Politics
Written by: Lin Jian
2019-11-28 07:00
Last updated: 2019-11-28 07:00The district board elections came to an end. The Democrats have achieved an overwhelming victory in this term, with 385 of the 452 directly elected seats, or more than 85%, which is the most disparate term among the district boards. It is generally believed that the anti-legislative movement led to a high socio-political atmosphere, resulting in a turnout rate of 71.23%, adding a lot of votes to the democrats, thereby "paining" the establishment under the single-seat, single-vote system.
Compared with the last time that the pan-democracy had a "big victory" in 2003, the pan-among had a big victory under the "July 1st effect". However, in fact, Panmin accounted for only 161 of the 529 seats in the current session, and the "big victory" is not comprehensive. The number of seats in this year's pan-democracy is 1.39 times more than in 2003. The district boards that control 17 districts are regarded as "truly victory".
Fanmin has won the majority of seats this time, although it has a momentary momentum. But this brings another question: if the general public wants to extend this advantage to next year's Legislative Council elections, how can they reach the goal of half under the influence of proportional representation and functional constituencies?
Ma Yue, associate professor of the Department of Politics and Administration of the Chinese University, believes that today ’s and 2003 ’s political atmosphere is much stronger than it was then, and that the Legislative Council is more politicized than the district council. There will be more votes than this election. He reminded that it is extremely difficult for the general public to obtain half of the seats in the Legislative Council. If they really want to take this as their goal, they must pay attention to at least two factors ...
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Myth of 2003: After the "big win", only 30% of the total seats
At present, it is generally understood that in 2003 Hong Kong was plagued by issues such as Article 23 of the Basic Law, SARS, and negative assets, and 71.5 million people marched on the street. Under the influence of the "July 1st Effect", the Democrats "win the road" in the district elections; after the defeat of the establishment system, the chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Creation of the Democratic Party, Zeng Yucheng, also had to give way and be replaced by Ma Li.
However, in the overall seats, there were 529 district boards at that time. In that year, there were still 102 seats in the district boards appointed by the Chief Executive and 27 ex officio seats. Their position was more pro-organized. The democrats obtained only 161 seats, accounting for only about 30.4% of the total. Even if only 400 directly elected seats were counted, 161 seats actually accounted for only 40.25%, far less than half. Moreover, the political environment of the year was not as opposed to today's. There were more independent and non-partisan district politicians, and district councillors who depended mainly on regional work for support, and several constitutional candidates were automatically elected.
Taking a closer look at the party record at that time, the Democratic Party sent 120 people to run, 95 people were elected, and the winning rate was 79%; the DAB sent 206 people to run, only 62 people were elected, and the winning rate was only 30%. The record of the two leading political parties is so great that it is easy to form the perception that "the pandemic has triumphed and the system has been defeated." In fact, at that time, only Sham Shui Po and Kwai Tsing Districts were controlled by the people.
Democrats swept 85% of the seats in this election. (Photo by Zeng Ziyang)
Panpan wins 80% of this year's substantive control
Ma Yue also wrote an article 4 years ago that the victory of the democrats was not comprehensive. First, only the DAB party that lost the most in the past, and other formed parties such as the Hong Kong Progressive Alliance (which has been merged with the DAB in 2005), the Liberal Party, or other independent formations, did not lose much; The electoral districts are concentrated in Wan Chai, Central and Western District, Yau Tsim Mong, Sha Tin, etc. In some areas, formed members such as Tuen Mun and Wong Tai Sin are still unbreakable.
The situation of district elections this year is completely different. First of all, the district boards have no appointed seats, only 27 ex officio seats. Therefore, the elected seats are dominant, and there is a great opportunity to control the district councils. In addition, the number of seats won by the Democrats this year is far greater than in 2003. This year, the Pan Ambassador received 385 out of 452 directly elected seats, which is more than 85%. Except for the outlying islands, which are controlled by the system because they have ex officio seats, the remaining 17 districts are controlled by the Pan Ambassador. Therefore, the scale of the two "big wins" cannot be compared at the same time.
