the weather
Written by: Golden Chess
2019-11-30 01:38
Last updated: 2019-11-30 01:41December is about to enter. Generally speaking, Hong Kong has passed the wind season. However, according to the Observatory's forecast, the northern crown of the typhoon located in the waters east of the Philippines will intensify into a super typhoon in the next few days, and will pass through the southern Luzon of the Philippines and enter the South China Sea. 800 kilometers south of the Fan Line.
Will the North Crown become the latest typhoon that has always affected Hong Kong? According to the forecast by the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecast (ECMWF) on Friday (29th), after the North Coron approached the Hong Kong defense line next week, it will turn 90 degrees counterclockwise to the south and move towards the south of the South China Sea, away from the Hong Kong defense line, and the Observatory ’s tropical cyclone path probability The forecast also has similar predictions, which shows that the possibility of the North Crown threatening Hong Kong is unlikely. The sharp turn of the North Coron is expected to be related to the "typhoon killer" heading south. The Observatory predicts that a strong monsoon supplement will make the temperature in South China gradually drop next week, "forcing" the North Coronation south.
The Observatory predicts that the typhoon North Crown may enter the South China Sea next week and approach 800 kilometers from Hong Kong. (Photo / Photo by Liang Pengwei)
At 11:00 pm on the northern crown on Friday, it assembled about 550 kilometers north-northwest of Yapu Island. (Photo of JTWC FB Page of Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Northern crown will intensify until super typhoon sweeps south of Luzon
The observatory stated that at 11:00 pm on Friday, the typhoon north corona gathered about 550 kilometers north-northwest of Yapu Island. It moved slowly at first, then moved westward at a speed of about 14 kilometers per hour, and moved roughly to the east of the Philippines. The observatory also predicted that the northern crown will intensify a super typhoon tonight (30th) and reach a super typhoon power tomorrow (December 1), and then hit southern Luzon, the Philippines. The northern crown will leave the southern Luzon next Tuesday (December 3), enter the South China Sea, and weaken into a strong typhoon, moving northwestward; next Wednesday (December 4) at 8 o'clock, it will further weaken into a severe tropical storm and approach The Hong Kong Defence Line is 800 km south of Hong Kong. The Observatory has not announced any subsequent movement path forecasts.
The observatory predicts that the northern coronal will gradually strengthen in the next two or three days, and will generally move to the middle to north of the Philippines. (Screenshot of the Observatory's website)
Observatory and ECMWF are expected to move north to south
However, the probabilistic forecast of the tropical cyclone path of the observatory shows that the north coronal will pass through the "port gate" and will not enter. Near the 800 km defense line of Hong Kong, the probability of turning to the south is high, that is, it is not expected to approach north China.
The director of the underground observatory, Fang Zhigang, quoted the European Medium-Term Weather Forecasting Center (ECMWF) on FB as saying whether the North Crown will affect Hong Kong. You can pay attention to the prediction results of the center's simulation data. The relevant results show that the direction of the North Coron approaching Hong Kong is roughly the same as the probability of the tropical cyclone path of the Observatory, and they will turn southward and leave the Hong Kong line of defense. Therefore, it is unlikely that the North Crown will become the latest typhoon to affect Hong Kong.
The observatory's tropical cyclone path probabilistic forecast shows that the northern crown will pass through the "port gate" and will not enter. It will have a higher chance of moving south. (Picture from the observatory)
In Hong Kong, the Observatory means that the dry northeast monsoon brings generally fine weather to the south China coast during the weekend. It is expected that due to the strong monsoon replenishment, the temperature in South China will gradually drop next week, and the wind will be quite strong. The weather in this area will be quite cool later in the week.
The North Coron is approaching the Hong Kong defense line next Tuesday. The observatory expects clear and dry on that day, and cools in the morning and evening. The temperature ranges from 15 to 21 degrees, and the relative humidity is 40% to 70%. The temperature dropped to between 14 and 20 degrees, and the relative humidity dropped to 35% to 65%. It has not been seen that the weather in Hong Kong will be affected by the North Crown.
The Observatory predicts that "warm winter" will have another chance of a cold day or more than last year
[Cold weather knowledge] September to November is still the typhoon season. The autumn typhoon is more powerful than the summer.
Hong Kong Observatory weather forecast typhoon
