In April, Pablo Casado seemed politically disposed. He won in the election as the leading candidate of the conservative Partido Popular (PP) just 16.7 percent. Only 66 PP MPs moved into the Madrid Parliament, barely half as many as before.
Seven months later, Casado still has a chance to become Spain's new head of government. Demoscopes no longer believe it is impossible for a center-right coalition to gain an absolute majority.
Casado owes its sudden strength to the mistakes of its opponents. Premier Pedro Sánchez failed to form a government following his electoral victory. He did not want to take Podemos' left-wing populists to the Cabinet on their terms. And the liberals had refused to tolerate a socialist minority government.
Casado has learned from his own mistakes. For a long time he gave the agitator. He cursed Sánchez as a "traitor," "rogue," "illegal occupier of the government office." He railed against irregular immigration and announced that he was limiting abortion rights. Moderate voters scared this off.
Now Casado makes statesman. He tempered his choice of words. In the spring he wanted to prevent voters to overflow to Vox, now he advertises for the clientele of the Liberals (Ciudadanos), to boy and women. The PP boss feel much better in his new role, say confidants.
Casado, 38, grew up as the son of a doctor and a teacher in Castile. He moved to Madrid to study law. At age 22, he joined the PP, whose local youth organization he led. The head of the regional government, Esperanza Aguirre, brought him in 2007 as spokesman for the commissions for Justice, Administration and Budget in the Chamber of Deputies. "He's my creature, very liberal, a crack," she said.
Casado benefited from powerful sponsors. Former party leader José María Aznar made him his cabinet chief in 2009, and his successor, Mariano Rajoy, paved the way for him and appointed him deputy press secretary. While the PP sank into corruption, Casado made a name for himself as a fearless fighter against the socialist opposition.
It could hardly be better for Casado
When Rajoy resigned from office in June 2018 following a lost vote of no confidence in parliament, Casado inherited him as PP chief. Although he is young, but "he represents the best of the old, honest PP," says Aznar's long-time collaborator Gabriel Elorriaga.
After the election debacle in April, Casado now gets a second chance. The repetition is a "gift," admits one of his closest advisers.
At the moment it could hardly be better for Casado. Premier Sánchez believed that his Socialists would benefit from the new election. But now it looks like a number of PSOE supporters could stay home due to disappointment over the political blockade. With Más País, a split from Podemos, also another party fights for votes from the left camp.
Javier Barbancho / REUTERS
Pedro Sanchez at a campaign event
The developments in Catalonia also benefit the conservatives. Since the Supreme Court handed down long-term prison sentences against Catalan separatist leaders in mid-October, Barcelona has had its youth battles with the security forces almost every night.
Casado casts doubt on Sánchez's crisis management. The PM should finally withdraw the command of the regional police, the Mossos d'Esquadra, from the Catalan government, demands the PP chairman. The socialist does not want to escalate the conflict. He depends on the votes from Catalonia. While Sánchez sets on relaxation and wants to reform the Spanish state to federalism on the German model, the right moves a confrontation course. If she came to power, she would recentralize.
PP - a party of the province
Meanwhile, Casado is working on its image as a promoter of tradition. More than half of the PP voters are older than 60 years. The party is strong, especially in the province. The citizens there like that Casado has two small children and goes to church on Sundays.
Casado wants to chase away the Liberals. Ciudadanos has recently moved to the right, which is why prominent members have left the party. Polls predict heavy losses.
His economic competence also emphasizes Casado. He has brought back financial specialists of the predecessors. "Spain needs the People's Party in the government to prevent a new economic crisis," he says. He wants to stimulate the economy by lowering the maximum income tax rate to 40, cutting corporate tax to 20 percent, and completely abolishing inheritance tax.
Casado plays a double game: he holds back with provocative statements, now avoids common appearances with ultra rights. This could mobilize leftists again. At the same time he knows that he needs the support of Vox, he ever wants to become head of government.