Ma Yue pointed out that although it is extremely difficult for the general public to get half of the elections in the Legislative Council, it is always closer to that than in 2004. (Profile picture)
Ma Yue: Panmin will set up more than half of the "near 2004" next year
The general public is greatly affected by the political atmosphere. The outside world is naturally concerned about whether it is possible for the general public to win half of the seats in the next legislative election and influence the government's administration. What we can learn from the past is that after the district election was won in 2003, the general public also had optimism about the 2004 Legislative Council election. However, based on the implementation of the proportional representation system in the Legislative Council, and the traditional functional constituencies are also conducive to the establishment of the system, the Pan-Fan could only get 25 of the 60 seats in the current session.
When Ma Yue was interviewed by a reporter from "Hong Kong 01", if compared with 2003 and today, this year ’s anti-government atmosphere will be stronger than in 2003. Therefore, in terms of today ’s political atmosphere, the popularity of popular votes will be greater than 16 years ago. wide. In addition, next year ’s Legislative Council elections are very different from those of 2004. One of the district board functional constituencies (elected by district councillors) was won by the constitutional faction Liu Huangfa. The majority, the district board (first) seat next year will almost certainly be obtained by the democrats. Furthermore, the "super district council members" will be largely elected by the people, and there will be no such sector in that year. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to capture half of the seats in the Legislative Council, but it is "one step closer" than in 2004.
Ma Yue said that he noticed that in the past few days, Fanfang liked to analyze the total votes obtained by this year ’s Panmin. It is believed that Panmin ’s votes were only about 60%, and at most it was a response to the past “June 4”. The victory was mainly due to the implementation of district elections. The single-seat, single-vote system is easy to return to its original form under the proportional representation system. But he believes this assumption is inaccurate because voters have different voting orientations in district boards and in the Legislative Council. He pointed out that although the political component of this year's district elections is stronger than in the past, some voters still consider regional work as the main consideration, but the Legislative Council is highly politicized. Therefore, he reasoned that if the Legislative Council elections were held today, with the same number of voters, the general public would get more votes than the district elections that had just passed.
Ma Yue pointed out that pan-people can start by attacking the functional constituency of the Legislative Council. The picture shows the information technology industry Mo Naiguang (right) defeating Yang Quansheng (left) in the 2016 Legislative Council election. (Profile picture / Photo by Li Zetong)
The general public pays attention to two major factors: forcibly attacking functional constituencies and reducing ticket grabs in regions
Regarding the actual electoral strategy, Ma Yue suggested that the pan-people should start from two aspects. First, there are nine professional constituencies in the functional constituency that are calculating personal votes. They are the information technology, engineering, education, accounting, medical, legal, social welfare, construction and testing, and health services. In the 2016 election, Panmin won at least 7 of them in the 2016 election (Yao Songyan, the construction testing community was later disqualified due to the oath), the engineering community was won by Lu Weiguo, and the medical profession Chen Peiran was a centrist. Ma Yue pointed out that Panmin needs to consider attacking the engineering community in the future and mobilize qualified supporters to register voters. As for other sectors for calculating corporate and group votes, we must also consider them within our capabilities.
In fact, recently, pro-popular netizens on social networks have called on citizens of various professional sectors to register as voters in functional constituencies. In addition, in some sectors, such as the catering industry, the electoral threshold has been reached and registered as far as possible.
Second, Ma Yue believes that coordination between the pan-people and other non-formist factions needs to be strengthened. In the past elections, because of the fragmentation of the spectrum or because of the "too much greed", the democrats have broken down the list too much, robbed each other of their votes seriously, and there have been "winning votes and losing seats": When the candidates are elected (district councillors), some of them may be red-hearted, and it is clear that your votes are only enough to win 5 seats, but in the end, there will be 10 lists. " Ma Yue pointed out that if the democrats really want to target half of the seats, they need a large-scale overall planning, rationally arranging the distribution of the list in each district, and balancing the interests of all factions. No matter how difficult it is, they must try.
Of course, the premise of all things is that the general public can delay the current political atmosphere and even continue to enlarge it until September next year. Ma Yue mentioned that most of the decision-making power of the political atmosphere is not in the people or the people, but in the government's mistakes: "In fact, many times, the political atmosphere is determined by the government and the police."
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