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Spain: What the parliamentary election is about

2019-11-10T06:07:56.541Z


Spain votes - for the fourth time in four years. The Catalonia issue divides the country, political deadlock threatens. This could benefit the right-wing party Vox.



Spain's highest right-wing radical knows exactly what the followers want to hear. If his party Vox wins the parliamentary election this Sunday, promises Santiago Abascal again and again, then he will be the first official act to arrest Quim Torra, the head of government of Catalonia. Abascal wants to prohibit parties who stand for the independence of the region, if he gets the shots. The fact that such measures violate the principles of the rule of law is not important to the 43-year-old.

Abascal is not yet in power yet. Vox is still the fifth largest faction in the Spanish parliament, with 24 mandates. But after the election on this Sunday, more ultra rights will move into the House of Representatives, probably much more. In the fourth general election within four years, Vox could become Spain's third largest political force. Up to 58 of the 350 seats predict her a poll from Friday.

It's going on, for Abascal and his party. Surveys have been going up for weeks. Several thousand people come to the big election campaign events. Since the death of dictator Franco in 1975, no right-wing extremist party of such masses has been on the streets of Spain. His fans clap and cheer Abascal on abortion, feminism, same-sex marriages or immigrants. Or if he raves about the "reconquista", the expulsion of Muslims in the Middle Ages from the Iberian Peninsula.

The parties at a glance

PSOE (Social Democrats)

Did Pedro Sánchez gamble? The 47-year-old dropped the option following his electoral victory in April, governing Spain with Podemos for four years, supported by several regional parties. But from the envisaged triumph in the new elections will probably nothing. The Social Democrats have to adjust to loss of votes.

Result April 2019: 28.7 percent, 123 seats

Unidos Podemos (left alternative)

Podemos boss Pablo Iglesias, 41, would like to have his alliance with Spain's new government - preferably with his partner Irene Montero as Deputy Prime Minister. The plan failed. Now for the links alternatives, it's all about losing as little terrain as possible. After an internal party dispute and the secession of "Más País" they must fear losses

Result April 2019: 14.3 percent, 42 seats

Más País (left alternative)

"To catch the disappointed progressives" is Íñigo Errejón's declared choice. He was once with Podemos, but was then disempowered by Pablo Iglesias. Errejón left - and founded "Más País". Recently, the popular Madrid ex-mayor Manuela Carmena also appeared at an alliance campaign. A few seats could win it.

Result April 2019: ---

PP (right-wing conservative)

After its catastrophic election defeat in April, the conservative People's Party is now feeling some new momentum. It too benefits from the polarization in Catalonia; their electorate rewards the harshness with which party leader Pablo Casado and other top executives want to act against the separatists - when they are in power. It will not be enough for the long-standing ruling party. Voice gains are likely.

Result April 2019: 16.7 percent, 66 seats

Ciudadanos (legal liberals)

After the April election, Albert Rivera saw his Citizens Party on its way to becoming the leading force in the center-right camp. In recent months, however, the Ciudadanos have crashed in the polls. The moderate voters displease Rivera's refusal to co-opt with the Social Democrats or at least to tolerate them as a ruling party. And many of the right-wing voters are leaving for the radical Vox. The Ciudadanos have to adjust to heavy losses.

Result April 2019: 15.9 percent, 57 seats

Vox (right-wing radicals)

0.2 percent in the previous election. 10.3 percent in the last election. And this time it could be more than 15 percent. The rise of Vox worries many Spaniards. But part of the electorate is electrified by the troupe under Santiago Abascal. And the moderate right-wing parties have little fear of contact. The PP and the Ciudadanos have already been raised by Vox in Andalusia to power.

Result April 2019: 10.9 percent, 24 seats

The regional parties

For the 40 of the 350 seats could get the regional parties in total. Most of them will be taken by the Catalan nationalists, especially the left republicans. The ERC (here parliamentary candidate Gabriel Rufian) was involved in the failed Declaration of Independence in 2017, but is now on a more moderate course. As a coalition partner she is out of the question for the big Spanish parties.

ERC earnings April 2019: 3.9 percent, 15 seats

But nothing brings Abascal beyond the hardcore voters as much popular as Catalonia. The escalation in Barcelona in mid-October, the videos of burning barricades and street battles between supporters of convicted Separatist leaders and police officers - they've pushed Vox into those voters who can not be tough enough on cracking down on the rebellious Catalans. Even if the situation on the ground has calmed down again.

"The polarization in Catalonia benefits the radical parties, especially Vox," says Guillem Vidal, a political scientist at the Berlin Social Science Research Center. And it harms Spain's Prime Minister.

Pedro Sánchez had knocked out a coalition government with the left-alternative Podemos after his election victory in April. And hoped for the new elections significant gains in votes. But it will probably be nothing. Since the Catalonia conflict has flared up again, the polls for Sánchez are downhill - which has proved more willing to compromise with the Catalans than its conservative predecessor Mariano Rajoy.

Nobody wants to be in power of the separatists

In addition, the inability of the political left to form a coalition government demobilize many of its sympathizers, the Madrid political scientist Pablo Simón says: "I expect a very low turnout."

Sanchez's Social Democrats are likely to be the strongest force in parliament again. But they will miss their own majority, even though Spain's electoral system often gives the largest party a disproportionate number of seats. It would be a surprise if any of the two major political currents were to win a majority of 176 seats.

Much indicates a stalemate. In the polls, the three left-wing parties and the three right-wing parties are on a par with each other, with about 43-44 percent each. And nobody wants to take power from Catalan or Basque separatists, who will take on a significant share of the remaining mandates.

In the end could come out again a weak minority government. Or the election number five since 2015. Santiago Abascal, both scenarios would probably not be wrong.

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2019-11-10

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