District 18 News
Written by: Liao Junsheng
2019-11-22 08:00
Last updated date: 2019-11-22 08:00The polling day of the District Councils Election will be held on the 24th of this month (November). The EAC will make proposals on the electoral constituency boundary at the beginning of the year to amend the boundary of the 123 electoral districts. There are many (ie, 109) and it is proposed to add a total of 21 elected seats to the 10 District Councils in the 6th District Council.
New regions and voters will join the constituency and candidates may have to develop new electoral strategies. What is the impact of this re-demarcation on the election of the District Council?
Jerry is from the American constituency. (data picture)
The "Jerry" phenomenon comes from the US election
The EAC has revised the boundaries of a total of 123 constituencies for this District Council election. How does the electoral division affect the election? There is a term in the United States called "Jerry", which means that the ruling party uses the distribution of residents and regional characteristics to draw out constituencies and maximize the interests of political parties. In the elections of countries such as the United States and Malaysia, there are related cases, and even if the ruling party obtains fewer votes, the boundaries of the constituency are drawn so that the candidates of the ruling party may win as many seats as possible. In the 2010 US elections, the Republican Party gained greater control over the state legislature, and the state legislature was responsible for reclassifying the constituency, making the "Jerley" phenomenon in the Republican-controlled state more common.
Gerrymandering originated from the former Massachusetts Governor, Elbridge Thomas Gerry, a Democratic Republican. In 1812, he set up a bill to redraw the Massachusetts State Assembly constituency, so that the political enemy's votes were concentrated in a few constituencies to ensure that the Democratic Republican candidates win more seats. One of the districts was redrawn and shaped like a salamander. Finally, the word "Jerry" was used to mean that the regime would consider the distribution of supporters when demarcating the constituency and deliberately divide the unreasonable constituency. Scatter the opponent's voters to control the election.
An extended reading about Jelly:
[U.S. Mid-term Election] What is the "Jelly" in the demarcation of the constituency?
[01 Weekly] Hong Kong version of Gerrymandering is more than a pan-population
Malaysian government advocates re-election of opposition parties, bombarding favorable Najib election, triggering public demonstrations
In this year's District Council elections, 123 divisions have been re-planned. (data picture)
Re-planning according to 123 constituencies in population demarcation
In Hong Kong, in accordance with section 20 of the EAC's EAC Ordinance, the demarcation of constituencies in Hong Kong should meet the established criteria to ensure that the district constituencies in the proposed proposals should be such that their population should be as close as possible to the standard population base as far as practicable. . In this year's district board elections, there are 123 constituencies to re-plan.
The total population of Hong Kong is estimated at 7,502,600 and the total number of elected members is 452. Therefore, the standard population base is 16,599 (ie 7,502,600÷452). If a proposed constituency does not actually comply with the above requirements, the EAC must ensure that the population of the constituency is not more than 25% of the standard population (ie, within the range of 12,449 to 20,749). In making recommendations, the EAC should take into account the uniqueness of the community and the maintenance of local connections; and the natural characteristics of the area or parts thereof, such as size, shape, and ease of transport and development.
- The standard population base is 16,599 people
- The population-biased standard population base does not exceed 25%
- taking into account the uniqueness of the community and the maintenance of local connections
- natural features such as size, shape, and ease of transportation and development
The Tai Po Old Market and Taihu Constituency have added three areas, namely Tai Po Tau, Tai Wo Centre and Wah Lok Court, in this year's election. More than doubled in the previous area.
In 2015, Tai Po Old Market and Taihu Lake were selected.
Private building area increases by three times the size of the rural area
Among the constituencies that were revised and changed, some were controversial, and some candidates questioned the injustice. The Tai Po Old Market and Taihu Constituency have added three areas of Tai Po Tau, Tai Wo Centre and Wah Lok Court in this year's election. The estimated population has increased from 15,455 in 2015 to 2019. 17,381 people.
In terms of the uniqueness of the constituency, the old towns in the old market and the eight major housing estates in the Taihu Lake area are private housing estates, including Mei Fung Garden, Tsui Lam Court, Fu Shan Garden and Tai Wu Villa. However, the new Tai Po Tau is a village in the New Territories.
Mr. Liu Yongwei, the current district board member of Tai Po and the current district board of Taihu, said that he did not understand the reasons for the three new districts in the district. He explained that the population of the constituency itself does not exceed the average (standard population base area), and the structure is a private building area. Unlike the rural development, it is directly reorganized to re-define the separation spectrum. "There is no notice, no reason, after the consultation period is over, It has tripled the area and runs counter to the principle of zone selection."
