Politics
Written by: Lin Jian
2019-11-28 21:22
Last updated: 2019-11-28 21:24US President Trump signed the "Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy" on the 27th, local time, which means that the bill has officially entered into force and has aroused strong reactions from the Central and Special Administrative Region Governments. It is of concern to the outside world whether the bill will stimulate demonstrations in Hong Kong in the short term and bring about other political influences.
Liu Zhaojia, deputy chairman of the National Hong Kong and Macau Research Association, pointed out that there is no denying that the bill will bring a certain morale boost to demonstrators in Hong Kong, but because the United States will not enforce sanctions arbitrarily, these effects will be short-term, so the bill is a political statement. More than practical measures.
On the contrary, Liu Zhaojia believed that the bill would push Hong Kong more into the chessboard of the Sino-US game, making the central government treat Hong Kong more as a strategic way to affect national security, which led to Beijing's tougher Hong Kong policy.
"The United States has taken less substantial action against Hong Kong in the past"
Liu Zhaojia pointed out that even without the Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy, the United States itself has other laws, such as the Hong Kong Policy Act and The Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, which can sanction China. The government believes that those who violate human rights, so the bill is a political statement to a greater extent, playing the anti-China card in the friction between China and the United States to win domestic support. Even if the Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy comes into effect, it will still depend on whether the United States enforces it.
Looking back, Liu Zhaojia pointed out that the United States has often criticized Hong Kong affairs, but has not seen very specific actions. The most obvious example is Snowden, a former CIA employee who passed through Hong Kong in 2013 and was suspected of leaking U.S. state secrets. At that time, Hong Kong did not extradite him to the United States at the request of the United States, allowing him to flee to Russia. The criticism was severe, but in the end there was no actual action.
Liu believes that the exact implementation of the bill mainly depends on whether China-US relations will deteriorate significantly in the future: "(U.S.) will randomly put people on the sanctions list unless the Sino-US wrestling obviously heats up The United States elevated Hong Kong to the level of national security as an important pawn against China. "Liu Zhaojia pointed out that before the actual action, the United States must also worry about imposing sanctions on a large scale, which will lead to retaliation from China, especially the United States is still in Hong Kong Many economic benefits. He used Russia as an example. The United States would target sanctions. Generally, it is a senior official who is very close to Russian President Putin and directly threatens the United States, and will not act casually.
Short-term boost morale of demonstrators but no real impact
Regarding the short-term impact of Hong Kong's local political situation, Liu Zhaojia believes that the passage of the bill will undoubtedly bring morale boost to local demonstrators and violent protesters in the short term, making him feel that he has external support. However, as long as the United States has no actual sanctions, these effects will be extremely limited.
As for whether the bill will make the local government and business community jealous of U.S. sanctions in the future and dare not support the government too high-profile, Liu Zhaojia pointed out: "Public officials or senior government officials who will not perform national security tasks because of shocking U.S. sanctions, should not sit by themselves." Therefore, he believes that the bill will instead make more people who are not afraid of sanctions and completely loyal to the country hold important positions.
Liu Zhaojia also believed that the bill would hardly soften the central government's attitude towards Hong Kong. On the contrary, when Hong Kong becomes a bridgehead between China and the United States, the central government will even more consider Hong Kong as a national security consideration, which will make Beijing's policy towards Hong Kong stronger.
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