01 perspective
Written by: Commentary Editor
2019-11-26 16:00
Last updated: 2019-11-26 16:01Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has made great contributions to the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, warned at the Innovation Economic Forum held in Beijing on Thursday (21) that the Sino-US wrestling conflict could turn into war. He compared it with the First World War in Europe, saying that "World War I broke out because of a relatively small crisis, and today's weapons are more powerful." Indeed, the Sino-US wrestling has recently become more and more tight. The start of the Sino-U.S. Trade war ignited the prelude to the Sino-U.S. Wrestling. The "war" spread to a series of technological competitions including 5G, artificial intelligence, space, and other territorial security and geopolitical issues in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Hong Kong and Taiwan issues that concern China's sovereignty. Even though the Chinese and US dollar capitals intend to slightly cool the situation in the two countries, as US official and unofficial stakeholders target China through various channels, President Trump seems incapable of comprehensively and effectively controlling the rhythm of Sino-US wrestling. The international community must be vigilant. This kind of comprehensive wrestling may be like directing the Sino-US wrestling to the most unsatisfactory hot war situation.
Wang Qishan met with visiting Kissinger in Zhongnanhai. (Xinhua News Agency)
Trump gradually appeased from China hawks
Trump has been wearing a hawkish attitude towards China since he took office. He deliberately used the famous trade policy hawks such as Peter Navarro and Robert Lighthizer and launched last year to impose tariffs. Sino-US trade war as the main means. For a moment, Trump's attitude towards the Chinese hawks was quite strong, especially he seemed to be afraid of the opposition of most domestic companies and Wall Street giants, and continued to levy tariffs on his own. To date, the United States has imposed tariffs of 15% to 25% on all goods imported from China (except for some exemptions) worth approximately US $ 550 billion per year, and threatens to increase tariffs even further.
Although Trump once put on such a tough hawkish skin against China, as China and the United States began peace talks on trade issues at the end of last year, Trump ’s response after China was rumored to be “anti-Taiwan” in May this year, it is clear that Lamp's appeasement in the Sino-US trade war. After May, Trump's high profile gradually failed to cover up his dilemma. At the end of May, it was rumored that China significantly revised the agreement, which was a major provocation for the United States. Trump is said to be even more irritable now. However, even if there is a lot of truth, Trump has not given up negotiating with China, and has always talked about hoping to have another special meeting with the Chinese president at the G20 summit at the end of June. It is also worth noting that despite Trump's repeated speeches, China has always been cautious and confirmed Xi ’s special meeting shortly before the meeting.
No doubt Trump looks very anxious. This is because the US presidential election is approaching, and he hopes to show some results to voters in the trade war. On the other hand, the U.S. trade war tactics using tariffs as the main body have become ineffective and unsustainable. Of course, China also suffered inestimable losses in the trade war, but the United States also suffered considerable consequences under high tariff policies. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a research report on November 25, stating that from June 2018 to September 2019, China's import prices fell by only about 2%. The U.S. imposes a 25% tariff on Chinese goods. If it is true that Trump has claimed to be paid by Chinese exporters, the import price of Chinese goods should fall by at least 20%; even if both China and the United States share it equally, It has to fall by more than 10%. The actual data shows that U.S. businesses and customers have to pay the additional cost of tariffs: companies reduce their own profits or increase selling prices to refer costs to consumers. Trump has always claimed that the tariffs are borne by the Chinese side, but basically scientific research done by the United States has proved that most of the tariffs are additional taxes to Americans, and the so-called "tariffs" are actually disguised. "China-US War Tax."
Multiple studies have shown that Americans bear most of the additional tariffs. (Reuters)
In an interview with Russian Satellite News Agency, Alexander Salitzki, an expert at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that "the potential of the United States' negative effects on China and its anti-China resources have been exhausted." Some measures indicate that these pressures are hopeless. In fact, it is unlikely that Trump is unaware of these dilemmas, which is why he is eager to reach a decent trade agreement with China, even if it is only a preliminary agreement in the first stage. Many domestic comments have also noticed the recent changes in Trump, pointing out that he is actually very pragmatic. Although he sometimes speaks more "out of place", he does not have the determination to fight the Chinese side completely, but only intends to pragmatically maximize his interests . Trump gradually revealed his hole cards, which also turned him from hawk to appeaser in the eyes of some people.
Comprehensive intransigence beyond the president
Trump's pragmatism brings a bit of rationality to the trade war. It is estimated that even if the trade war is not completely resolved, it will not be too ugly to drag on. However, it is difficult to say how much the Sino-US wrestling will be eased by Trump's pragmatic style. The unity of the United States and China's policies cannot be compared at all. Under the situation of "many administrations and multiple doors", the United States, from official institutions to unofficial institutions, cannot be grasped by Trump alone. It's as if Vice President Pence was more hawkish than China on Trump and often made hawkish remarks on China when China and the United States improved slightly. Regardless of whether Pence is really challenged as some rumored relationship with Trump, his attitude towards China has weakened without being affected by Trump.
Many US official agencies have not followed Trump's more pragmatic stance in blocking Huawei's 5G, intervening in Taiwan, and militarizing the South China Sea. The most prominent of these is that the main body of Congress is obviously more radical than Trump on China. Although Trump has expressed or implied that he does not want to interfere in Hong Kong, the Congress passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act 2019 with almost all votes, and even overshadowed Trump's trade talks with China.
The US suppression of China in various fields will not stop for a long time. But what is really worrying is that after Trump ignited the torch of the "trade war", it seemed to set off a wave of anti-China in the United States as a whole, causing a full-scale wrestling between China and the United States. If it is not handled properly, it may eventually lead to the hot war that Kissinger said . On the other side, some candidates for next year's US elections, such as Elizabeth Warren, seem to have taken a more stance on the Chinese hawks than Trump. Moreover, her position on the business sector is more likely to make her even less concerned about the unanimous opposition of the business community to continued confrontation with China after her election. At this moment, the pragmatic Trump's retention may seem like a good choice for China and the United States to exercise restraint.
Less than a year before the 2020 election, Trump polls are still hovering low. (AP)
[U.S. presidential primaries] Warren Sanders has performed well.
[U.S. presidential primaries] more blueprint for vision than impeach Trump Democrats
Sino-US wrestling on winning or losing? How to use time is the key
China-US trade war heats up, Alibaba rumors that Hong Kong's second listing in Hong Kong may become the biggest winner?
Sino-U.S. Structural conflicts are difficult to resolve
Liu He visits the U.S. over half of the 90-day negotiations between China and the United States to reach a partial agreement
Sino-U.S. Trade talks avoid bouncing differences between the two countries' economic systems
[2018 Review] The Truth Behind Sino-U.S. Trade War Contest "Coward Game"
01 perspective
Sino-US trade war Sino-US relations US election-Sino-US Trump 01 perspective