Mr Lau said that the Tai Po Old Market and the Taihu Constituency had already met the district requirements of the EAC and failed to understand the reasons for re-demarcation. (photo by Liao Junsheng)
District Councillors reprimanded the government as a citizen
Liu Yongwei is worried that the public will have to adapt to and recognize the new constituency and cause inconvenience to the residents. He pointed out that the public has to re-recognize the members of the other district. The issue of follow-up by the members of the public has been interrupted. "The understanding and understanding have changed. There is no known degree of support." However, he believes that the biggest problem in rezoning the constituency is It is a disrespect for the public. "The Government should not kick the people into the ball and the people are the chips."
Tai Po Tau Village will be transferred to Tai Po Old Market and Taihu Constituency. Liu Yongwei refers to it is more difficult for outsiders to publicize and carry out regional work in the village. However, they will still try hard and hope that the residents of the district can leave the establishment. (photo by Liao Junsheng)
Difficult to enter the original resident village to post the street station
In the 2015 District Council election, Liu Yongwei won 2,170 votes and defeated Zhang Guohui, who was re-elected by the DAN, and became the member of the Tai Po Old Market and Taihu District. In this year's district board election, Liu Wenjie of the New Democratic Party will challenge Liu Yongwei.
After re-demarcation, Liu Yongwei believed that the election was greatly difficult and questioned that the move was a political task. He said that the newly-entered villages, the former members of the constituency of the constituency were exactly their village heads, and the villagers supported the establishment system extremely high and were regarded as the establishment of the post office. Liu Yongwei bluntly said that even if he traveled through these villages, the villagers were not very friendly to him. It was difficult to carry out regional work in front of him. "The population of the new district is more than 5,000. The relationship between the clan in South China is very close. The connection between the village and the district council is more tight than that of other district members. Some people are very loyal to the village chief. But the original." However, he is still optimistic about the election, but also fortunate that the new voters can "get rid of the perpetual reincarnation."
Tai Po Tau Shui Wai, Tai Yan Court and Tai Po Garden will be allocated to Po Ya District, bringing the population of the area to about 4,000.
In 2015, Baoya selected the boundary.
Baoya’s population has increased by 3,000. Democrats are good for the establishment.
Another constituency in Tai Po also has a re-demarcation situation. The Baoya Constituency originally consisted of three buildings in Baoyayuan and Taihe Village. The 2016 mid-term demographics showed that the population was 13,412, which was lower than the standard population base. The EAC will allocate the Tai Po Tau Shui Wai, Tai Yan Court and Tai Po Garden to the Po Kong Constituency in the estimated population of the "Kwong Paradise" and "Lin Cun Valley" constituencies in 2019. Increased its population to 17,451.
These new districts are regarded as established ticket warehouses. Now they are suddenly being taken away. Will they attack the elections of the original constituencies? Even if Zhou Xuan didn't expect to take away a few ticket positions, it would be difficult to instigate the status of the establishment in the district. He explained that Hong Paradise and Lam Tsuen are already rural areas. There are many villages. Members also have a strong rural background. The forces are solid and stable. Even if they have taken the Tai Po Tau Shui Wai, they will have little impact. He believes that the relevant forces will The impact has been assessed.
Zhou Xuanqi questioned that the establishment of the postal box was entered into Baoya, in order to combat the democratic election, but he is still optimistic about this election. (photo by Liao Junsheng)
The villagers are not very resistant
In response to the rezoning of the constituency, Zhou Xuanyi worked in the area in this year. He bluntly said that compared with Liu Yongwei's rural constituency, he was more likely to contact the villagers in Taishui Shuiwei, such as assisting the villagers in handling drainage and pendulum stations. The villagers were not too resistant to him. At the same time, he said that he would sell advertisements on the Internet. "Facebook can promote people in a certain area and be more targeted." He continued, and some new voters may not be too concerned about district administration or politics, so they must be flexible.
