rise in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times. After ratification by much of the world community, including the US, the agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016.

Why does the withdrawal last a full year - and what happens in the meantime?

The procedure is specified in the agreement: If a country announces its withdrawal, it will take another year to complete it. In the meantime, Donald Trump will have to stand for election and his climate policy, as the next presidential elections in the US are scheduled to take place on November 3, just one day before leaving.

Most US Democratic candidates announce more climate-friendly policies. If they prevail in the election against Trump or another Republican candidate, they could again commit themselves to the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

What are the international reactions?

With the withdrawal, the US international outsiders. After leaving, they would be the only state in the UN that is not part of the agreement. Other countries announced resolute reactions.

According to the Élysée Palace in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will sign a pact on Wednesday in Beijing confirming the "irreversibility" of the agreement.

The German government regrets the withdrawal of the Americans. However, Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze also said Tuesday that Donald Trump's move was no longer a surprise.

How do states react in the US - and do they have room to maneuver?

The US is a federal state, and not only the government in Washington decides on climate policy. More and more states, which are led by a democratic government, therefore decide on their own climate protection programs.

California, Colorado, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Washington and other states have enacted laws aimed at producing 100 percent fossil fuel-free energy by 2050. In addition, regulations for energy-efficient construction are enacted and electric mobility promoted.

However, combined, these states account for only one-third of US emissions. But experts point out the signal function. Taken alone, California and New York are the fifth and eleventh largest economies in the world. Their climate neutrality decisions increase the demand for electric cars or more efficient heating pumps, which in turn drives corporate incentives.

What does the American withdrawal mean for the Paris Agreement?

The US exit formally poses no problem for the agreement. Already at the 2017 G20 summit in Hamburg, many heads of state said that the Paris Agreement was "irreversible." Since then many states have formulated more ambitious climate protection goals.

However, if the US, as one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases, remains committed to abandoning the goals of the Paris Agreement, it will be difficult to achieve the 1.5 degree target globally.