Spain after the election: Where the GroKo would be a redemption

After Sunday's general election, Pedro Sánchez of Spain's Socialist Workers' Party PSOE still has the most votes and seats - but he has lost. Because his calculation for the repetition of the election last April did not go: Instead of a clear majority to form a government, he now has 120 seats even less in the House of Representatives with 120, also his absolute majority in the Senate, the second chamber, there.

The left emerges weakened from this vote, the ultra right now represent the third strongest force. Also Sánchez 'direct opponent, the conservative People's Party leader Pablo Casado, could catch up. The liberal citizen party of Ciudadanos, however, in April alternative partner for a coalition government of the center, has shot itself offside. C's leader, Albert Rivera, who as vice-president could have helped shape the future of Spain, had led his party to the right about the unresolved issue of dealing with the Catalan separatists. On Monday he offered to resign after the right-wing Liberals lost 47 seats in parliament.

Podemos is playing high

In order for the Spaniards not to have to vote again in the next few months, it now requires insight and compromise ability in the parties. Sánchez called on electoral night all parties (except the ultra right of Vox) to "generosity and responsibility" on. Already in the coming days he wants to present to the individual groups offers that enable him to be elected prime minister. For this he needs in the first ballot the absolute majority of 176 of the 350 deputies, in the second ballot then passed more yes - as opposed votes.

Sánchez promised his constituents a "progressive government". So he could try to win the left-wing populist Podemos, who lost seven seats, and their secession from Más País for toleration - together they would be 38 MPs. But Podemos boss Pablo Iglesias, who in the summer with Sánchez 'offer of four ministerial offices was not satisfied, has clearly stated that he insists on a coalition and wants to sit in the cabinet himself. "Without skills you can not change anything," he said on Sunday - a rejection of the aspired to Sánchez minority government.

In addition, Sánchez would need anyway the approval of the seven deputies of the Basque moderate Nationalist Party (PNV). However, this is not economically in line with the course of the left-wing populists of Podemos and Más País, because the PNV represents the interests of the industrial and business elite in the north. Iglesias, however, wants to hard-tax the high-earners to finance a generous social policy.

Complicated Catalonia question

And even if Sánchez got the PNV votes - it would not be enough. In addition to a deputy from Cantabria and Galicia also the 13 deputies from the Republican Left ERC from Catalonia would have to vote for the PSOE government. By the beginning of October, the tough jail sentences for Catalan separatists had been revealed, but they had shown willingness to do so. But the mood among their supporters has since turned heavily against Madrid. For even the socialist Sánchez holds firmly to the Spanish Constitution, which does not allow a referendum on the independence of a region.

Jose Jordan / AFP

Conservative PP chief Casado: turning away from the hard right-wing

To make matters worse: For the first time, two radical separatists were elected by the CUP to parliament on Sunday. In order not to lose even more to this formation, which has in the past also approved the use of force, the ERC Sánchez can only help in the office of prime minister, if he pays for it: Required would probably not just a revision of the convictions of " Insurrection "condemned separatist leaders, but also a legal way to a referendum on the independence of Catalonia.

But the Spanish voters have not spoken out explicitly for this, they have decided by a large majority for the center. The PSOE's pragmatic middle-school course, which guarantees the constitutional order in Catalonia but wants to negotiate and work with those responsible there, has rewarded them with 28 percent of the vote and 120 seats in parliament.

A stable government that can survive for four years and that steers the country in which 15 percent unemployment prevails to reform would have to exist in a kind of grand coalition. Above all, it would have to agree on the basis of a new tax policy, because the EU defaults on debt should not be met with social cuts alone. Above all, it is important to stop the escalation in Catalonia.

Flirting with the right wing brings no luck

But there has never been such a pact across the borders of the political camps in Spain. Even 80 years after the end of the civil war, the ideological trenches are still deep. The normalization hoped by Sánchez by the exhumation and reburial of the bones of the dictator Franco from his magnificent mausoleum, has not set, on the contrary: the diehards helped the ultra-right Vox party to a rapid rise. They came on Sunday to 15.1 percent of the vote, it resembles Salvinis Lega in Italy and the AfD.

PP boss Pablo Casado had to learn that a flirtation with the outside right is the wrong way to go in April, when the Conservatives had to record the worst election result in their history. The move away from the right-hand shift brought Casado and his Partido Popular a gain of four percent (total: 20.8). However, in the Madrid City Hall, in the capital region and in Andalusia, the People's Party rules only thanks to these disreputable friends.

PP leaders have already ruled out a grand coalition with the PSOE. They have suggested that Pedro Sánchez should leave his place and not stand for prime minister again. No bill goes up. Because even if the Conservatives would just abstain in the second ballot, too many votes from the progressive camp and the more left-leaning regional parties would be expected to install a minority government for Sánchez.

That gives an idea of ​​which way the Spaniards are headed. Presumably, he will again lead to the ballot box.