Zhou Xuan started working in the region in 2014. He was in the first nine months of the year. He won 2,683 votes in the last district board election, and defeated the former DAB District Councillor Huang Ronggen who had been in charge of Panyu Baoya for more than 20 years with a difference of 391 votes. He is worried that there are "senior people" who are politically motivated to stand for election. They may not be able to do so. "There are many new voters, but they may not all fall into the democrats. Instead, we personally judge the middle, middle-aged, four or fifty-year-old neighborhoods. How to look at it. There have been some violent sabotages recently. Some people think that it is done by demonstrators. There are also some neighborhoods that do business. In the past few months, the business has been bleak. Will it turn from light blue to deep blue?" (Photo by Liao Junsheng )
Sha Tin can be combined with publicity materials after demarcation.
The Sha Tin boundary has also undergone major changes this year. The district will add three constituencies such as Shui Quan O, Haicang and Di Yi. Shui Chuen O will be drawn from the previous Yi Ming; Di Yi will be drawn from Bihu and Guangkang Constituency; Chun'an and Antai will take the place of Guanlan Yaxuan, Tianyuhai, Haidianwan, Jiahua Xingtaowan and Qiongwan, etc. into the new district, and the Bokang Constituency will join the Xiewu Village of the former Yiming. Sha Tin Wai, Sha Tin Wai San Tsuen and the ash kiln area.
Bokang District Council member Zhao Zhubang said that even though Bokang was designated as a majority of housing estates and villages, the new constituency boundary may not be detrimental to its election. He explained that the new area is next to his constituency and it is easier to reach the residents of the area. The member of the Bing Ming Constituency is a democratic party member, Qiu Wenjun, who has pointed out that the assistants of the Honourable Qiu Wenjun, Zhao Zhubang, have been elected by the democratic constituencies in the neighboring constituencies. After the re-demarcation of the constituencies, they have made joint propaganda to let the residents know that after re-demarcation, The constituency to which it belongs, so it is considered that the problem is not big.
In 2019, the new districts of Xiewu Village, Shatianwei, Shatianwei New Village and the lower ash kiln were added.
The democrats are not optimistic about winning more than half of the seats in Hong Kong.
Both Liu Yongwei, Zhou Xuanqi and Zhao Zhubang believe that the number of new voter registrations has risen. The cards are conducive to democratic elections. Some constituencies may have obtained more than half of the seats, including Sha Tin. However, they are less than half of the seats in Hong Kong. optimism. Zhou Hyun-soo said that there were many political "amateurs" in this anti-reform exercise. He only fell for a few months. He worried that "amateurs" might not be able to smash long-established established opponents, especially in rural areas. "Of course. Some districts with a good number of past votes and the last few losses will definitely be able to turn over this year."
Zhao Zhubang said that the democrats must take root in the community and avoid the anti-climax after the 2003 election. (photo by Liao Junsheng)
Zhao Guibang: Need to avoid the mistakes of 03 years to do regional work
Many democrats regard this election as a continuation of the anti-reform movement. Liu Yongwei also bluntly said that this election will be a "conscience referendum." There have also been elections in Hong Kong under political turmoil. In 2003, a series of social problems, such as SARS, 23 pieces of legislation and economic recession, were considered to be the reason for triggering the resignation of the then Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa. The 7.1 parade in that year was as high as 500,000, and the District Council election democrats won the majority. However, in 2007, the founding group immediately turned over and regained multiple constituencies.
Zhao Zhubang believes that the democrats must master the mistakes after 2003 and do a good job in the region. He believes that the district boards can not be maintained by political issues alone. Just after the 2003 victory, the momentum cannot be maintained. Moreover, the democrats in some constituencies failed to do a good job in the region and ushered in a major defeat. Therefore, he believes that even if the democrats win this time, they must do a good job in regional work, and even promote the reform of the district boards, increase the power of the parliament, and strive to follow up the development of regional facilities.
In the Shatin District Council, the establishments and the pan-people are now equally divided, each occupying 19 seats. Zhao Zhu is confident that the current Shatian District Council elections will allow the Democrats to obtain more than half of the seats. (photo by Liao Junsheng)
In the 2019 District Council elections, candidates for Sha Tin Bokang were Guo Xuanqi and Zhao Zhubang; candidates for Baoya were Ye Junjie and Zhou Xuanqi; candidates for the Old Market and Taihu Lake were Liu Wenjie and Liu Yongwei.
[U.S. Mid-term Election] What is the "Jelly" in the demarcation of the constituency?
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District 18 Press District Council Election 2019 - Sha Tin District - Po Hong District Council Election 2019 - Tai Po District - Po Ya District Council Election 2019 - Tai Po District - Old Market and Tai Po District Council Election 2019
