the weather
Written by: Lao Minyi
2019-11-29 16:39
Last updated: 2019-11-29 16:41Last winter, the cold level reached only three days, that is, the temperature was 12 degrees Celsius or below, which was the lowest on record. The Observatory released a new winter quarterly forecast (December 2019 to February 2020). It is expected that the average temperature this winter will be "normal to high" (close to normal is between 16.6 to 17.4 degrees, higher than normal is higher than 17.4 Degrees), and "normal to low" rainfall (64 to 147 millimeters near normal, less than 64 millimeters below normal).
The Observatory also predicts that under the "ENSO-neutral" state, that is, no El Niño or La Niña will occur, and Hong Kong may have more cold days this winter than last year.
The Observatory predicts that the number of cold days (temperatures of 12 degrees or less) this winter may be more than last year. (Profile picture)
2019/20 winter quarter forecast
Normal to high temperatures (16.6 to 17.4 degrees Celsius or higher)
Normal to low rainfall (64 to 147 mm or less)
It is expected that the northeast monsoon will be weaker than normal this winter
According to the Observatory, based on the latest ocean observation data and predictions from various climate models around the world, it is expected that the water temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will be generally normal this winter, even if it is slightly higher than the climate average, which is "ENSO-neutral" According to climate models around the world, the northeast monsoon over South China will be weaker than normal this winter. In addition, due to the effects of global warming and local urbanization, Hong Kong's winter temperature has a clear long-term upward trend. It is expected that Hong Kong's temperature this winter will be normal to high.
A record low of just 3 days on cold days last year
The Observatory said that although the overall temperature in Hong Kong this winter is expected to be normal to high, the weather and temperature changes from day to day can still be very large, with occasional cold days. Under the "ENSO-neutral" state, Hong Kong may have more cold weather (temperatures below 12 degrees) this winter than last year. According to the Observatory, on average, there are 15 days in winter each year, but there were only 3 days of cold weather in the last winter, which is the lowest since the record.
In terms of rainfall, climate models around the world do not have a consensus on the precipitation forecast for South China this winter. Historical statistics have shown that in the "ENSO-neutral" state, the chances of winter rainfall in Hong Kong being normal to low are slightly higher. The results are in agreement, so it is expected that Hong Kong will have normal to low rainfall this winter.
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Hong Kong Observatory weather forecast
