After all, the prime minister has realized what is fundamentally wrong in his country. "We have to end the blockade," Pedro Sánchez recently demanded in the last major election debate. This blockade is "the fundamental political problem of Spain." After the election, the period of "provisionality" must end. Then the nation would finally need a viable government.
But she will hardly get it. Also because of Pedro Sánchez.
On Sunday, the Spaniards are again to vote for their national parliament - for the fourth time in less than four years. And everything indicates that a stalemate comes out again in the fourth attempt.
That neither the left nor the right-wing parties win a majority of the seats. That the mutual blockade continues - and with it the political stalemate. It will be borne by the citizens. But these citizens can not decide either side:
- According to a recent poll for the newspaper El País, on Sunday 44 percent of voters want to vote for Sánchez's Social Democrats, the left-wing alternative Unidos Podemos or the Podemos spin-off Más País.
- And 43 percent for one of the three right-wing parties.
- The rest is likely to be chosen by Catalan or Basque nationalists.
At the last election in April, the vote was left to right: 11.26 to 11.21 million. Sitting in parliament, the left was a clear overweight. Because the strongest party in the Spanish electoral system often gets disproportionately many mandates.
"Our society is very polarized"
At that time, Sánchez had the opportunity to form a government: along with the links alternatives, tolerated by some regional parties. But he did not want a coalition with Podemos. And Podemos just wanted to raise him to power as a coalition partner. Result: new elections.
"Our society is very polarized," says Spanish political scientist Guillem Vidal of the Berlin Social Science Research Center. "Few voters switch back and forth between the blocks." And: The party system splinters even faster than in other European countries. In 2008, the Social Democrats and the right-wing conservative PP together held together 84 percent of the vote. In April 2019 it was only 45 percent.
One of the new parties could have given Spain a stable government. The Citizen Party of Ciudadanos was once a liberal, independent force. Under party leader Albert Rivera, who himself wants to become a prime minister, she beat a few months ago to the right block. Rivera is now more willing to pact with the right-wing radicals than to enter into an alliance with the Social Democrats.
Not a single coalition government at national level has gotten Spain's parties in more than 40 years since the restoration of democracy.
"Distrust", "boredom", "indifference"
The coalition and compromise of politicians is frustrating citizens. Recently, opinion polling agency CIS asked what sentiments politics create among Spaniards. "Distrust" was the top response with 34 percent, then "boredom" (16 percent) and "indifference" (13 percent). Only in fourth place was "interest" (12 percent), closely followed by "irritation".
Parties in Spain
Partido Popular (PP) - "People's Party"
Orientation: conservative, Christian Democrat
Chairman: Pablo Casado
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) - "Spanish Socialist Workers' Party"
Orientation: Social Democratic
Chairman: Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón
Izquierda Unida (IU) - "United Left"
Orientation: left-socialist party network
Chairman: Alberto Garzón
Podemos - "We can do it"
Orientation: left populist
Chairman: Pablo Iglesias Turrión
Unión Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) - "Union Progress and Democracy"
Orientation: centrist-liberal
Chairman: Cristiano Brown
Ciudadanos - Partido de la Ciudadania (C's) - "Citizens - Party of Citizenship"
Orientation: liberal
Chairman: Albert Rivera
Foro de Ciudadanos (FAC) - "Citizens' Forum"
Orientation: conservative
Chair: Cristina Coto
VOX - "voice"
Orientation: right-hand radical
Chair: Santiago Abascal
After all, the political stalemate is also becoming increasingly noticeable in people's daily lives. "Spain has a number of serious problems," says Madrid political scientist Pablo Simón. "Unemployment and inequality are high, and there are major education deficits: more than a million young people have left school without a degree."
But basic labor market or education reforms, according to Simón, are barely enforceable without a stable governing majority. And Sánchez, with its social democratic minority government, has just over a third of parliamentarians behind it.
"Redial demobilizes voters"
It could be a little less after Sunday. "Redial demobilizes voters," says Simon. Many experts expect a slump in voter turnout; especially sympathizers of the left could stay at home. On the other hand, according to the surveys, the right-wing extremists should gain significantly. The Vox party benefits from the polarization of the rekindled Catalonia conflict and the political vacuum in Madrid.
Sánchez is already campaigning for the next provisional. If the parliament does not plan to form a government after election day, the PM said on Monday, then it should accept a government of the lists with the most votes. Even if Sánchez got away with it, it would be the same as before: a social democratic minority government without assertiveness, incapable of reform. It is unlikely to last more than a few months.
And then there would be new elections in Spain.