New study on the Thuringia election: AfD strong especially in NPD strongholds

The pioneer for the success of the AfD in the Thuringian state elections was the NPD. To this realization comes a new study of the institute for democracy and civil society in Jena, which carries the title: "right-radical Landnahme - analysis of the AFD election success to the state election 2019 in the Thuringian municipalities". It will be published today and was before the SPIEGEL before.

The client is the Amadeu Antonio Foundation. The study analyzes the statistical factors influencing the preliminary election results of the AfD in all 664 municipalities of the Free State of Thuringia. "There, where already in the state parliament election in 2014, an increased climate of democracy and extreme right-wing normalization existed, the long-term seed was prepared, which can now reap the AfD," write the scientists. The AfD was able to do well, especially where the NPD was strong before.

State election Thuringia 2019

Final result

Second vote result

Shares in percent

CDU

21.7

-11.8

The left

31

+2.8

SPD

8.2

-4.2

AFD

23.4

+12.8

green

5.2

-0.5

FDP

5

+2.5

other

5.5

-1.6

allocation of seats

Total: 90

Majority: 46 seats

29

8th

5

5

21

22

The Left (29)

SPD (8)

Green (5)

FDP (5)

CDU (21)

AfD (22)

Source: Provincial Returning Officer

Results in detail

"The AfD benefits in the places where the political alienation and apathy have already advanced," says co-author of the study, Axel Salheiser, the SPIEGEL. He warns that long-term closed right-wing spaces could form.

"Suspended" thesis can not be confirmed

Further, the study confirmed some assumptions that have already been explored. For example, that AfD voters are not economically worse off (read an interview here). Decisive is rather the demographics in the places. "In regions with a higher proportion of women or with a high proportion of people over the age of 65, the AfD scored lower votes," the study says. Above all, the AfD benefited from the increased turnout.

The greatest threat to liberal democracy is based on "the normalization of actors and positions of the radical and populist right", writes the researcher Matthias Quent. "Considerations to ennoble the AfD in Thuringia to the majority funder or even coalition partner, are a setback for the democratic majority in Thuringia, the right-wing radicals reject positions." In the past week, some CDU politicians in Thuringia had demanded to talk to the AfD. Within the federal CDU and in their own national association there was considerable criticism of the thrust.